저자: Mr.FIREDUpWealth · 외국인
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3월 CPI가 예상보다 높게 나오고 기대인플레이션도 3% 부근에서 고착되어 연준의 인하 횟수가 줄어들 것으로 봄(6회→3회). 시장은 강세 모멘텀이며 QQQ는 428 지지·465 상단 시나리오. 엔비디아는 1000~1250 시나리오, AMD는 92 지지·250 이상 가능성 언급. 테슬라는 금리 민감도 때문에 단기 약세 압력, 장기 강세 견해. 팔란티어 장기 강세, 소파이 장기 매수 관점이나 단기 바닥 필요.
다듬은 글
you want to know what's going on with the stock market should I buy stocks now or wait what's the latest CPI data say is inflation going higher is the Fed cutting interest rates we'll talk about that and I'll also share five stock charts including Nvidia and Tesla and tell you where I think the stocks are headed next so the theme song of 2024 so far rage against machine Bulls on Parade CPI headline consumer Prices rose 4% in February and 3.2% from a year ago and you can see the month-over-month per change of course it's a lot better than 2022 but this is a little higher than expected today and this is a good visual here just showing you how high inflation really got up to 9% in June of 2022 and it has come down quite a bit but the FED wants to be at what 2% but I think there's a bigger picture and that was picked up yesterday by the New York fed inflationary expectation survey and that is inflationary expectations are stuck just under 3% and that's I think is our reality for a while that those inflation expect that's a leading indicator it is is ask people what do you expect for the next year what do you expect for next 3 years and what do you expect for next 5 years and the next year is 3% and then when you go to 3 to 5 years is 2.7 to 2.9% now this is something that we discussed a lot last year in fired up wealth does the FED have realistic expectations to get down to 2% quickly how long is it actually going to take so still far away from what people tend to think of the fed's inflation Target even though that inflation Target is applicable to another measure yeah you know unlike the market that's been on a roller coaster we were pricing in as many as seven cut Cuts then two cuts now we're at four Cuts we're pricing it at one time March now we at June the FED has held a steady course three Cuts most likely starting in June and that was reaffirmed by chair pal and I think Becky that is the white Outlook that is what I think should happen given the economy that we are in today since last fall I've been telling the community we're not going to have six rate Cuts in 2024 and now it's looking like three yet the market doesn't seem to care the market is looking forward and like I said Bulls on Parade even if that inflation number comes in hotter than anticipated you don't think that'll push things off because Jamie Diamond speaking yesterday uh said he thinks maybe the FED shouldn't cut in June maybe wait and see how the numbers go and give themselves a little room he he he actually suggested that the Freds credibility is at risk if they cut too soon yeah or they can be stayed too tight for too long and then the credibility will be at risk there all this has a critical issue what do you think is the right underlying inflation rate or what economists called the neutral interest rates what do you think is the equilibrium rate if you think the equilibrium rate is 2% that's what the FED should be targeting in terms of inflation then they should hold off if like me you believe that we are living in a world where Supply is is insufficiently flexible and that you should aim higher than 2% tolerate more than 2% for a while to and a half to three then we are restrictive and they should cut so all these discussions lead back to something that people don't like talking about which is what is the right inflation Target for the world we live in today so that should help explain why the market is green when the news really wasn't all that great now one thing I want to point out here I think it's just a good visual this is going all the way back 1983 and this is the median Consumer Price Index obviously it went Bonkers here in 2022 and it dropped off nicely down to around 2.5 in July of 2023 but look at how this is spiked back up and of course the data is lagging but January 2024 here is a 6.54 so what do you think should the target be 2 and 1 half to 3% or should it be 2% and should the FED be cutting rates drop me a comment below let me know right now the market of course is bullish and the momentum shows quite a bit more upside now of course that could break down any time and the macro is going to be important obviously the fundamentals of each company are also very important in earnings we're nearing the end of earning season and we're in historically weak period in the market with that said when you look at election years they generally are going to end the year higher than they started so looking at the NASDAQ 100 this is the QQQ ETF anything in Orange is a previous chart day we do that every single Wednesday in patreon Discord but you can see in yellow we have $428 support on the QQQ and the upside is $465 of course it could break down any time and you can see the 200 day moving average is way down here around $385 and we drew this circle up some time ago and said here's the trend upwards and we might have some consolidation along the way but the trend at this point is up let's take a quick look at nvidia's chart see where the stock might go now this was a pound the table buy both on YouTube and in Discord at $150 or less we've been covering this stock since 2019 it's been a top pick for us and right now if you look at this previously we said that it was probably going to go up to the R3 around $950 and it's not a coincidence that Nvidia found resistance and Consolidated once it got it slightly above that R3 so it got to $974 and then it rolled over and it went back down below the R2 assuming the market stays bullish watch for it to get back to a th000 and probably break the th000 maybe get some resistance again then you're looking at 1100 and 1250 now this video is showing you technical analysis obviously the fundamentals are 99% of the puzzle and a charge that's going to give you