저자: Mr.FIREDUpWealth · 외국인
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테슬라 1분기 인도량 38.7만대로 전년比 8.5% 감소, 2020년 이후 첫 연간 감소. 생산은 43.3만대. BYD에 전기차 판매 1위 반환. 연간 인도 추정치 하향(181만대 대비 약 8% 증가 가능성 언급). 주가 165달러 부근, 150달러 이하 분할매수 구간 제시하나 장기(5년) 강세 견해 유지. 4월 23일 실적발표가 핵심 변수.
다듬은 글
Tesla stock down over 5% today off of delivery numbers now I'm going to break those down I'm also going to cover a few things that you might have missed and I'll tell you if I think the stock is a buy or not right now uh these are not good David that's why the stock is down deliveries in the first quarter of 387,000 vehicles let me put that into some perspective the fact set consensus as of Friday and it had been coming down was for 457,000 vehicles to be delivered first quarter of last year the company delivered 422,000 so this is a year-over-year decline the first since 2020 that we've seen from Tesla uh and in terms of production the company produced 433,000 Vehicles they do point out the fact that they had the change in the ramp up in production in Fremont as they come up with the new uh model 3 Highland Ed Edition they also had the Red Sea issue also the issue with production at the gigafactory in Berlin so obviously you know by now that Tesla's one of the most polarizing stocks basically ever I've been investing 25 years and haven't really seen a whole lot of companies like this has a cult following and honestly the CEO Elon Musk it's a LoveHate relationship either you love the guy anything he does or you don't like the guy at all now that's always going to create an interesting Dynamic for the stock and for the company as a long-term investor who successfully invested in growth for over two decades I look at the big picture and I look very longterm I tried to to see what the future might look like I don't think there's any question that right now the company is going through some headwinds let's take a look at a few headlines Tesla shares fall after deliveries dropped 8.5% from a year ago and this is Tesla's first year-over-year decline in delivery since 2020 basically during the pandemic so total deliveries 386,000 total production 433,92 now what's interesting here is production declined about 1.7% from a year earlier and 12.5% sequentially but not nearly as steep as the 8.5% annual drop in deliveries now dererk I know you and I talked about this in the comments on YouTube we talked about how it could possibly right now FSD is something where Elon Musk is forcing everybody to get a test drive now of course these numbers aren't going to reflect that but you have to wonder if that might impact things for the next quarter and the next quarter and so on I don't really know for sure but it is something to think about it's something to consider so fax set took 11 estimates from analysts and the expectation was around 457,000 that number has been coming down but the estimates range from a high of 51,000 deliveries which is way off to a low of 414,000 and it missed all of them now we did know about this right we knew that production would slow down because of this ramp up for the model 3 at the Fremont California Factory Tesla also faced other challenges such as attacks on shippers in the Red Sea and temporarily suspended production at its German Factory outside of Berlin in January in March environmental activists set fire to infrastructure near that same Factory depriving Tesla of sufficient operation power and again causing pause in production and one of the big things you hear a lot about is the competition you talk about Chinese competition including byd not said by the company but clearly one of the main factors guys what's happening in China and we know what's happening there as they have lowered their production and we've seen the announcements uh or the reports come out of China and that clearly has an impact here now here's something that's really interesting that I found about byd byd hands back top eveve seller title to Tesla after q1 sales declin this just happened so byd sold 3,114 EVS in the first quarter and Tesla had 386,000 deliveries so what does that tell you it tells you that EV demand is weak across the board it's not just Tesla but wait a minute I thought the economy is doing really well I thought consumers were doing well I thought consumers were spending money so what's going on here I mean looking closer at this with byd sales fell 40 3% compared to the fourth quarter of 2023 now of course there are dynamics here because you're talking about China versus Tesla which is a combination right you're not buying byd vehicles at this point in the United States and we know that the Chinese economy hasn't been doing quite as well as the US economy but this quarterly drop from byd gives Tesla the title back so why are EV sales down according to Motor Trend it's said that price is a factor even with the tax incentives Eevees typically cost more than hybrids and many Americans are worried about about charging their vehicles if you follow this channel you know that that has been my concern where I live it's not easy to get access to charging stations if you live in a major city it might not be something you even think about it might not be a concern at all especially if you're just taking a Tesla to working back something like that and you're just charging it at home but if you're trying to use a Tesla to go cross country well depending on where you are in the US there could be some challenges there I was going to say Phil uh full year estimates I guess we can say goodbye to some two handles right oh I think that's that's a given uh most were already bringing them under two we had a few people saying 1.91 million deliveries for the year as as the estimate that they were putting out there for some perspective and I don't know if we can pull up the chart that we have showing annual deliveries they delivered 1.81 million Vehicles last year and if they were to go to go to 1.92 1.93 that would be about an 8% increase in deliveries now the question becomes do they hit 1.81 million is there a possibility that they don't even make that um that possibility is out there but it's early and a lot of things can change obviously production is is likely to come back much stronger and deliveries should improve in in Europe they've been clearing out a lot of inventory in the first quarter uh and if things start to firm up a bit then certainly we expect higher numbers uh in the second third and fourth