저자: JimCramer · 외국인
요약 보기
S&P500 6주 연속 상승 후 금리 급등(10년물 4.24%)과 매도로 증시 급락. 하지만 이는 건강한 조정이며 과거 금리 수준과 비교하면 4.2%는 낮은 편. 그래서 낮은 가격에 매수 기회로 봐야 하고, 인텔은 이미 많이 하락해 주식 회피 입장을 철회하지 않으나 매수 권유도 아님. 과거 상승 종목(애플, 엔비디아, 맥도날드)은 일시 조정 후 회복 가능성 언급.
다듬은 글
시장 급락의 원인과 금리 상승
Jim Cramer, when the S&P 500 goes up for six straight weeks, something incredible can happen. The market can actually go back down. That's right, it can sell off. It's pretty shocking, I know. Today I heard endless chatter about the death of the bull market because of the overwhelming selling from the get-go. After all, the yield on the 10-year Treasury has soared over the past month, shooting up to 4.24%, including a big move today. No wonder the averages got hammered. The Dow shed 400 to 410 points, the S&P plunged 0.92%, and the NASDAQ plummeted 1.60%. Believe it or not, that's much better than where the market was at the lows of the day.
주도주의 하락과 공포 분위기
Even worse, the stocks that led the decline were the market's old leaders: Apple, Nvidia, McDonald's, Meta, ARM Holdings. So many names with big gains. I don't know what to say. I have to default to that stock seer, Jim Morrison of The Doors: "This is the end, my only friend, the end." The end of our elaborate plans, the end of everything that stands. All right, look, I used to write obituaries for a living. I know what the end actually looks like. Markets in turmoil can't have an end today, before a Titanic sell-off. Right, Titanic being the operative term. Enough of the bogus exaggeration and needless hyperbole. I want to put the sell-off in a little perspective.
조정은 시장에 필요한 비
When you get many up days, and many up weeks, the market is prone to pullbacks, often indiscriminate pullbacks like some we saw today. Now you know I'm an inveterate gardener. I know we need sun, lots of sun, for the tomatoes to come up. Cherries, plums, beef steaks, you name it. But what's really a killer is no rain. If we don't get rain, we might as well be trying to grow tomatoes in the Sahara or even Death Valley. A sell-off is like rain. It's both a necessity and an inevitability. Yet what happens when it rains? We all act like cats. We get scared, we're afraid to go outside, scaredy cats. Well, news flash: you and I are not cats. I know exactly what rain does to cats to make them so skittish, and I used to have six of them. However, this kind of rain, like today's pullback, gives the bears all the ammunition they need to scare you out of the market with horror stories: October's past, the Great Crash of '29, Black Monday in '87, the nightmare of the financial crisis in 2008. The only thing that surprised me today is that no commentator invoked any of these dates while trying to scare the heck out of us.
채권시장 공포에 대한 역사적 관점
There's always tomorrow, and why not? Isn't the bond market terrifying? 4.2% on the 10-year has to be a blow under the head of the bull, right? And when you remember that October tends to be a terrible month for the market, maybe October 24th or 25th will bring more horror stories, as befits the newfound turmoil on the eve of Halloween. Though let me give you a little Casper the Friendly Ghost narrative that will set things right and take us out of the Twilight Zone. First, the stuff about the 10-year going to 4.2%, that many young people talk about every minute. That's really scary stuff, right? This time, like Scooby-Doo and Zombie Island, the monsters are for real. Look, I started this business more than 40 years ago, right down the block from here at Goldman Sachs, in a building that's now been turned into three-bedroom condos with a rooftop pool. I might have to buy a couple of units. Not long before I got to Goldman, the 10-year Treasury rate shot up to 15%. In December of '81 the Dow Jones average stood at 1,072, and the yield on the 10-year stayed above this current dreaded, frightening rate of 4.2% until July of 2002. For heaven's sake, in between, what happened? The Dow Jones Industrial Average went to 9,000. That's right: Dow 1,000 to Dow 9,000, during a period where the 10-year Treasury rate never fell to 4.2%. It was always above that, mostly well above that, and we had an incredible bull market almost the entire time, save for October of '87. I hope that gives you some perspective on the bond market versus the bull market. The great bull market of the '90s happened with substantially higher rates than we have right now. In absolute terms, 4.2% is low rates.