possibilities it's not a Magic Bullet it's not a crystal ball into the future generally here at fired up wealth we're all about long-term investing buying stocks at attractive prices dollar cost averaging and holding for several years not buy and hold forever but buy hold and monitor if the story changes you don't have to hold it forever you sell in 2022 we were looking at the fundamentals of companies and saying hey these are attractive and the risk reward is attractive here even if they can go lower AMD it was overbought the RSI got a little hot needed to cool off same kind of deal went above the R3 Now Stocks are often going to go higher than you think they will on the upside and they do the same thing on the downside so in 2022 in my opinion a lot of stocks were overdone and there were great values there were great buys now you're looking to buy stocks you're probably chasing all-time highs and a lot of these names are close to it this was a pound the table bu $65 or less both Again YouTube and in Discord but with that said amd's got $92 support and it could go to $250 plus but be careful chasing with all the stocks that we covered today now of course there are two ways to do it if you're investing longterm you dollar cost average into stocks and you can do it in two ways you can buy levels from technical analysis and try to back into a position based off of blueprint or you just periodically buy every single paycheck you just nibble your favorite names and ETFs every time you get paid and you're buying stocks when they're High when they're low you're consistently buying you're thinking about a five and 10e plan if you're trading well it's a different story and you're going to trade off momentum now out of the five stocks we covered today I own all of them and I have great cost bases in all these stocks except for really one and that's the stock that I'm buying at these levels and lower can you guess which stock it is that would be Tesla and we said recently that it bounced off $175 it probably get to $200 plus and maybe find resistance again and roll over and it did exactly that this actually has resistance at 193 so it's trading below that resistance the other stocks all have support and they're higher so you should expect expect more pressure unless it breaks $193 again and the range on this is really between $137 all the way up to $214 I personally like the 165 to 175 range for dollar cost averaging but keep in mind if we go into recession or something really ugly happens with the market Tesla could easily be a $100 stock NOW longterm I'm bullish and I think this stock will be a long-term winner but this is not the environment for it and it's much more interest rate sensitive than some of these other names plus like we talked about in the last video the AI Revolution hurts it in a way because even though this is an AI company in many people's eyes it doesn't have a way to monetize that currently and so like we talked about last time is Tesla a car company or is it a technology company drop me a comment below let me know what you think paler is another stock we've been bullish on this stock since 6 months before it came public it came public on a direct listing we were buyers at $9 and then recently here in 23 $6 in that range really between $6 and $9 is where most of the community were buying the stock and this does have $22.70 support so watch for $30 in fact this R3 up here is around $31.7 the downside risk you could see something like $16 to $18 and you can see a lot of these stocks they're above their moving averages and they're running hot you know looking at a trend line This is down here at $10 the 200 day moving average is closer to $17.50 so on a big Market selloff could you see it come down in these levels absolutely now the flip side to that this is a momentum name a lot of retail investors are very excited about the the long-term prospects of this company of this stock and so it certainly has upside and again I think you could see between $30 and $35 is it expensive at $25 a share the answer is absolutely in fact out of all the cloud SAS name softwares of service this is now the most expensive stock and really the first time ever snowflake was on top of that chart for as long as I can remember now it's paler and I know a lot of people want to compare paler and Snowflake and it's kind of this rivalry almost like the uh Vikings and Packers or something like that right or maybe the Eagles and the Giants or the Cowboys and the Eagles or whatever you want to compare it to I like both companies and I like them for different reasons and they're both great AI plays long term and I think you can own both palen here and snowflake in a portfolio I personally like to buy stocks at attractive prices though and not chase them when they're really expensive so I'm long pal here I'm bullish but I own the stock much lower I've got one more chart to cover before I do that if you're maybe new to investing or or you're looking for a way to dollar cost average into an ETF that's trying to capture these secular growth trends that owns companies like Nvidia and AMD and Tesla and crowd strike and more one ETF you can check out the ticker is sprx that's the spear invest ETF the alpha ETF that performed over 70% in 2023 and it's got a lot of fired up wealth favorites in that ETF we covered five charts today three are bullish and two are bearish and this is going to be bearish along with Tesla this has $8 .77 resistance this is Sofi this was a pound to table buy and fired up wealth $5 or less or One Price to Book or less and I do like this one longterm as well one of the Dynamics here is the market is trying to label this more as a bank and Retail is labeling it more as a fintech drop me a comment below which is it are you buying Sofi and should it be valued higher as a fintech company it could bottom any time but really needs to get to that $9 level for upside if this video is helpful to you I'm bringing new videos every sing single week take care
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