저자: Mr.FIREDUpWealth · 외국인
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테슬라 3분기 실적은 EPS 0.72달러로 예상(0.58달러)을 상회했지만 매출 21.8억달러(예상 25.37억달러 아님, 자막상 수치 불명확)은 소폭 미달. 규제 크레딧 수익이 이익률을 끌어올림. 에너지 저장 사업 성장(52%), 서비스 매출 29% 증가, 사이버트럭·사이버캡·옵티머스·세미트럭 등 신사업 기대 제시. 주가는 시간외 약 8~9% 상승, 밸류에이션은 고평가로 평가. 장기 투자자 관점에서 차트상 175달러 이하 매수 구간 언급, 단기로는 250~300달러 저항 제시.
다듬은 글
Tesla earnings are out the stock is up over 7% after hours why is Tesla stock headed higher where is it going next I've got you covered headline Tesla shares jumped 6% on profit beat if you look at it it's actually up over 9% after hours now one thing to note here Revenue did come in just shy of expectations so EPS very solid 72 cents a share versus 58 cents expected Revenue 2.18 billion versus expectation 25.3 7 billion so again a slight miss here Revenue increased 8% in the quarter from 23.35% billion or 62 cents a share from 1.85 billion or 53 cents a share a year ago profit margins were boosted by Automotive regulatory credit Revenue during the quarter $739 million of course the company has been offering array of discounts to incentivize sales of course stocks like Tesla are interest rate sensitive we've been talking about this in the channel for a while when rates are higher it's more expensive to finance a vehicle and so Tesla has been having to use those incentives to get people to buy their cars during a tough time for the automotive industry as a whole now in theory as the FED lowers rates of course interest rate sensitive stocks like Tesla should benefit Automotive Revenue itself increased 2% to $20 billion from 19.63% to 2.38 billion now of course the majority of the revenue is still from Automotive but I do think the energy in the the storage business can be huge for Tesla down the road services and other Revenue also jumped 29% to $2.79 billion and this is a great infographic to break it down you can see the light blue is total Automotive revenues services and other in that dark blue color and then energy generation and storage in the yellow you can see the top of this chart here is 24 billion and it said that a couple times this quarter is just shy but a big improvement from two quarters ago as you probably know already earlier this month Tesla reported third quarter vehicle deliveries of 462,000 also produced 469,000 others didn't but the Cyber cab this is announced here talking about autonomous vehicles this could be big for Tesla in the future it's kind of a cool design a lot of people say these designs are basically a ripoff from iroot now what's interesting about that is you can see here wi robot so it's not really hiding it so this Robo van has space for up to 20 people in design for autonomy Robo taxi charging wireless charging removes the need for a human of course Optimus is a moonshot for Tesla a lot of people think that hey everybody's going to want to have one of these in their house of course there's be competition the reality is not everybody's going to want to have one just like if you think of oculus you think of arvr goggles it's not for everybody the Fremont California Factory just produced its 7 millionth vehicle which I think is something to point out PowerAll 3 is also available now and this is really important this is the semif factory and construction continues to progress now look at this picture cuz it's eye opening this is September 4th 2024 and this is a month and a week later October 11th 2024 look how much progress they've made now this Factory is going to be four 4 million square ft once operational Tesla expects to produce 50,000 semis per year that would make Tesla the second largest semi manufacturer in the United States that includes electric and Diesel behind only the number one which is freight liner so lots of irons in the fire for Tesla when you think of autonomous you think of semis you think of energy and energy stores autonomous robot taxis and much more now many people think that Tesla is an AI and Robotics company others think it's just an automotive company depending on how you view Tesla you're going to put a different value on it and this is always going to be that polarizing stock the bare bull case I'd like you to comment below let me know do you think that this is an AI this is a technology company or is it just a car company now these are some important metrics for you to take a look at as well cash operating cash flow $6.3 billion in Q3 so cash and cash equivalent or Investments they're saying here $2.9 billion increase and they're sitting on $ 33.6 billion in cash so not going to run out of cash anytime time soon increased the AI training compute by over 75% in Q3 so is it an AI company or not cybertruck becomes the third bestselling EV in Q3 in the US behind only the model Y and the model 3 over 2 billion miles billions and billions and billions driven cumulatively on FSD supervised as of Q3 with more than 50% on version 12 cost of goods sold this is important for margins came down to the lowest level ever at$ 35,00 $100 trying to make EVS affordable for everyone including making total cost of ownership per mile competitive with other forms of transportation despite sustained macro headwinds and others pulling back on EV Investments we remain focused on expanding our vehicle and energy product lineup reducing cost in making critical investments in AI projects and production capacity we believe these efforts will allow us to capitalize on ongoing transition in the transportation and energy sectors I look at Tesla as a clean energy a green energy conglomerate it's it's almost like its own little ETF it's why I own it my portfolio this is one of my top Holdings probably in the top 10 I haven't looked at my portfolio for a little bit when you look at numbers like total Automotive revenues you can see you know 2% year-over-year but energy 52% Services 29% we talked about earlier 8% total on Revenue the big thing and why the stock is popping 20% here in total gross profit if you recall Tesla has been one of those stocks where the market would pay a premium if the the margins were higher than the competition so even if it is a car company if it has twice good margins well we can pay a bit of Premium on the price of the stock margins have been compressed and they're starting to come back now we said a couple quarters ago that we saw the the trough of that and you would start to see that accelerate and improve and that's exactly what's happening here later we're going to look at a chart and you can see where we were buying it in Discord I also tell you where I think the stock could be headed next of course charts are just possibilities but adjusted EIT a margin you know 243 basis points 24% some pretty solid numbers here across the board operating expensive is down 6% and so on so in a nutshell growth in deliveries growth in energy generation and storage as well as services and other higher FSD Revenue recognition year of a year higher regulatory credit Revenue which is a plus but it could also be looked as a con it's a pro but it could be looked as a con or a risk as well if these go away this could impact Tesla