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비트코인이 7만 달러를 돌파하며 신고가를 경신했고, ETF 자금 유입과 기관(블랙록 등)의 관심 확대로 주목받는다. 빌 애크먼이 비트코인 재검토 발언을 했고, 블랙록 비트코인 ETF는 마이크로스트래티지 보유량을 넘어섰다. 이더리움 현물 ETF 승인 여부는 5월 23일 결정 예정이나 승인 가능성은 낮아지는 추세(폴리마켓 24%). 거래소 거래량과 채굴 수수료 수익이 다년 고점 수준으로 증가했다.
다듬은 글
3 2 1 Welcome Back to the breakdown with me and LW it's a daily podcast on macro Bitcoin and the big picture Powers shifts remaking our world what's going on guys it is Monday March 11th and today we are talking about well Bitcoin at 72,000 before we get into that however if you are enjoying the breakdown please go subscribe to it give it a rating give it a review or if if you want to dive deeper into the conversation come join us on the breakers Discord you can find a link in the show notes or go to bit.
l/ breakdown pod well friends Bitcoin has finally definitively smashed through to a new all-time high none of this flirting right on the edge no it is firmly in new territory as I record this show and boy has it been flirting for the last week after a few brief touches around 69,000 during the week Bitcoin spent most of Sunday trading in a new Range around 69,500 Tech technically the new all-time high had been reached on Friday morning when Bitcoin surged above 70,000 but it was yet again another situation of a collapse just minutes later Bitcoin traded above 69,000 for more than 20 consecutive hours over the weekend establishing the new range with tight consolidation only to have that level be lost temporarily on Sunday night with a little baby plunge down to 67,000 and then of course a sore up to the 72,000 plus that we have been in for most of today tomorrow I will have way more coverage as we process all of this but for now know that we are firmly in new all-time high territory and what we're going to do for the rest of this show is catch up on narrative drivers from over the weekend indeed with Bitcoin back at all-time highs people are coming out of the woodwork to give it a second look one of the highest profile figures reconsidering his view on bitcoin is hedge fund manager Bill Amman on Saturday he tweeted a scenario bitcoin price rise leads to increased Mining and greater energy use driving up the cost of energy causing inflation to rise and the dollar to decline and increased mining driving demand for energy and the cycle continues Bitcoin goes to Infinity Energy prices Skyrocket and the economy collapses maybe I should buy some Bitcoin many prominent bitcoiners chimed in to point out that this isn't how Bitcoin mining Works in fact Bitcoin mining is more likely to drive electricity prices down as it subsidizes excess infrastructure and generation Michael sailor was among those offering to take acman under his wing tweeting you should buy some Bitcoin but not for the reason cited above most Bitcoin miners are driving the cost of electricity down for other consumers not up let me know if you would like to discuss oneon-one for our purposes it doesn't really matter whether Amman has the correct thesis at this point what's interesting is that the new all-time high in the focus around it has given him a context to question previous views throughout the last cycle Amman largely stayed clear of crypto however was never an outspoken skeptic he made a handful of small investments in Crypt related companies things like tax services and analytics firms he had also previously said that crypto was here to stay his words but he's generally been silent about Bitcoin up to this point the question is whether Amman is signaling a change in thinking that is more broad among the Venture and hedge fund Community gorer box writes it's 2024 and celebrity hedge fund managers just starting to ask about Bitcoin after it hit a new all-time high if it's truly the first time you start thinking about Bitcoin fire your entire research and management team do they live under a rock can't miss a$1 trillion plus asset comicazi writes Bill akman finally taking a look at Bitcoin at 70k tells me this cycle will not be short in fact I'd be shocked if the cycle topped at 150x I don't think people like acman Corner markets for a 2X numbers like 300K and 500k are looking reasonable Justin Belcher writes guys like Bill Amman are coming to bitcoin that is inevitable and since we understand their strategy we realize that these comments we perceive are fud are much more than that these money guys are so heavily invested in the status quo that even if they're sold on bitcoin they're not going to reveal it without grooming their sphere of influence that's what we're witnessing now the ETFs changed everything their money is here and more is coming there was a similar reaction to bitcoin's alltime high on this weekend's all-in podcast jamad Palapa explained the common view that Bitcoin is on a path to 100K sooner or later adding we're going to get to a Tipping Point where everybody really talks about this I think that psychologically it's proven a lot of folks wrong these things are becoming part of the financial Fabric and I think that should not be underestimated even all-in host Jason kalakanis who is one of the loudest crypto critics during the bare Market was forced to bring some humility to the show adding Bitcoin is incredibly resilient just on a technical basis you have to be impressed by the fundamental technology here today episode is brought to you by Kraken for far too long the whole financial system has been standing still too slow only on for certain hours overly designed for some types of people but not for others crypto at its best represents progress it asks the question what if it invites people in instead of leaving them out it's on 24/7 365 and moves at the speed of real life