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Tesla earnings are out now this was a Miss on the top and bottom lines but the stock is actually up over 6% as I'm making this video and there is a clear reason why and I'll share it with you later I'm going to go through the numbers I'm going to give you some thoughts and Analysis now what's funny about this is earlier I had CNBC on I was making lunch and I normally don't watch CNBC much at all there was a segment where they were talking about how Tesla is a car company and then 2 minutes later they said all eyes on Tesla earnings tonight because it's a big part of the tech SE and it can move tech stocks in the whole market so which is it guys is it a car company is it a tech company more importantly is Tesla stock a buy now I'm here to share the facts and some thoughts and where the stock might go next so EPS 45 cents adjusted versus 51 cents expected Revenue 21.3 billion versus 22.1 15 billion expected and you can see the stock is actually up 7.66 right now now part of that year to date it was down 41.7 n% going into earnings over the past year down about 11% so if you look at this 8% after hours it's down 3% over the past year now over the past 5 years if you've been invested in Tesla you've made 822 per.
so you know the story Tesla's plummeted this year 42% on concerns about week deliveries competition in China and the company's ongoing price Cuts Tesla also recently cut 10% of its Workforce FSD has been a big topic as well recently cut the price on FSD musk is now saying there'll be an unveiling of the Tesla robot taxi on August 8th of 2024 and the earnings call is going to happen here soon and the the stock could move either direction depending on what's set on that call one important thing that we're going to be listening for is about the cheaper car that $25,000 car there's been rumors that the car is no longer part of Tesla's long-term plans now mus denied that on Twitter and said that it's still a go but you've just had a perfect storm of negative sentiment and headlines that has continued to put pressure on this stock we've covered this stock over the past few weeks and we've talked about some of these challenges so the red conflict the arson attack at gigafactory Berlin the gradual ramp up of the updated model 3 in Fremont cyber truck issues you've also had cyber trucks that have been recalled Global EV sales continue to be under pressure as many car makers prioritize hybrids over EVS now what's interesting about that is General Motors reported earnings this morning and this isn't anything too exciting you know 7.5% growth but it did beat on the top and bottom lines in fact beat by 51 cents on EPs and revenue beat by 1.22 billion and over all that earnings call was pretty positive the stock was up 4.37% today while many are pulling back on their Investments we at Tesla are investing in future growth including our AI infrastructure now if this is just a car company why is it investing in AI infrastructure BR production capacity our supercharger in service networks and new product infrastructure now I heard somebody say earlier this morning as well that Tesla has no mo let's just pretend for a second that you don't think Tesla has a moat with cars which would be false really if you look at the data but let's is per 10 you can say well what about their energy storage well there's no moat what about the solar well there's no moat what about the supercharging network there's no mo well wait a minute why is every other car manufacturer signing up for Tesla superchargers if there's no mo what's going on here of course you can make the argument superchargers you know that's not a big part of the business it's not not going to make them a ton of money cars are still the focus it's a car company it's certainly a diversified car company and has technology at its core someone also said well everybody's got self-driving this is not something new and everybody else is going to have it it's a commodity I don't think people who say that totally can comprehend just how much time how much money and effort Tesla has spent on building this out look at this Tesla FSD Fleet passes one billion mile Milestone billions and billions and billions and billions and billions and billions this is straight from Tesla on x 1 billion FSD miles driven look at that ramp up this goes all the way back to 2020 just in four years look at that pop this looks like an Nvidia stock chart or maybe even an Nvidia investor deck one of those slides where they show a,x Computing opportunity now to get to a billion miles that's going to take some time and effort and so you've got Mercedes out there you got BMW I of course there's going to be competition but I think you can make an argument here that Tesla's probably going to end up using this as a software as of service software subscription type model especially for for some of those lagging companies when you think of like Ford and GM they're so far behind we recently undertook a cost cutting exercise to increase operational efficiency we also remain committed to companywide cost reduction including reducing cost of goods sold per vehicle ultimately we are focused on profitable growth including leveraging existing factories and production lines to introduce new and more affordable products the future is not only electric but also autonomous We Believe scaled autonomy is only positive with data from millions of vehicles an immense AI training cluster well they have this we have and continue to expand both to make FSD supervised more accessible we reduce the price of the subscription to $99 a month and the purchase price to $8,000 if you're buying it at one time and this is in the United States now one thing to note here this is big operating cash flow .2 billion in q1 free cash flow -2.5 billion this is for AI infrastructure capex that's a billion dollars of that $2.2 billion decrease in our cash and cash equ equivalence but Tesla still has 26.9 billion in cash in equivalence increased AI training compute by more than 130% in q1 I guess it's just a car company record energy storage deployment over 1,000 cyber trucks in a single week in April so total Automotive revenues right here you can see year-over year that's down 133% you got to call spade a spade energy generation and storage Revenue it's up 7% year-over Year services and other Revenue 25% so model 3 y production you got -2% year-over a year you can see some of these deliveries -10% you got - 63% you know some some pretty bad numbers in here pretty mixed but I think it's probably what we expected here's another snapshot of this just to kind of see it so missed by 5 cents on EPs and then Revenue that's negative 8.5% year-over-year missed by just under a billion dollars we're going to look at a chart here in a second I'll tell you where I think this