quarter to what extent remains to be seen China's the wild card in all of this guys they are brutally competitive in terms of what's happening with EVs and EV pricing and that having an impact I'm a visual learner and I'm guessing if you're on YouTube you probably learn visually as well there's a startup company called Mega charts and I want to show you guys this this is giving you some unique kpis this is for Tesla so you go to megga charts.com type in Tesla it's got Universal kpis as well as these unique kpis and this is showing you that vehicle production that he just mentioned so you can see in 2023 1.8 million 2022 1.31 million 2021 936 th000 and so on this is very powerful for me as a visual seeing this ramp up from 10,300 vehicle production in 2017 to 1.8 million in 2023 and looking at the revenue of Tesla you can see how we've ramped up from 2016 to 2023 this company has really grown into itself and of course that debate is always is this a car company or is it something else I call this a clean energy conglomerate it does have a lot of moonshots that aren't even really talked about or included in metrics such as Optimus may or may not ever happen we do know that energy storage right that is part of Tesla's business you can see how that's ramped up from 2019 to 2023 and it's continuously growing you can also look at stats like vehicle deliveries services and other revenue and more you can also look at a chart here this goes all the way back to 2017 this was a $21 stock and you can see how it ripped up here in 2021 and it's been kind of a roller coaster you know you saw the stock come down to almost $100 a share think $18 back here in 2023 early 2023 so just over a year ago and now the Stock's trading at about $165 but you can go in here and look at Universal kpis Insider training the cash and the balance sheet dividends of course there aren't any dividends ratios and More in fact looking at cash and working capital here Tesla has cash and cash equivalents of $16.4 billion as of December of 2023 so the company's in a great cash position but this is called megga charts.com and I do have a link in the description as well as in the pin comments and I have a coupon code that you can use it's fired up wealth check it out and see if it's a tool that you can utilize in your tool belt to be a better investor so most of the headlines today are going to be pretty negative out there this is another one here Tesla releases q1 2024 deliveries disastrous results now going on to xier looking at some of the Bulls the well-known names like Gene monster he says he believes Tesla's on the right track and the storm will pass EVS are a better way to move a car company and autonomy is a better way to get around Tesla's investing in that future while other car makers are slowing their investment like GM Ford and so on Gary black also on X you know far below consensus I checked out a couple other ones this is a smaller account top five bullish spins on Tesla q1 volumes that he's seeing Tesla's not a car company only FSD matters I just did a video last week talking about this it's a supply not a demand problem well I could argue that maybe it's a little bit of both must called off end of quarter push that explains it well that's your opinion I guess it's Up For Debate stock only down 5% suggests the bottom is in now and byd as we already talked about was even worse now I'm a bit surprised today because the stock honestly is holding up pretty well considering the whole Market selling off it's 16641 right now down about 5% it got as low as 16343 and later we will look at a chart and I'll tell you where I think the stock could go there are a couple of key things to keep in mind and I'll talk about those here in a second looking at profitability A+ here on Seeking Alpha you know if you look at this it has a D for gross profit margin but it does have some very positive numbers here including net income per employee TTM about $107,000 the growth has obviously slowed down but 16.86% still for Ford Revenue growth in the valuation this is where it always gets a little bit tricky is this a car company or is it a technology company if it's a car company you know you're looking at a peg Gap TTM 2.17 now that's not insanely expensive usually if it's one or less that's going to be pretty attractive although you don't see that very often in high quality names the PE Gap TTM 40.75 and according to Seeking Alpha that forward Gap that PE ratio is a 66.1 18 so definitely not cheap especially if you consider this a car company now Tesla will have earnings coming up we're in earnings season here coming up next week in April 23rd we're going to get earnings from Tesla recently I did a video I said 165 to 175 is a decent DCA area dollar cost averaging area for Tesla but I said it could go much lower especially if delivery numbers Miss and now the big thing you're going to have to watch is earnings if earnings Miss if you have a really bad earnings report this stock could go lower now looking at this trend line This is a trend line kind of going down before I cover that obviously it's self-explanatory these earnings are going to be huge for Tesla and we've seen the grow you know slow down we've seen delivery slow down the margins have compressed now the story here for a long-term investor we're looking for those numbers to improve towards the back half of the Year obviously interest rates are not coming down quite yet and that does have an impact on the stock as well another big thing to remember is that EV credits there are some EV credits that are going away in 2024 and that is a risk if say there's a new Administration and some of those EV credits go away so there's certainly plenty of headwinds for Tesla again I'm thinking about this company as a fiveyear investment knowing the stock could go lower and really wanting the stock to go lower because I want to buy more shares at a lower price we broke slightly here at $160.5 you can see we're above it right now and if you come down to the bottom where these two blue lines intersect it's about $150 a share I think if earnings are bad for Tesla you could see the stock $150 or less I am bullish long term though and I do like this stock I think the future is bright it's going through a tough time right now for me it's a time to accumulate thinking about 5 years or more as a long-term investor if you're new here and
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