not everyone believes it we've got our fair share of detractors but that's the the way it always is when you're building something new Kraken is a crypto company that has been through the highs and lows of the industry facing forwards towards progress throughout and now they're inviting us to see what crypto can be learn more at kraken.com slthe breakdown disclaimer not investment advice Crypt trading involves risk of loss cryptocurrency services are provided to us and US Territory customers by payward Ventures Inc pvi DBA Kraken hello Breakers today's episode is sponsored by Ledger as another cycle ramps up it's another chance to think about your Bitcoin custody best practices and of course to help all the new folks do the same Ledger is the global platform for securing Bitcoin and other crypto Ledger combines both Hardware wallets and The Ledger Live app to offer the best way to buy sell Swap and stake without sacrificing on security or self- custody Ledger features cuttingedge technology in the form of a certified secure chip and a proprietary operating system but also brings ease of use this makes Ledger a safe and secure way to manage your digital assets without all the stress check out the link to the Bitcoin Ledger Nano in the show notes 5% of all sales of the Bitcoin Ledger Nano go to support Bitcoin development thanks once again to Ledger for supporting the breakdown so what is going on well there are a couple different dimensions of this first of all one of the questions that we had especially after 50k Bitcoin came and went without so much as a notice was what it was going to take for people who were not just di in the W bitcoiners to start paying attention again the next obvious candidate was when we got to all-time highs to 69,000 and that does seem to be a psychological level that has brought a lot more attention to the fold there is also this question of did the ETFs really change everything and so far the short answer is yes now that's not to say that there will not be cycles and Corrections and downturns and moments where critics Get Loud again because they get to say that Larry Fink was wrong at least in their estimation but it's hard to overstate how different the change of guard in cheerleaders this cycle around really is Paul tutor Jones and Bill Miller and Stanley drucken Miller last time were a big shift from the previous Bitcoin Advocates who had come before however to the extent that those folks are in the financial mainstream they're widely considered Mavericks that's how they've made their money Larry thinkink of Black Rock Jenny Johnson of Franklin Templeton these are very different types of folks and so the fact that they've gone so Allin on this just sends a wildly different type of signal speaking of let's actually just listen to a clip of Larry Fink talking on the news shows this weekend about Bitcoin there's a lot of opportunity it is a great store and this where you can debate is it a good store do you know how it's made a bunch of computers figure out but there's only but the issue is if if people believe that it can be a an asset that can be cross border and let's be clear if you're in a country where you're fearful of your government and maybe this is one of the reason why China has banned it it mhm if you're in a government where you're if you're in a country where you're fearful of your future fearful of your right government or you're frightened that your government is devaluing its currency by too much deficits like us I'm not going to go there a little elephant to you could say this is a great potential long-term store of value and it as I said it's like digital gold and I and I believe but you still can't buy a slice of pizza with it isn't that kind of odd that we're but you can't buy a a price of pizza with Palladium or or gold no but they you can do stuff with them I can get stuff with I mean people use gold for for stuff right but people you could buy and sell your Bitcoin no different than gold so it is very what is but gold is put in like jewelry jewelry and and and you know iPhones I think there's there's in some Electronics there's gold it's more more silver but you see what I'm say say and it's there are practical uses Bitcoin it's literally a ledger right it is a ledger and but it's a international Ledger it's cross border it it over it's it's bigger than any government expanding out this black rock conversation just a little bit last week the Bitcoin ETFs achieved a string of Milestones symbolizing this Changing of the Guard that we've been talking about black rocks ETF now hold more Bitcoin than micro strategy as of Friday ibit has almost 196,000 Bitcoin compared to micro strategies 193,000 Black Rock has now captured 10 billion worth of inflows making their Bitcoin ETF the fastest fund to reach this Milestone they achieved it in under two months as compared to the previous record high which was held by invesco's QQQ NASDAQ ETF which took more than a year between them the nine new Bitcoin ETFs are now larger than gbtc grayscale still holds around 400,000 meaning that the combined Holdings of all us spot Bitcoin ETFs is around 4% of total Supply on Friday the ETF passed 100 billion in cumulative trading volume since they were launched in short the ETFs now represent a meaningful fraction of global spot Bitcoin trading and they don't look like they're slowing down at all now I had prepared that little segment on ibit jumping out above micro strategy only to have this morning sailor tweet micro strategy has acquired an additional 12,000 Bitcoin for 821.077 per Bitcoin add to all of this the fact that while their Pure Play Bitcoin ETF is a runaway success black rock appears to only just