stock could be headed next you can see it closed down at $144 68 cents today I think it's important to remember too obviously this stock has come a long ways in a short amount of time a lot of people invest towards the top they buy off of that fomo but remember investors who have been in this company for a long time have made a lot of money this is showing you vehicle production going back to 2017 only 10,300 Vehicles last year in 2023 1.8 million now in 2023 we were thinking you know 24 could be a big year over 2 million we might not get that this year depending on how things play out the rest of the year but it is important just to remember how much Tesla has grown over the past several years and obviously with that you have automotive sales revenue nice Trend along with it energy storage deployed too also look at the difference here from 2019 to 2023 big numbers you know vehicle deliveries you can look at services and other Revenue all these things are ramping up and of course we talked about the FSD miles driven over a billion at this point going back just to 2022 Q4 90 million what do you think is going to happen as more and more people sign up for FSD and it's cheaper and cheaper I've shown you guys this site a few times and if you haven't checked it out yet I encourage you to do so if you're a visual learner this is a great tool just to give you an idea of progression and things like that with businesses when you're investing for me I think a tool like this is very helpful for retail investors to give us an edge now I've got a coupon code you can use to get 10% off so it's only $9 a month to give this a try this is called Mega charts there's a link that's pinned in the comments use coupon code fired up wealth so Tesla quarterly revenues this is by segment q12 9 to q1 2024 this recent quarter this is a good infographic as well because it shows you that we were trending upwards and now we've got a little bump on the road now is this a growing pain or is it part of a larger Trend in the shareholder deck it talks about volume growth rate maybe notably lower than the growth rate achieved in 2023 as the company looks to launch its next Generation vehicle and other products this is telling you that Tesla is telling us that they're still planning on doing a Next Generation vehicle it doesn't give us the exact details of that of course but down here it does go into more detail and it says accelerating the launch of new vehicles including more affordable models that will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines now this is important because if you remember the Cyber truck that was not the case and it was very hard to manufacture still is everything for the Cyber Tru had to be customized and it was very expensive something that must said was probably not the best idea in hindsight Tesla's aiming to fully utilize its current production capacity and achieve more than 50% growth over 2023 production and that's before investing in new manufacturing lines so right now it's it's trying to be shareholder friendly it's trying to focus on that growth before it spends more money this is also a very powerful visual CU it's showing you net income by quarter 2023 Q4 7.9 billion this was really solid now we've got 1.1 billion this is going all the way back to 2021 Q2 so sales growth across EVS is slowing and Tesla and key Rivals have been slashing EV prices Tesla's gross profits plummeted 18% the first quarter of course partly because of those price Cuts also two key Executives have resigned this is a big deal Capital expenditures Rose to 2.77 billion up 34% from a year earlier but the stock at this point is still holding up it's up 7% it's $153 73 cents right now after hours I'll keep going through that chart here in a second but I want to make sure I cover margins because this is a really big deal you know one argument for the longest time is you know you look at Tesla it has the same margins as something like a Ferrari margins have come down you look at the Gap this is the total Gap gross profit margin you can see q1 2023 19.3% this most recent quarter 17.4% so down almost 200 basis points again and this has come down about 2% in that one-year period you look at eida margin same kind of deal 18.3% to 15.9% but with all this negative information why is the stock still up after hours now what's interesting about this guys must told us they were going to still do the less expensive model and that really is the primary reason reason why the stock is up Tesla to launch new models ahead of planned timeline shares jump so Tesla just told us it's going to introduce new models before the second half of next year and at one point shares were up 9% and after hours so more affordable models but Tesla didn't offer a ton of details on the new products but said they would arrive before the second half of 2025 Reuters exclusively reported on April 5th that Tesla had scrapped the plans for this car which investors expect to cost around $225,000 and really be the next growth driver for Tesla as a mass Market automaker now you can see this S3 is 13626 these are Fibonacci pivot Points the stock got really close $138 180 it got really close you can see right here that was a 52e low it did break the April 2023 low of 15237 and if you go back to January here 2023 Tesla almost broke $100 a share it was $181 it ripped from $101.8 all the way up here to $299 almost $300 a share and then of course you know what happened then fell off a cliff so we've been telling you on the channel that we like this stock longterm as a five-year investment the stock is definitely not out of the woods yet you can saw some of those negative numbers that I just showed you here under $150 DCA and depending on what earnings did tonight you know you could have seen the stock go lower you know looking at the Fibonacci retracement I mean obviously 181 would have been the next area down here if it was going to test those lows from 2023 but your first line of support here is that 100 $36 which it did hold up I think around $120 was a possibility it still could happen later but really this is the range in here I think if you're dollar cost averaging in here that you'll probably do well longer term now if you believe that this is a car company and not a tech company well it's still expensive and you're not going to touch it $144 a share but as of right now the Stock's up over 105% at $160 a share after hours I think it will be interesting to see what happens here as earnings continue the call is still going on and some of this could be short sellers that are just covering their shorts it's hard hard to say exactly what's going to happen in the short term with Tesla but longterm I am bullish on this stock and I'll continue to dollar cost average in both portfolios if this was
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