저자: NLW—출연자별도없음;소속미상 · 외국인
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결론: 기관 자금의 암호화폐 유입은 더 이상 서사가 아닌 현실이며, 브리지워터 등은 오히려 과열 서사를 낮추려 한다. [기관화·서사 전환] 기관 진입은 이제 크립토 시장을 이끄는 서사가 아니라 사실상 현실이라고 진행자는 주장한다. 브리지워터 같은 신규 진입자는 이번 사이클의 서사적 과열을 의도적으로 낮추려는 모습이다. 골드만삭스의 OTC 비트코인 거래는 기본적 뉴스로, 전통 시장 참여자에게 크립토 노출의 정상화 효과를 줄 것으로 본다. [레이 달리오의 입장 변화] 달리오는 2021년 1월 비트코인을 '사라진 금'의 대안으로 평가하며 고위험 장기 옵션으로 보았다. 2021년 5월 컨센서스 행사에서는 비트코인을 일부 보유하며 채권보다 선호한다고 밝혔다. 다만 주권 채권 보유자들이 대거 이탈하면 정부가 규제에 나설 것이라는 우려를 반복했다. [브리지워터 투자 보도] 코인데스크 보도에 따르면 브리지워터가 외부 운용사를 통한 첫 크립토 펀드 지원을 준비 중이다. 소식통에 따르면 2022년 상반기 중 일부 자금을 디지털 자산에 직접 배분할 계획도 있다. 브리지워터는 아직 공식 확인을 하지 않았다. [규제·DeFi·NFT] 바이든 행정명령은 미국의 전면 금지 가능성이 매우 낮다는 신호로 해석된다. 모건스탠리 리서치는 DeFi가 규제와 과담보가 장애물이라며 작은 규모에 머물 것이라고 회의적으로 평가했다. NFT·메타버스·P2E 등 개별 테마는 과열 이후 피로감과 조정 국면에 있다고 진행자는 진단한다. [거시 환경] 지정학적 재편과 인플레이션, 파월의 매파적 발언으로 불확실성이 큰 과도기다. 진행자는 이런 시기에는 장기적 관점을 유지하는 것이 최선이라고 조언한다.
다듬은 글
this is post-narrative institutionalization and what i mean by that is that this institutional entry into the market is no longer the narrative driving crypto markets it's simply a fact of reality in fact these new entrants like bridgewater seem to be more intentionally trying to downplay the narrative hype around this cycle welcome back to the breakdown with me nlw it's a daily podcast on macro bitcoin and the big picture powershifts remaking our world the breakdown is sponsored by nexo dot io arcules and ftx and produced and distributed by coindesk what's going on guys it is tuesday march 22nd and today we are talking about post-narrative institutionalization of crypto in the context of news that ray dalio's bridgewater might be investing in the space as well as a goldman sachs otc trade if you're wondering what the heck that word salad means well you'll just have to wait and find out first however if you are enjoying the breakdown please go subscribe give it a rating give it a review or if you want to get deeper into the conversation come join us at the breakers discord you can find a link in the show notes or go to bit dot lee breakdown pod also a disclosure as always in addition to them being a sponsor i also work with ftx okay so today we are bringing together two of the themes and narratives that have driven the last couple years in crypto markets the first as you caught from the introduction was institutionalization the move of traditional finance into the crypto space this was something that was long wanted rumored hoped for but didn't really start to happen in a big way until 2020 and then of course it led the narrative through the end of that year in the beginning of the next the second theme is geopolitical change and its impact on the macro landscape coven 19 opened up fundamental questions about the nature of supply chains the structure of the global economy then the fallout of the disruptions in those systems alongside market supportive policies chosen during them spurred the inflation which has and continues to be the dominant market context and of course now we add the geopolitical realignment coming out of the russia ukraine crisis which is of course a largely economic story given not only sanctions and the implications of those sanctions on the global monetary order but also in terms of supply chains and the raw materials that were formerly coming out of russia one person who has put themselves at the center of these types of conversations is bridgewater's ray dalio dalio published a book last november called principles for dealing with the changing world order why nations succeed and fail which as you can tell from the title is very much in this wheelhouse of big picture powershifts so let's talk for just a minute about dalio's overarching framework and this is based on reading of his materials and of course it's continuously evolving and changing but his basic framing has been that we are at the end of a long-term debt cycle and at that state we find the us as a declining power with china as a rising power with a historic analogy being the shift from focus on the uk to the us in the early 1900s there is a bit of a fourth turning-esque picture that dalio paints in that these changes involve social upheaval internal and external conflict the breakdown of institutions and the change in financial systems alongside the assumptions that underpin those systems now dalio has often been criticized for having an overly generous opinion on china which i think has often been reasonable however the more generous take on his position on china is that if the u.s is declining there was always going to be someone coming up to assume that mantle dalio sees things like china's commitment to r d and ai and energy as indicators of their trajectory of course this ignores a lot from leadership to demography basically all the reasons that someone like peter zaihan thinks pretty much exactly the opposite about china's near-term prospects but that's not what this podcast is about the point is that the changing world order is where dalio is spending a lot of his time and energy and it's reasonable then to question what are his thoughts on bitcoin and crypto which so many of us of course see as central to the discussion of that changing world order the short answer is that those views have been evolving for a long time he really wasn't on the train but that started to shift the beginning of last year in january 2021 dalio wrote a piece on linkedin called what i really think of bitcoin and it was basically meant to put things in his own words so that it wouldn't be continuously characterized by either the people who hated bitcoin or the people who loved bitcoin here's a quick excerpt of that piece which got so many people excited about a year ago i believe bitcoin is one hell of an invention to have invented a new type of money via a system that is programmed into a computer and that has worked for around 10 years and is rapidly gaining popularity as both a type of