저자: Mr.FIREDUpWealth · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라는 기술/AI 기업으로 보고 장기 관점에서 자율주행·옵티머스에 가치의 대부분이 있다고 주장하며 $175 이하 분할매수. 클라비오(CLVT)는 IPO 후 저점권이라 $25 이하 DCA. 스펙 종목 small-cap 반도체(Navatos류)는 장기 보유 전제로 $5.50 이하 매집. Paycom은 $175 이하 DCA, Perion은 $23 이하 DCA. 개별 종목 예측은 근거가 가격 지지선·이동평균 중심이며 대부분 장기 관점.
다듬은 글
you want to know what are the best stocks to buy now you asked me to make this video and I've been on the sidelines for a little while but I've been buying stocks and I want to share them with you is Tesla a car company or a technology company what was so interesting about the report was that they really were trying to define the company as an EV automobile maker is that the way you think about this company I think about it as a technology company that's providing services to other AO their own company and to others they can't possibly be matched by anyone else so if Tesla can't be matched by anyone else and it's a technology company it should make things pretty simple in terms of valuation right well not so fast and this is the problem and even the people watching this video you're either going to classify this as a car company or a technology company the problem is actually the AI Revolution itself now that sounds counterintuitive right well Tesla has no way currently to monetize artificial intelligence but will it in the future and more importantly if you're watching watching this are you investing for the short term or the long term yeah I mean if you listen to the earnings call he pretty much spelled it out right you had you have to look at this as a as a multi-decade thesis right this is a long-term play read the Walter isacson book you'll really get a sense of how ELO thinks and what this future looks like right so the botel 3 bottle y these are saturated Brands largely there's still going to be some growth I think consensus has 14% growth in 2024 uh that's still significantly off the 40% growth that they did in 23 but when you have the the the affordable car coming out in 2026 that's going to cost only $20,000 makes you think that's coming out in 2026 I mean that is the plan right the start of production no plan has ever worked on time we all know this I've been in test for 10 years no plan has ever been on time so let's say it's not 2026 let's say it's 2027 right let's look at the stock from a tectonic period from 2040 and then discount the cash flows back my price Target actually has 80 % of the value in autonomy right my car business is only something like you know alive in 2040 you know I'm 53 I'm the same age as Elon like when you talk multi- decades you know we got to be around for this you know I think everybody would agree that there is a story there for autonomy for artificial intelligence for Optimus but in the short term there are a lot of headwinds and not everybody is investing for the long term they have data technology they make car is cheaper than was when Ford makes one of these cars an electric car every car they make they lose $36,000 on $336,000 per car our company now makes about $8 or $9,000 in profit a car they were making $115,000 in profit a car but if they build a plant that cost $7 billion for a million cars that plan was making $15 billion a year on a $7 billion investment 15 billion on a 7 million investment an ordinary Industrial company would make 15% on Capital 20% the most this guy's making his Capital twice a year now now he's making it once a year he's making $8 billion in a $7 billion plan so he's the lowest cost person everything about the business is tiing to drive prices lower so driving prices lower but that's part of the problem right margins have compressed that used to be what gave Tesla The Edge that was the differentiator and those margins are not what they used to be in the 1900s early 1900s the automobile companies were tremendous innovators no longer is the case in the 1950s they decided they were going to go for profitability and they outsourced all of their supply chain to their detriment and all these companies went bankrupt hundreds of them went bankrupt now a $225,000 car if and when it happens there's no question even if you're a bear that will move the needle for Tesla the stock will rip much higher but that's not anytime soon but he's going to open Plants all around the world uh for lowcost cars and wait till you see what's going to happen when all of a sudden they start selling cars instead of for 40 ,000 a piece for $25,000 a piece which is going to happen in that's a year year and a half uh from their new model the new model they think is going to do 5 million cors a year 5 million cors a year for the model 2 that's coming here's the bottom line on Tesla we can talk about China Demand Being down and I could explain to you that the Chinese New Year fell in a different time and there are explanations there for me personally I look at this as a long-term investment I'm thinking 2030 and Beyond and when I look at a stock I'm trying to buy in hold and I'm trying to buy reasonable levels in dollar cost average so for me I added some today $175 or less DCA all right time for a mystery chart can you tell me what this stock is so this stock went public September 22nd 2023 at $33.39 a share and it's trading today it closed at exactly $25 back in November of 2023 the stock got to $25.3 so we're at the lowest it's been since it went public and that lockup period just expired have you guessed the stock yet so clavo can be broken down into two layers and you can see on your screen so there's going to be a data layer and an application layer so this is softwares of service SAS and it's marketing automation to explain this in simple terms think of the data layer as all the