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2024년 1월 기준 비트코인 현물 ETF 승인 관련 가짜뉴스 사건(코인텔레그래프 오보)과 SEC 입장, 블랙록 CEO 래리 핑크의 암호화폐 '안전자산' 발언, Genesis·Terraform 소송, 바이낸스 영국 신규고객 중단, FTX 파산 클로백 합의안, Uniswap 수수료 논란을 전달. 시장 예측보다 뉴스 전달 중심이며, 캐시 우드의 ETF 승인 가능성 발언이 주요 예측성 주장.
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4 3 2 1 Welcome Back to the breakdown with me n Tuesday October 17th and today we are talking about the new official spokesperson for Bitcoin Black Rock CEO Larry thinkink if you listened to yesterday's show or if you were alive on Twitter you probably saw when coin Telegraph dropped a tweet that the SEC had approved black Rock's Bitcoin spot ETF application now of course news that the Black Rock product had been approved not only a spot ETF approval but the one from the biggest asset manager in the world sent bitcoin's price skyrocketing past 30,000 a 7% move in a matter of minutes now importantly the Tweet did not give any sources and despite hundreds if not thousands of people gleefully sharing the news immediately after none of them had the source alas within an hour it became clear that the news was indeed fake and Bitcoin collapsed back down to $228,000 the SEC continued its campaign of snark tweeting careful what you read on the internet the best source of information about the SEC is the SEC now in the evening coin telegraphed published their apology they claimed that they had published the news based on a tweet containing a screenshot which claimed to be from a Bloomberg terminal it seems likely they are referring to a message posted to a telegram Group which was uncovered throughout the day the telegram user was Anonymous and deleted their account shortly after the post coin Telegraph released screenshots of their internal chat log which showed staff quick quickly identifying that the report was incorrect coin Telegraph said that the post had violated their social media procedure and claimed that the outlet would be quote thoroughly auditing and reviewing our social media management process now the community was not particularly excited about their explanation investor Mike dudas said an absolute dumpster fire response from coin Telegraph after botching the Bitcoin ETF news crypto security expert Taylor Monahan said you can be an influencer you can be a personality you can be a PR agency you can be an ad Network you can be a meme Queen you can be a pump and dumper honey you can be literally whatever you want so long as you do not present that BS as effing journalism now the reason that people were a little Huffy about this is that across the entire move over 100 million in Bitcoin derivatives positions had been liquidated indeed some noted that there had been a large amount of accumulation on Sunday night and Monday morning which some saw as evidence of preparation for the event the biggest concern that many had is that this might negatively impact those Bitcoin ETF approvals that the SEC was considering Anthony Sano tweeted Gary gendler getting ready to deny all the ETFs by citing this fake news incident as evidence of how easy it is to manipulate the crypto markets before coin telegraph's explanation Adam Cochran wrote I look forward to them providing documentation on where that report came from because they just massively hurt the chances of real ETF approval and or blatantly scammed people others however were quick to point out that it didn't exactly work that way Jeff Dorman the CIO of ARA responded to Adam and wrote incorrect the market manipulation that the SEC has historically referenced has nothing to do with a rogue media Outlet inaccurately reporting news that people and Bots then trade on it doesn't matter what asset class you're trading erroneous headlines create whipsaw price action there's plenty of precedent here in other asset classes in 2013 the AP Twitter was hacked and headline said the White House was attacked caused hundreds of billions of losses in equities and debt Finance lawyer at Davis pulk Scott Johnson explained explained even further on the suggestion that today represents heightened risk the SEC May further deny based on fraud and manipulation can't emphasize more how dead and buried that line of thinking is cremated and 6 fet below ground in an undisclosed location never to be seen again even if you assume the worst facts someone specifically attempted to manipulate prices in a very obvious way to promulgate fake news the argument will still not be presented as a basis to deny this would represent a Defiance of the DC Circuit Court ruling now what he meant is that the circuit ruling wasn't that there was no fraud and manipulation in the Bitcoin markets it's that there wasn't any difference in spot markets as compared to Futures markets which are already approved the standard isn't about getting markets to zero fraud and manipulation the standard is around surveillance sharing agreements and the ability to detect manipulation so this shouldn't be material to the applications still it's hard not to feel like there was some narrative Damage Done Scott melker tweeted imagine you sitting at a hedge fund or other real institution and you see this complete nonsense you see Bitcoin pump $2,000 on likely fake news then you see a retrace entirely do you think you want to be a part of this Market embarrassing and infuriating now mker wasn't the only person it seems who felt like this was enough of a deal to actually make a comment in fact after the dust had settled Black Rock CEO Larry thinkink made an appearance on Fox Business to comment on the events of the day he claimed that the Bitcoin rally went quote Way Beyond the rumor he said