저자: Mr.FIREDUpWealth · 외국인
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테슬라 2분기 인도량 443,000대(시장 예상 436,000대 상회, 생산 410,000대)로 호실적 발표. 머스크 56조 보상안 주주 승인, 로보택시 행사(8/8) 등 촉매로 주가 30% 상승. 발언자는 과거 $175 이하 분할매수, $150 선호를 주장했고 목표가 $200~$250을 제시. 단기 매도 압력 가능성도 언급. 실적발표(7/23)와 로보택시 행사가 주요 변수로 꼽힘.
다듬은 글
what's going on with Tesla stock up over 9% today in the past month up almost 30% so what's next for Tesla first of all why is the stock popping where is it headed next this video's got you covered got the Q2 delivery numbers for Tesla and these are better than expected remember the street was expecting about 436,000 Vehicles delivered worldwide in the second quarter Tesla delivering 443,000 in the second quarter 95% of them as it usually is model 3 and model Y and so this is much better than was expected production coming in at 411,000 Vehicles all right so hot off the presses this is right from Tesla's investor relations page so you got model 3 Andy production 3865 76 deliveries 422,000 other models production 24255 deliveries 2,551 and you can see the total here production 410,000 deliveries in the 3 months ending June 30th so a significant beat about 4,000 Vehicles more and of course as you saw in that clip earlier some estimates were even lower as low as 436,000 now with that said the total number of deliveries in the second quarter did fall about 4.8% that's from 466,000 a year earlier but also Rose 14.8% from that first quarter so you've got this perfect storm of course on the downside there's always a perfect storm to make the stock go lower and lower and sentiment was pretty washed out we've been saying this channel you know $175 or less DCA for several months we've been saying this with a preference below $150 for Tesla stock whenever the sentiment is that bad you're going to need a catalyst to get the ball rolling to get that stick out of the mud now the first Catalyst was when Elon went on Twitter on X and said hey we're going to do this robotx event on August 8th and then not long after that we had shareholder votes for Elon Musk getting his 56 billion payday package now this isn't a done deal but it gives investors optimism and of course this is a huge risk and this is part of the reason why the sentiment is so bad and when this 56 billion package got approved by shareholders it still has to get through the courts that was another Catalyst add fuel on the fire so you had an oversold stock you had terrible sentiment also you got the robo taxy event announcement then you have this announcement if you follow me on X I said back on June 13th the stock is up almost 30% since I posted this I said Tesla is about to fly if momentum holds easily $200 then $250 patient investors will be rewarded $175 or less DCA with $150 preference has been the message here all year and keep in mind Tesla was one of the most shorted stocks in May so had all these things working against it and then everything that momentum just kind of turning the other direction now you've got a perfect storm to the upside side and this always happens recently we've been buying Snowflake and mongod DB in Discord now all of a sudden you see analysts come out and say hey these are the stocks to buy you've seen snowflake pop over 15% just in the past 5 days and mongod DB as well 15.37% in the past 5 days now just a week ago today I did a top seven stocks to buy and mongod DB snowflake were both on that video and two weeks before that we dropped a Tesla video said the stock was going to go to$ 200 maybe even $250 if you're new here and you're not subscribed to this Channel Make sure you do subscribe because you don't want to miss content like this that can help you be a better investor so where is Tesla's stock headed next and of course a lot of that's going to depend on earnings which earning season right around the corner we will look at a chart I think a lot of this has to do with the 88 event as well but what do analyst say Obviously we don't buy or sell just based off of analyst price targets but I think it is something good to at least look at now of course it's a polarizing stock you're going to have bears and Bulls the lowest price Target according to tip ranks is $22.8 the highest is 310 and the average is $182.92 which is a 20% downside from here you've got 12 buys 13 holds and eight sells so why would Wall Street analysts be so divided on a stock like Tesla well the macro hasn't really supported Tesla very well you think about it think about stocks like nase and Tesla just as two examples these companies are going to be interest rate sensitive in other words as interest rates are high it's going to be harder for a consumer to buy something like a Tesla vehicle now of course there are things to combat that one of those things was Elon Musk and Tesla lowering prices that's going to of course make it more affordable you've got demand that's pretty low interest rates are high it makes sense to make the car is less expensive now of course that's impacted the margins which is one of those negative catalysts why the stock sold off so hard and of course you've heard about the $7,500 us tax credit but you also see Tesla news such as launching Limited time 99% APR Loan in the US for model y orders obviously things like this have helped Tesla immensely in the short term Wall Street doesn't like it but you're starting to see some results this also cut some headcount made some improvements to efficiency and of course don't forget about Tesla cutting its FSD down to $99 a month which is a huge discount from what it used to cost this is definitely one of the catalysts that helped the stock turn around so now we're getting to the back half of 2024 and interest rates will probably start coming down the end of this year and into 2025 so some investors are buying this looking to the Future looking out say 6 to 12 months now with that said I'm going to show you a chart and I'm going to tell you some thoughts of where it could go but keep in mind that robotaxi event is on 88 so August 8th and often times you have that buy the