be getting started according to a new filing they're seeking the option to add their Bitcoin ETF into their Global allocation fund the fund was launched in 1989 and seeks to represent a diversified allocation to Global investable assets the actively managed fund is modeled on a 6040 split between stocks and bonds and is intended to give proportionate exposure to Major economies worldwide it currently has 18 billion in assets under management earlier this month Black Rock applied to add Bitcoin to their strategic income opportunities fund and while neither of the changes have yet been approved the implication is clear Black Rock views Bitcoin not as a novelty but as a genuine asset class that should be included when considering Global exposure now staying on the ETF train for a moment one of the big questions one of the big debates going on right now is whether an eth ETF is next to be approved looking out across potential catalysts we've got the having now less than 6 weeks away and then a big decision coming up for the SEC around whether or not to approve spot ethereum ETFs opinions have varied on whether the SEC will be forced into approval in line with Bitcoin products or stubbornly deny no doubt pushing the issue into the courtroom once again for those reading te leaves what we haven't seen so far that we did see shortly before the Bitcoin ETFs were approved was a flurry of meetings and comments there have been however some last week Grace scale and coinbase met with SEC staff to discuss ethereum ETFs coinbase's meeting was of particular relevance as the exchange had provided correlation data between spot and Futures Market their study found a tight correlation implying that the spot ethereum ETFs should be approved for the same reason as the Bitcoin products in terms of timeline we're looking at May 23rd as the final decision on vanx application with numerous others due the following week Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric buunis thinks the is cutting it very close if they do intend to approve tweeting normally I'd say this was a good sign but as far as I know the staff has not given any comments yet to the issuers which is not a good sign as we're past the point when they gave comments on bitcoin ETFs Elanor ter of Fox Business spoke with her sources and tweeted optimism about the SEC approving the eth spot ETFs by May 23rd is waning based on my conversations with people familiar meetings in recent weeks have been very much one-sided with issuers and custodians trying to Rally SEC staff to get the process rolling but staff not really engaging in meaningful ways like they did with the Bitcoin spot ETF applications why I'm told that gendler believes he already plated the industry with the approval of the spot Bitcoin ETFs also influential anti-crypto politicians like Senator Warren are already angry at the SEC for improving the Bitcoin ETFs in the first place and are rallying against the same thing happening for eth One Source tells me staff has been very hard to gauge on this and we're not sure if anyone really knows what's going on in their heads but they're going to have to start working soon if it's going to have a shot defi Square noted that prediction markets are now assigning the chance of an ethereum spot ETF approval at the May deadline to be just 24% which is the poly Market odds and down more than 40% from the beginning of March mxie summed up my feelings when they wrote The Amazing part here is that legal analysis plays close to zero role in any of these decisions 100% Party politics I expect a denial and I am bullish on the second order consequences of that decision still it's hard to be too concerned about anything right now alongside a new all-time high in price Bitcoin transactions have also spiked hitting an 18-month High more than 70 billion worth of bitcoin was transacted on chain last week which is the highest volume we've seen since September 2022 this spike in volume has also led to a dramatic rise in fee Revenue miners cashed in more than 65 million per day last week just shy of all-time highs from May 2021 all time highs in price and near highs in fee Revenue means that Bitcoin miners should skate through the having with little stress this setup validates the planning from large miners who have been doubling down on hash rate over the past 6 months according to Bloomberg reporting filings from publicly listed miners showed 1 billion has been spent on new equipment since February of last year these firms are also hitting new records for energy usage up by 33% annually crypto exchanges are also turning through volume at multi-year highs last week crypto exchanges hit 100 billion in aggregate daily volume for the first time since November 2021 compare that at the beginning of February when only 24 billion in Daily volume was flowing through exchanges monthly volume has been slowly ticking up since October but so far March looks on track to challenge records binance has also roared back to life as Traders head out on the risk curve with the exchange back up to 43% market share up bit in okx round out the top three exchanges in terms of volume this month suggesting massive demand from Asia like I said we will be back tomorrow with more commentary discussion exploration of Bitcoin above 70,000 but for now that is going to do it for this episode I want to say one more big thanks to my sponsors for today's show go to kraken.com thebreakdown and see what crypto can be and of course a big thank you to Ledger check out The Ledger Bitcoin Nano where 5% of sales will go to bitcoin development until next time be safe and take care of each other peace
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