quote it's an example of the pent up interest in crypto we're hearing from clients around the world about the need for crypto indeed he went on saying that his argument was that broader geopolitical uncertainty was driving a quote flight to Quality alongside mentioning treasuries and gold he added that quote I believe crypto will play that type of role as a flight to Quality now even though think has spoken positively about Bitcoin specifically in the recent past this still was quite a surprise to many industry Watchers Dan McCardle tweeted I really didn't foresee Larry Fink of all people becoming bitcoin's marketing department push pushing it as a flight to Quality due to difficult geopolitical times but here we are framework Ventures co-founder van Spencer wrote surreal Larry fin talking about crypto as a flight to Quality now for all of you bitcoiners wondering why he said crypto and not Bitcoin even though they have a Bitcoin ETF application Brad Mills shared a clip that he said explained why he used crypto instead of Bitcoin which was Larry literally explicitly saying that because of this application he can't speak to bitcoin specifically but he can talk about crypto more broadly James saart an ETF at Bloomberg said this is still weird to me look all I mean is if you came to me 6 months ago and told me that Larry fin will do multiple national television appearances where he preaches about the virtues and benefits of Bitcoin and crypto more broadly I probably would have laughed at you well Clemente got right to the point saying if you think Larry think Shilling Bitcoin on live TV is cool wait until black Rock's entire Army of financial advisers is doing it it was a really interesting day num Ma on what was a fascinating little episode and I think Alex Krueger has the right of it when he tweeted one thing is for sure whoever thinks the ETF is already priced in has just been proven wrong expect a 20% plus day move when it's approved today's staying on the SEC theme for just a moment Arc invest founder Kathy Wood thinks the problem at the SEC when it comes to crypto is entirely about chairman Gary gendler speaking on a podcast earlier this week would discuss the ongoing difficulties with getting crypto ETFs approved she said for me the disconnect is SEC staff know so much and they're so good that I believe this was much more G Gensler standing in the way I don't know for sure because they could never say something like that I just know from how we have discussed Bitcoin with them that they really understand it and they understand its merits now wood agreed with the Court's ruling in the grayscale case that the decision to approve Futures based ETFs while holding up spot-based ETFs was baffling she continued why he allowed a Bitcoin Futures ETF which involves counterparty risk and not a Bitcoin ETF which does not involve counterparty risk in fact ours would be backed by Bitcoin one for one in Cold Storage at coinbase that's why grayscale won its case it is that argument now wood was hopeful that gendler's obstinance has finally become untenable adding I think Gary gendler's personal Vietnam is coming around to haunt him I do think the SEC is moving now Kathy also repeated her thoughts that a single approval is unlikely and that she expects the SEC to approve a batch of ETFs all on the same day that would align with what we saw earlier this month with the recent simultaneous launch of multiple ethereum Futures ETFs on the same day as well Eric balunis the senior ETF Analyst at Bloomberg called this notable non fake news basically he said that the fact that Kathy Wood was saying that SEC staff got it and that gendler was standing in the way was quote notable because Gary has started saying he looks forward to staff's recommendations in public settings so positive Cathy thinks the staff think it's okay all this is why our odds are up to 90% by January now staying in the realm of regulators and compliance for a moment Genesis lender and two sister companies have been ordered to comply with the subpoena related to the sec's lawsuit against Luna ecosystem Creator terraform labs Genesis was originally given a deadline of October 9th to produce documents related to the case the judge's order stated that no documents had been produced so far Genesis will now have 5 days to produce the documents under subpoena now the information sought from Genesis isn't contained in the court order the subpoena was issued by terraform rather than by the SEC implying that it is likely related to trading activities surrounding the failure of the Luna ecosystem some suggested that terraform may be seeking information related to loans issued by Genesis to now bankrupt trading firm 3 arrows Capital which had exposure to the Luna collapse now so far the SEC has had difficulty getting to the bottom of the Luna collapse terraform lab's co-founder Do Kwan remains locked up in Montenegro on charges of traveling under false documents and has therefore been unavailable to give evidence in a deposition the judge overseeing the case insisted that some way of interviewing Quan should be figured out but has so far been unable to pin down Arrangements he noted in a September order that quote the laws of physics do not make it impossible for him now over in a different jurisdiction binance has stopped accepting new customers from the UK in compliance with new marketing rules under the new regulations crypto firms are required to authorize their advertising materials using a domestically registered entity binance had attempted to partner with a local peer-to-peer lending firm called rebuilding Society but the UK Financial