급등 종목의 조정은 건강한 신호
Second, stocks have made so many parabolic moves of late that I'm actually glad they're coming down. I was getting tired of saying you need to wait for a pullback every time someone called in about something good during the lightning round. Now that we're getting the pullback, should I tell you to stay indoors? I wonder who can stop the rain. For heaven's sake, can we just admit it's about time we had a reprieve from all this buying? We had a reprieve, by the way, in Tesla, then a pretty good quarter. Stocks can't forever go up in a straight line. Apple was at 165 in April, ran to 236 by Monday. It was due for a pullback, especially since we heard about tepid numbers for the iPhone 16, which launched a month ago. Is the iPhone 16 at this point still revelatory? Nvidia stood at 43 a year ago. Yesterday it was at 143. Doesn't even Nvidia deserve a rest? Wasn't it due for a pullback? Remember, from mid-July through early August, Nvidia fell from 134 to 98, then shot back up to 130 before plunging to 102 by early September. That was the fabled double top that didn't work. Both times I read the obituaries on Nvidia, with viewings and wakes galore. They read certifiably deadly, must have been prepared ahead of time, like those tremendous New York Times obits. Everything but the funeral. Yet even after today's $4 beatdown, Nvidia is still at 139, and change higher than its July peak. Something going wrong here? Of course not. The greatest stock of this generation is simply taking a periodic break, like we've seen many times before. Even the greatest horse of all time, Secretariat, lost the Whitney and the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe... I don't even know those horses. Some stocks have been so strong that it takes a true horror, like an E. coli outbreak, to stop the run. That's what happened to McDonald's, which has been straight up since it unveiled the $5 burger, running from 245 this summer to 317 two days ago. Today the Golden Arches got crushed, down almost $25 at one point, on an E. coli outbreak tied to the Quarter Pounder: 49 people sick, one fatality, 10 states. Might have been the onions. Even then McDonald's managed to rebound, finishing down just $16, or 5%. Or how about Starbucks, which announced an even worse loss than we expected, perhaps the benchmark of bad news from this sector. The stock got crushed last night and initially this morning, falling from 96 to 93, yet even then it bounced back and finished the day in the black. That's right, it finished up.
공포를 파는 언론과 투자자의 자세
You get what I'm trying to say, don't you? When I was a cub reporter at the now-deceased Los Angeles Herald-Examiner, it was my job to scare people, to scare readers. We had really bad circulation numbers at the Herald afternoon paper, not many of those still around, competing with the all-powerful Los Angeles Times. My marching orders were to frighten people out of their wits, make the panic indispensably scary. That's what I was told to do: make sure readers know how dangerous the world really is, and sell subscriptions, always mindful that people don't buy subscriptions if the news is constructive. Back then I played for keeps, so I couldn't stem the tide of destruction and death that appeared under my byline, sometimes three times a day. Now I have a different agenda. My agenda is nothing other than to help you make money, being constructive and opportunistic. That's my modus operandi, because the market has been pretty darn fabulous since I got in, and nothing really has changed. So let me give you the honest and good-faith bottom line: it's going to rain a bit. All those stocks where I told you to wait for the sell-off, well, here it is. Nobody knows how long the sell-off will last, so don't miss it. Things might be back to full price in a few days, maybe a week, or even two. Oh, unless you're a cat, in which case I would advise you to stay in.
시청자 질문: 인텔 투자 의견
Let's go to Joel in Florida. Joel, hey, how's it going? Not bad, Jim. How about you? Good, good. I just want to introduce myself before I ask a question. My name is Joel. I work as an IT technician. I'm always looking at stocks and learning how it works, so I figured I'd talk to a pro. My business is Revelation Technologies, RevTech, and I've been looking into Intel. What do you make of that? Okay, for the longest time I would have told you, please don't look. But the stock has come down enough that I have to tell you, Joel, I am not going to fight the tide anymore. I got people out about 40 points ago, 30 points ago. I'm done. I don't think it's a great stock either. Others are better, but I'm not going to tell you to sell it all. All right, listen to me, everybody: don't get scared out of buying stocks at lower prices. We've been waiting for this sell-off, so maybe you should even take advantage of it.
광고 및 다음 방송 예고
It's been a tough year for Etsy stock, and I'm seeing whether investors might be getting a better opportunity for the next quarter. When I sit down with the company's very cool holiday pop-up store in New York City, which teleported after the bell, I'm seeing how the toy company is positioning itself for the end of the year. And in my post-earnings exclusive with the company's top brass, in the face of a sell-off, it's a good reminder to make sure you have a diversified portfolio that can handle whatever this market throws at it. That's why we're playing Mad Money Diversified, to see if the portfolios of Crammers America pass the test. So stay with CNBC.
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