money and a storehold of wealth is an amazing accomplishment that like creating the existing credit-based monetary system is of course a type of alchemy i.e making money out of little or nothing it like the making of credit that made bankers rich starting with the medicis around 1350 is making its inventors and those who got in on it very early rich and has the potential to make many more people very rich and to disrupt the existing monetary system there aren't many alternative gold-like assets at this time of rising need for them because of all the debt and money creations that are underway and will happen in the future because of what is going on in the world besides there being a growing need for money or storehold of wealth assets that are limited in supply there is also a growing need for assets that can be privately held because there aren't many of these gold-like storehold of wealth assets that can be held in privacy and because the sizes of their markets are relatively small there exists the possibility that bitcoin and its competitors can fill that growing need it seems to me that bitcoin has succeeded in crossing the line from being a highly speculative idea that could well not be around in short order to probably being around and probably having some value in the future nexo is the go-to platform for all things crypto invest in the hottest coins out there and start earning risk-free interest of up to 20 apr paid out daily need cash asap but don't want to sell use your crypto as collateral and receive a credit line at premium rates open your nexo account by march 31st and receive up to a 100 welcome bonus get started today at nexo dot io that's n-e-x-o dot io meet arcules the next generation cold storage wallet arcules secures your crypto using three factor authentication providing a simpler safer and smarter way to store buy swap send and receive crypto arcules is offline cold storage your private keys are encrypted on the oculus keycard and are never online stay safe from hackers with no cords no charging no bluetooth just crypto security made simple buy oculus on amazon today the breakdown is sponsored by ftx us fdx us is the safe regulated way to buy and sell bitcoin and other digital assets with up to 85 lower fees than competitors there are no fixed minimum fees no ach transaction fees and no withdrawal fees one of the largest exchanges in the u.s fdx us is also the only leading exchange that supports both ethereum and solana nfts when you trade nfts on ftx you pay no gas fees download the ftx app today and use referral code breakdown to support the show back to nlw now and to be clear this was not a full-throated embrace of bitcoin like some of the other hedge fundies that had come before him he went on to say that quote i assume new ones will come along and displace this one referring to bitcoin just as a for example however at the end of it he came out and said that he had asked bridgewater to do calculations on what it would mean if many private gold holders something he thought was the best proxy for bitcoin holders shifted to bitcoin to diversify he concluded that is why to me bitcoin looks like a long duration option on a highly unknown future that i could put an amount of money in that i wouldn't mind losing about 80 percent of so that was january 2021 then in may of that year dalia was the keynote for coindesk's consensus and in that interview he famously said that quote i have some bitcoin and that he prefers bitcoin to bonds this got all of the crypto industry flapping with their dalio owns bitcoin pieces this podcast definitely not accepted what was really interesting was more the substantive part of the interviews he said for example that the u.s continued to devalue the dollar quote you need to borrow money you have to go print that you need more money so taxes go up and that produces a dynamic now i can keep going on about what happens in that dynamic it may be capital controls i painfully learned in 1971 that it causes stocks to go up it causes gold bitcoin real estate everything to go up because it's really going down in dollars and that's the part of the cycle we're in however in that same interview he also reiterated his biggest and most oft-repeated concern that if bitcoin and crypto got too big governments would inevitably crack down to be specific he meant that if sovereign bondholders started to abandon sovereign debt on mass in favor of bitcoin or crypto stores of value that would be what triggered governments to crack down that they simply would not abide people leaving their wealth storing asset in the form of sovereign debt for this non-sovereign alternative i think in many ways given his absolute fascination with the changing world order it would be sort of insane for dalio not to be invested remember he's an investor first that means he assigns likely outcomes different probabilities and then makes bets against those probabilities it's hard to look at the last year and not think that those probabilities have risen as it relates to the role that bitcoin and crypto might play in a changing world order and even if you think there was only a small possibility of that as an investor who's invested in the idea of changing monetary systems you'd think there would be an allocation there well now coindesk is reporting that two sources are suggesting that bridgewater associates dalio's hedge fund is preparing to back its first crypto fund bridgewater is the world's largest hedge fund with about 150 billion dollars of assets under management and given that this is definitely a toe dipping move according to these sources they'll be backing a fund run by someone else but there's also speculation that 2022 will see some direct crypto investments in february one of these sources said bridgewater is in a first half plan this year they're planning on having a small slug of their fund deployed directly into digital assets