information and that includes the AI capabilities the application layer is going to be used to take that data and make actionable results from it so this platform is really about taking customer data and making use of it for marketing purposes so you can see at the top email SMS and mobile push so you're talking about emails and texts cio's AI tools are going to make it simpler for businesses to connect to their customers so smarter insights smarter decisions and better results and the company slide deck really drives home AI you of course have to be a little bit careful with that because every company is talking about AI now but this company clavio does have ai at its core here's that flywheel that we love to show in fired up wealth and you can take a look this is a rapid fire video so I'm going to get right into some financials and talk about the price Target but before we get into that I want to share the ownership because I think this is really important and somebody was asking me earlier today how come we don't see a ton of volume right now with this lockup now one thing to note is Shopify is going to be 11.2% ownership Shopify really is going to be critical for the success of this business in fact that's probably the primary risk is there's just a lot of exposure to Shopify but the CEO got about 38% and the cfo's got 13.9% and then you're talking really about institutional investors if you look at other investors insiders and employees only 5.4% this IPO was unique because it came out when the market really wasn't all that hot for IPOs and it was a rare SAS opportunity with profitability metrics now with SAS software as a service recurring Revenue we like to look at EV NCM revenue and compare that to its peers currently at 8.3x and and then that LTM rule of 40 is 55% so these are solid numbers now I did some analysis today and I compared it to its PE I think that the fair valuation if you're trying to put an evtm revenue is between 10 and 12 so this has somewhere between 20 and 50% upside in my opinion over the next 12 months now I'm not a financial adviser and I could be wrong and I'm investing this long term so I'm thinking several years so I'm buying $25 or less DCA this next stock pick is what we call a Spec stock or speculative stock these are companies that are burning cash they're not profitable but you're looking at the qualitative and the quantitative analysis and that qualitative analysis has a strong story for future growth now because these are speculative Investments they're what we like to say 10x or zero literally these could go out of business or you could make 1,000% return so we generally will teach to have 10% or less in a blueprint when you build a portfolio and then have several stocks to kind of hedge that risk now if you're in our Discord Community you know about this one this is a small cap Semiconductor Company and you know they're talking here about a one trillion doll opportunity and this is a pretty small cap as of right now the market cap is $949 million so less than a billion dollar this is another one of those long-term stories read that right there 24e opportunity I'm not suggesting you have to hold it 24 years necessarily but understand if you're buying this stock it's going to be one that's going to take time you're probably going want to hold something like this five or more years if you look at the pie chart you can see electric vehicles is in the blue and that's going to be the major opportunity but there are other exciting areas so when you think of secular growth Trends and trying to capitalize on those make money in your portfolio make money in the stock market off of those secular Trends those Mega Trends semiconductors the new oil are an excellent pick and shovel play and since I've owned the the larger cap semiconductor companies that are more popular that have ripped like the amds the nvidias the broadcom you get the idea I look at these small cap semiconductor stocks as opportunities but only if you have that long-term mindset navatos recently reported earnings you can see non-gaap EPS negative -4 cents but it did beat by 1 cent Revenue 26.6 million this is a small company 111% year-by-year growth and it did beat by 67 million that forward Revenue growth about 75% so slowing down a little bit if you look at this pie chart I think there's opportunity for all these areas to grow but I'm especially excited about the EV electric vehicle space and data center EV to sales 10.24 price to sales 8.46 so it's not Dirt Cheap by any means and here are the profitability metrics you can see that the company has a long ways to go looking at a chart really quick this is a previous chart day in Orange but if you look at this blue trend line I generally like to buy stocks when they're at the trend line especially when they're under these moving averages so I do think the stock could go lower you could see it was 476 just late 2023 and this is when I started buying the stock and I've been adding recently here we circled this yellow circle before it happened we said it was going to come maybe down back in these ranges around this trend line so I like this stock $5.50 or lower DCA but my preference is below $5 in the fours this next stock will probably ruffle some feathers it's kind of one of those LoveHate stocks this is a unique opportunity because it has recurring Revenue with a dividend and it's profitable any guesses look at this look at this this is from a short report and it was when the market was much higher pay attention to the very bottom paycom at the time of this short report that EV eitaa was 51.3 X now if you shorted the stock you made a lot of money can you guess what that multiple is today on the 