rumor sell the news so there certainly could be some volatility especially because this stock just ripped really hard from its recent lows as I've told you on this channel many times this is one of the most polarizing stocks that I've ever seen in my 25 years of investing and you're going to have bears and Bulls pretty much all the time the channel has tons of videos about Tesla and the bull case and we can go on and on about for example Optimus we don't even use Optimus when we're looking at our numbers that's really just a moonshot and if that plays out the stock could be worth so much more down the road of course a lot of people want to call it a car company people want to call it a technology company so you guys know the bull case very well if you follow this channel if not make sure you subscribe go look at some other videos on the channel on the barcase side of course one argument always going to be that hey this is a car company and it shouldn't trade at a premium because it's just like any other car company some people believe that you also have to be very aware of competition and this next clip here talks about China and byd and I think it's important even if you are extremely bullish on the stock to listen to this clip again the reason you're seeing shares move higher this is a better than expected number for the second quarter earlier today we got Tesla's China numbers and that had a few people a little bit nervous remember China is the world's largest ev market and therefore you want to watch it closely because it's such a big part of Tesla's overall sales around the world in June sales total 71,7 Vehicles down 24% year-over-year for the second quarter Tesla is in China a little over 200,000 Vehicles delivered and I want to show you where Tesla is relative to byd because byd's q1 sales of electric vehicles we're not talking hybrids pure electric vehicles so you can compare those with Tesla they came in at 426,000 Vehicles so Tesla Still Remains number one worldwide and there you see VW GM and gie as well and in terms of annual sales I'll be curious what this does to the estimate of what analysts are expecting for the full year right now it's come down to 1.82 million Vehicles expected to be delivered this year by Tesla for a point of reference it was 1.81 Million last year so essentially flat do analysts now say okay maybe we're starting to see some momentum here maybe we raise the full year delivery estimate now as you take a look at shares of Tesla couple of important dates to keep in mind July 23rd after the Bell that's when we will get the Q2 results and we'll see what kind of impact uh pricing in China has had on those Q2 results and then on August 8th this is the one that so many are focused on this is when Elon Musk he talks about the robo taxi what's the plan do they show us a vehicle do they give us a timeline in terms of Robo taxi being deployed Geo fenced areas all over the place tons of questions surrounding uh what they're going to say about the robo taxi that comes up on August 8th but again guys 4 Q2 better than expected deliveries from Tesla now that was a great clip for a couple reasons number one gave you some insight into that competition and then secondly it provided you with some really key dates earnings is really right around the corner and then you have the robo taxi event shortly after earnings so I mean earnings could come in bad and the stock could sell off macro is always more important than the chart and you could also get a lot of enthusiasm that could pump the stock higher maybe not that fundamentals would support it or even the technicals necessarily but people get get excited about the robotaxi event as well and of course again you often have that bu the rumor sell the news but let's look at a chart and I'll tell you exactly where I think Tesla stock could go really since the beginning of 2024 we've said that we like Tesla as a buy $175 or less DCA dollar cost average with a preference of $150 or less and we circled This months ago and said this is the area that i' really load up the truck it did get into that range of course it didn't go as low as it could have possibly gone but it did bottom here at $138 180 this was towards the end of April of 2024 you can see the stock did consolidate has now ripped and we are Above This R3 right here this is the Fibonacci Pivot Point R3 Resistance 3 you can see we've kind of broken to the top side of this channel now there's a good chance we're above all the moving averages we're above the Fibonacci retracement we're really above everything and we're outside of this channel there's a chance that we have an extension here or it could consolidate and break down any time often times when you see a stock run hard like this it does have a little bit more gas in the tank and it can go a little bit higher but you should expect some sort of selling soon now we said that $200 is going to happen we said the stock was about to explode this was about a month ago and the stock is up 30% since we said that and we said $200 with possibly $250 on the upside so $250 is right here where this blue line is that is possible now it could break down anytime before that it could always even go higher than $250 that is possible too it's going to depend on earnings that are coming up just in a few weeks and then of course that Robo taxi event this is why we like to buy stocks when they're at the prices we want to buy them $175 or less DCA if you did that bought them at 175 165 150 140 you'd be sitting really nice in a position very green and generally what we're teaching here is long-term investing so we're trying to DCA buy stocks and hold them for 5 years or more now that's not buy and hold forever that's buy hold and monitor and high quality companies never marry your Investments now I'm back making this video only 4 days after my knee surgery so I hope this video was helpful if you're here subscribe drop a like drop a comment have a great rest of your day take care
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