bridgewater for their part has not yet confirmed this now anything that dalio does is going to get a lot of chatter even before this news ryan shot adams last week tweeted i think ray dalio is basically right on the changing world order and the decline of usd he's assuming the next world order is a nation-state likely china but what if it's crypto a new player has entered the game the crypto network antonio the builder summed up the institutions are coming sort of takes shift change coming in my opinion the big money about to create the new crypto market remember end of day money moves markets hunter meyer says bridgewater the world's biggest hedge fund intends to diversify with crypto let that sink in now along with another piece of news this has picked up some narrative trend power cnbc writes goldman sachs galaxy digital announced milestone over-the-counter crypto trade the street says goldman sachs helps bitcoin take a major step the prestigious bank just made a trade that should lead to widespread adoption of bitcoin among big investors basically goldman and galaxy did an over-the-counter bitcoin trade where goldman was actually one of the counterparties said galaxy in a statement this marks the first otc crypto transaction by a major bank in the u.s as goldman sachs continues expanding its cryptocurrency offerings demonstrating the continued maturation and adoption of digital assets by banking institutions the street rights this move is an important step in the development of the crypto market for large investors because otc's means that goldman sachs will act as a principle in the transaction it is therefore a kind of expansion of goldman sachs activities into cryptocurrencies but more importantly it legitimizes the currencies as stable enough to be vouched for by large institutions end quote there is also speculation that part of this is in response to biden's executive order which made it seemingly pretty clear that it is very very unlikely that the u.s moves towards any sort of ban of the style that dalio had previously been nervous about so here's my take on all this this is post-narrative institutionalization and what i mean by that is that this institutional entry into the market tradify coming in is no longer the narrative driving crypto markets it's simply a fact of reality in fact these new entrants like bridgewater seem to be more intentionally trying to downplay the narrative hype around this cycle the goldman news although it still had a press release associated with it is really basic stuff and the net effect is likely just more sense of the normalcy of crypto exposure for traditional market players i think there's a pretty strong argument this is net better for the industry long term you have a lindy led leak of traditional finance funds into crypto as a diversification as a hedge as an expression of market theses and geopolitical theses instead of these big hype cycles it's slow steady moves into the space it doesn't create narrative driving bursts but it potentially has a lot more sustainability now of course that won't stop people from trying to make this a new institutional narrative and that's pretty understandable right now i've seen a number of folks comment on how we're in a narrative exhaustion period and it's not just these macro narratives but themes within the industry as well defy isn't doing much in fact a research report from morgan stanley today had a very skeptical take around it saying that it thought that defy was likely to remain quote fairly small that regulation and over collateralization were the main hurdles and that while it's theoretically all about the efficiency of no middlemen quote rather d5 protocols often seem to us as a way to attract cash flow to enrich the protocol operators defy is hack prone and at risk of financial crime given anonymity is a key feature i'm not making any comment on the veracity or thoughtfulness of those statements i'm just pointing out that's the state of the institutional narrative around defy at least in part then of course there are nfts we've discussed yuga labs and their big moves into the space but it still feels to me like a lot of exhaustion with all the copy pasta and the endlessly same profile pick type collections metaverse and play to earn gaming continue to be big focuses for large parts of the industry but they're faced with more skepticism and perhaps skepticism isn't even the right word but more it's a sense that there needs to be a building phase following this big hype cycle that we've had to me the reality is is that it's hard for any of these micro crypto themes to take hold when there is so much big picture volatility and unassuredness of what happens next on a macro level on a geopolitical level etc indeed the other big picture story from markets yesterday was powell making comments that were even more hawkish than before the point of all of this is that we are right smack in the middle of it the middle of this in-between uncomfortably unclear period of course the best thing to do in times like these is to do everything you can to take a long-term view so the question is where do you think bitcoin crypto etc fit in the changing world order i want to say thanks again to my sponsors nexo.io oculus and ftx and thanks again to you guys for listening until tomorrow be safe and take care of each other peace hey breakdown listeners come join coindesk's consensus 2022 the festival for the decentralized world this june 9th through the 12th in austin texas this is the only festival showcasing and celebrating all sides of blockchain crypto ecosystems web 3 and the metaverse and is designed for crypto newbies investors entrepreneurs developers and creators don't miss speakers like kathy wood sbf cz punk6529 and joe lubin to name just a few use code breakdown to get 15 off your pass at coindesk.com consensus2022 you
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