12- months trailing 19.33% X and the forward is 13.41% expands automated payroll with Betty into the United Kingdom now in 2023 paycom expanded into Canada and Mexico and on the earnings call paccom talked about how they delivered a lot of innovation on the international front in 2023 launched our Global HCM product and now companies of all sizes now remember this is SNB Focus trying to get more into larger accounts Enterprise companies of all sizes use this product across 180 countries and in 15 languages now now paycom has been pretty aggressive in the past saying things like they've only penetrated 5% of their total dressable Market in the US now of course expanding globally is going to expand the Tam according to management by 50% now these are 12-month price targets and you never buy off anals price targets but to give you a pulse lowest price Target 165 highest 250 and the average is 2190 now that might not look exciting cuz it's only about a 12% upside and we're in a bull market but if you're looking for a dgif type play a total growth play that has a dividend and you're looking for something that's maybe not crazy expensive in this market it could be an opportunity to accumulate shares if you're a long-term investor looking at a chart quick when this gap down happened we drew this up and said you'd probably see it retest so it got down here to $146 and then it bounced off that and I told the gang in Discord be careful it's probably going to give some of that back I circled this yellow circle and said proba probably you'll see it in this area so I've been adding to this recently $175 or less DCA and one thing to note right out of the gates with this company is it's based in Israel now I don't think that's a bad thing but the stock market for whatever reason gives lower premiums to companies that are based in Israel it's just a fact now a lot of you probably own the trade desk ticker TTD that's going to be focused on the secular growth trend of digital advertising now trade desk is going to be best of breed and it's my favorite pick in this space in fact we've covered it on this channel since 2019 so if you're an individual investor trying to get an edge on the market and videos like this are but if you're looking for an alternative that's less expensive this could be something to explore connected TV or CTV has a 15% compound annual growth rate you can see on your screen expected to grow through the next several years retail media ad spending 24% compound annual growth rate perion also has APS integration so Amazon publisher Services integration and you'll notice this is not a hyper Growth Company by any means but it's profitable and if you look at the valuation it seems very attractive so you're talking about some pretty solid growth here about 15% Ford Revenue growth the valuation where it seems too good to be true I mean you look at the Gap TTM 9.53 Ford 8.74 and the peg Gap is7 and on a Ford basis only .31 what am I missing now the gross profit margins aren't as high as I would like at 36.5% but overall in Seeking Alpha it gets an A minus for profitability and it's making $266,000 net income per employee now when you're doing your research and picking stocks you care about what happens next and past performance doesn't guarantee future results but one thing to note here this stock has been on the market public since February of 2006 and it's trading 8.4% lower today than it was almost 20 years ago so can it be a turnaround story is the question let me show you a chart real quick and the price Target so this stock was almost $43 back in April of 2023 you can see it's falling off a cliff and it has this huge gap down so similar to other charts we looked at today we circled this a couple weeks back and said here's where it could drift to and that Circle really is 20 to $22 in that range and it certainly could go lower the S3 is around $17 in change so even though the metrics are there in terms of the financials that quantitative analysis when doing your qualitative analysis it has a great story but if you look at the sum of all parts it makes it feel a little bit risky like there's something missed therefore I consider this a Spec stock I wouldn't go too heavy on it I think it could be a turnaround play there's lots of total addressable Market to capitalize on and I've been nibbling this stock $23 or less DCA now if you're looking for a way to place some of these secular growth Trends or say you're a new investor and you're not exactly sure which stocks you want to buy check out this video I did last last week top seven growth ETFs to buy one of the ETFs on the list seriously if we were creating a fired up wealth portfolio ETF it'd be very similar to this one the ticker is sprx if you want to learn more about that click the card above I'm also watching two other stocks really closely the first one is rocket lab especially if it gets back in the threes I already owned some shares I'd like to add more and if you want to learn more about rocket lab click the card above this video goes into much more detail about the company and the last one I'm watching closely really I'm researching it more with the community in Discord and if you want that information the best way is going to be to join our Discord Community because there's a ton of DD there's information in there that I can't explain in a quick video on YouTube the question with it is it a value play or a value trap with that 6% dividend yield and the ticker is PFE fiser if you want to do me a favor if I added any value to you at all today make sure you're subscribed drop a like and drop me a comment let me know what Stu you're buying now
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