significantly reduce the ASP that's the average selling price so you got lower cost per vehicle you've got growth in vehicle deliveries decrease in operating expenses these are the key metrics that are sticking out to me right now at first glance so you see that model 3 and Y production up 6% other models 91% so things like the Cyber Tru other model deliveries 43% of course if Tesla can keep coming out with new vehicles and selling those and expand their product line that is going to be huge for Tesla and its future growth and I think the semi is a big part of that as well as other vehicles that are coming down the pipeline cybertruck it is kind of a novelty but a lot of people are buying them right now and that storage deployed up at whopping 75% supercharger stations up 20% connectors 22% and more now looking at capacity you can see the different factories here from California Berlin Texas Nevada Shanghai this is a great update here some good infographics one thing that sticks out cybertruck production increased sequentially and achieved a positive gross margin for the very first time this is talking about the FSD miles driven as well as artificial intelligence software and Hardware in Q3 they released the 12.5 series of FSD supervised I do think FSD has come a long way if you look at the newer releases our summer release included YouTube and Amazon music as native apps parents can now enable parental controls via pin I think there's a whole ecosystem here to be aware of so they're telling us they're between two major growth waves the first began with the global expansion of the model 3 Andy platform and believe the next one will be advances in autonomy and introduction of new products including those built on our next Generation vehicle platform plans for new vehicles including more affordable models we've heard about this for a long time we've talked about on the channel the $255,000 model we'll see what happens with that that remains on track for starter production the first half of 2025 and this could be big for Tesla it really could be huge these vehicles are going to utilize the nextg platform as well as the current platforms and they'll be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as their current vehicle lineups meaning they don't have to build new factories and spend a bunch of capex which the market never likes you can see Tesla right now is up over 8% after hours 52 we High 271 52 we low 1380 after hours about $233 a share so we're sitting around a $700 billion market cap the TTM the 12 months trailing PE around a 60 so looking at the fundamentals here in the valuation is it a cheap stock not really right profitability you see those numbers are improving Seeking Alpha gives it an A+ 177% this number is a little bit higher which is good you know growth it's starting to come back 12.65% and that valuation it is expensive and this is where it's going to be tough for if you're a value investor to say hey this is just a car company it's no different than Ford or GM there's no way I'm paying 115 Ford Gap e ratio for Tesla and that's a fair point this stock is definitely not for everybody you're looking at price of sales Ford 6.96 now that's really expensive is the most expensive stock I've looked at in the last week not even close some of them are 40 and 50 I'm not saying that it justifies a seven the market itself is pretty expensive right now in a lot of areas and looking at analyst price targets guys this is never a reason to buy or sell a stock but you have 11 buys 16 holds eight sells very polarizing bears versus bulls of course you've got 20 783 so that's a 2.72% downside actually more downside because it's up 9% After Hours the highest price Target on the street these are Wall Street analysts $310 the lowest $24.86 of course this is a very huge Spectrum so it's going to give you an average price target of 20783 now these are extreme bears and some people would argue these are extreme bulls and you get a number that's really hard in the middle what is Tesla really valued it depends on how you look at it it really depends on your time frame too of course Traders are going to jump into this stock they're going to buy and sell they're going to try to make a profit if you're investing in it long term you're thinking about the future and the growth in so many areas that we just talked about on this video I'm going to show you a chart next and that's going to tell you where we were buying where the stock could be headed next if you're new here and you want to be a better investor make sure you smash that subscribe button and click that Bell for notifications and if this video was helpful at all please return the favor drop me a like drop me a comment let me know what you think about Tesla S analysis one thing to point out here a lot of people miss this that are new to the channel we are long-term investors and we're looking at charts in a different way we're not looking at these trying to be a day trader or a swing Trader we're looking at as a long-term investor where are good areas to buy or to trim better entry and exit points and possibilities on a chart the chart's not going to tell you where the Stock's going to be in 5 years based off of the fundamentals the fundamentals are 99% of the puzzle that last 1% we look at a chart to see where the stock could go now if you're a day trader or a swing Trader that's totally fine but you're going to look at a different chart cuz this is a yearly chart with daily Candles now we're looking at Fibonacci pivot Points and that's because it gives you a range and you can see the range right now 189 on this S3 support 3 the R2 up here 279 the R3 is that $300 level now we were buying this stock 175 or less DCA with a preference of 150 or less DCA so if you're buying it in that 175 160 138 you've got a decent cost basis you're really happy in fact a lot of people in Discord were trimming it when it got to $250 $260 it felt down here to 213 now post Market the Stock's about right here you know 230 bucks a share if the bullish momentum continues it'll have to claw its way back to 250 round numbers matter if it can break past 250 probably 275 is another resistance area that R2 is 279 and then R3 is 300 and you're going to have strong resistance if it does get up there now this stock could roll over any time because Traders are going to move it there's going to be a lot of volatility so if you're investing in the stock I think that the opportunity was down here in this channel if you're trading momentum well we're going to have to kind of see what happens over the next couple days if the greater Market continues to sell off like it did today at NASDAQ down around 2% well stocks like Tesla are going to have a hard time climbing up to $300 a share if the market remains bullish you could see this $250 $275 $300 probably won't happen overnight it could even be in 2025 as interest rates continue to go down if this video is helpful please make sure to drop me a like drop me a comment have a great rest of your day take care
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