conduct Authority nipped that plan in the bud last week the FCA said that rebuilding Society was not authorized to sign off on crypto ads leaving binance with no option but to refrain from onboarding new UK customers a binance spokesperson said we're working closely with the FCA to ensure that our users are not harmed by these developments and are looking to find another suitable FCA authorized firm to approve our financial promotions as soon as possible end quote now existing customers will be able to access Services if they've completed the investor declaration and appropriateness test which is another branch of these new regulations still these customers will be unable to access additional services for the time being such as margin lending or derivatives trading autism Capital tweeted binance says they're no longer accepting UK users the circle continues to tighten around cz's Empire in a post FTX World Gabe Shapiro The General Counsel at Deli lab said it's not just CZ UK's new crypto rules are very tough to comply with on the other hand Steve K wrote no more binance accounts in the UK then looks like regulated crypto is here to stay and I guess it's all about to pay off for those exchanges that chose to play it by the books in the end now speaking of FTX tomorrow I am doing a trial update that will include both testimony from former blocki CEO Zach Prince from last week as well as from the testimony of head of engineering nishad Singh who who has already pled guilty to a variety of charges still on the bankruptcy front on Monday the FTX bankruptcy team announced a settlement proposal for customer clawbacks customers who withdrew funds worth less than $250,000 during the final 9-day of operations would make no repayment and would be free to retain their funds customers who withdrew more than 250,000 within the 9-day period could settle clawback claims by repaying 15% of the withdrawn funds customers who had entier knowledge about the insolvency or who modified their kyc information to facilitate withdrawals would would not be eligible to accept this settlement FDX did not provide an update on how much customer creditors could expect in a final payout but noted that they quote anticipate that customers of both exchanges will not be paid in full they said that they expect that non-customer creditors will incur a larger percentage of losses than customers the current plan is still subject to approval by the court and creditors committees and if approved the estate anticipates that 90% of assets could be distributed by the middle of next year now while generally customer clawbacks aren't seen as a good thing and they introduce all sorts of new challenges and risks this news has been greeted widely as a positive development IA guys Travis clling wrote big update on the FTX bankruptcy debtor waving customer clawbacks for withdrawals less than 250k in a 15-day window withdrawals over 250k can settle for a 15% haircut biggest deal about that 15% settlement offer is it implies 85% plus recovery first time we've seen that number put out there implicitly or explicitly by the debtors that's a big number and it likely gives little to no credit for FTX 2.0 great news now lastly today a little bit of drama over at Unis swap uniswap Labs which is of course the firm behind the decentralized exchange has begun charging a 0.15% fee on trades involving ethereum usdc and some other tokens the fee will be different to the existing protocol fee which is controlled by governance token holders although that has not been distributed to them to date this separate fee will be collected directly by Unis swap Labs which they state is an effort to quote sustainably fund our operations only swaps that execute through the Unis swap front end will pay the fee now there has been some controversy and it relates to perceived hypocrisy on the part of Unis swap Labs specifically governance token holders have often agitated for protocol fees to be distributed as a way of returning value to the notional owners of the protocol uniswap Labs have sometimes been viewed as standing in the way of that choice claiming that Distributing fees could put the governance tokens at risk of being labeled an unregistered security by Regulators Unis swap founder Hayden Adams pushed back on criticism in a tweet saying this interface fee is one of the lowest in the industry and it will allow us to continue to research develop build ship improve and expand crypto and defi it really feels trying to dig into the conversation here that the outrage is less about them taking this fee and more about broken promises Eric Connor tweeted so let me get this right Unis swamp launches uni and an original launch post Hypes a fee switch that gets people excited Unis swap VCS tied closely to Labs continue to make sure fee switch doesn't happen then Unis swap Labs enables a fee for themselves cryptotrader John says the fee switch is never getting turned on but instead they'll take their own separate 0.15% % absolutely comical this plus kyc hooks means Unis swap is getting replaced as the default deck's next cycle in my opinion there'll be room for actual competitors let me just say right now that I think defi drama is going to be a big part of the next cycle both here and in the regulatory sphere so hey maybe we're just getting prepped for that to come for now that is going to do it for today's breakdown thanks one more time to my sponsor cracken go to kraken.com thebreakdown and see what crypto can be and thanks of course to you guys for listening until next time be safe and take care of each other peace
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