저자: Josh · 외국인
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엔비디아 실적 발표 전후 기술적 분석. 최근 상승(250%)으로 과매수 접근, 508달러 2일 연속 종가 돌파 시 560 목표, 이탈 시 450·424 재진입 구간 제시. 실적 전 선반영으로 실적 후 매도 위험, 중국 칩 규제 리스크 언급. 전반적으로 단기 상방 조건부 시나리오를 제시하며 FOMO 자제 권고.
다듬은 글
all right guys I've got a great show for you today and I'm going to be diving into nvidia's earnings because this stock is up 250% this year alone and it's going to have a big impact on the market going forward from the now until the end of this year it's either going to fire things up and cause this rally that we've been enjoying for the entire month of November to accelerate or it could potentially be a turnaround moment and a retest back to the downside so I'm going to dive into the technicals and I'm going to break down what I see I see a handful I've got made a handful of observations of the charts and I'm going to take a big picture view of what has been going on with this stock overall so let's dive into it this is the stocks with Josh show thank you for joining me a happy holiday week to you guys I'm going to be making less videos this week because I'm spending time out in Maryland with my family having a wonderful time and you might uh I might get interrupted while making this video with some kids coming into this room it's been happening um but it's all good just start off with a handful of observations on the technicals for NVIDIA over the last year for the most part we have been in the trade range between $400 and $500 now everybody knows that Nvidia just did a major fake out on all of the analysts including myself where it had created a bearish head and shoulders pattern with a neckline around $49 and we had been watching it and we had been trading it but it was a fake out to confirm that bearish head and shoulders pattern the market needed to close two days beneath that level and it only ever closed one day at the level and the next day took off like a rocket to the upside and so that was a massive fake out moment and I'm going to be as I get into the technicals and I break things down one of the bigger points I want to make is that a lot of money managers were taken by surprise because they were at the point where they were taking profits or beginning to short this stock and then the stock took off and so they weren't in it and so they're going to have to go back going into the end of this year and explain to the people that they're managing money and say hey you know what I read it wrong I didn't get into it I didn't invest your money into it and that's going to be a hard uh position to take especially if Nvidia takes off and goes even higher today they're going to have to close out this year owning some and so that's the Feeding Frenzy right now that's continuing to drive Nvidia to its all-time high today and uh that's what we're watching and so the fact is if they come out with great earnings and this thing takes off the stock could jump to the next level I'm going to break down what those next levels are but I also have some words of caution for you and some observations that you should take a step back and maybe not participate in that fomo I will give you guys some better long-term entries that I would be eyeing as well you know I'm going to break it down for you guys so let's just that's my first observation the money managers they're in a bad spot because they cannot go into the end of this year telling their clients that they didn't buy in Nvidia and then they missed the entire move so they're going to have to do some catchup but here's what we're going to be watching the critical level that we need to keep our eye on technically is 508 if this thing gets a above 508 and closes for a couple days in a row then the stock is telling us that it's beginning its journey to $560 and in my mind that's going to be a confirmed breakout and so the second observation I want you guys take in on Nvidia is give it a little time to confirm Direction the confirmation that the Bulls would be looking for would be a two-day close above 508 now even if this thing goes screaming up to 514 after hours that doesn't matter for the trend to be confirmed bullish the next two Market days has to close above 508 mark it on your charts and uh try to take a little bit of a Long View this will be a great learning experience if you're learning charts Mark that 508 level and let's see what happens if this thing closes above it now on the RSI we are right near near the overbought area but we're not at the overbought area and we can definitely go above the overbought area but it's worth noting that we are not at the oversold level we are right coming up on the overbought area so be mindful of that that means that this has been moving up for a while and we know that it's gone from 400 bucks all the way to 500 bucks and so we're getting ready to be overbought so keep that in mind but from a bullish perspective there's no bearish Divergence on the RSI chart and in addition to that we don't have any bearish candles on The Daily the weekly or the monthly which if you know what you know if you know these charts you know that that means that there is plenty of room to the upside with no bearish Divergence on the RSI which means momentum is not slowing down and there are no rejection candles rejection candles are candles with big tall Wicks at the top and so this thing is looking bullish right now from a bearish perspective we do have a gap to fill back at $424 which means that if this thing goes bearish let's say it runs up to 514 after hours but then it slowly bleeds off there are two target points I want you guys to put on your charts as a potential reentry to go long on Nvidia the first one is going to be around $450 that seems to be an area of accumulation the second one would be to fill that Gap at $424 and so if you guys get all stirred up and excited about Nvidia and they come out and they Crush their earnings and everybody is reminded why this might become one of the world's biggest companies in the next five years still don't fomo let the market do what the Market's going to do and realize that even if it were to shoot up to 560 it could still come back and give us a 450 entry over the course of the next three months and so do you want to be a patient investor or do you want to chase tops that's always the question the market presents to us and again you've heard me say it over and over again never have fomo on Wall Street I always view it like a train heading to cash City every five minutes another Train's going to come along if it's not Nvidia it'll be another stock if it's going up will make money if it's going down will make money okay the next thing I want to point out like I said to you guys before is that we had been looking at a head and shoulders pattern that didn't play out now it's completely eradicated with this move all the way back up to 500 and the shape of the current pattern that I see in Nvidia is a bullish flag pattern which is actually a continuation pattern which means that as it forms a large move up and it vacillates and creates a flag shape they often break to the upside going even higher and so that bullish flag pattern that I'm looking at right now is indicating that Nvidia is still on a strong Trend and we knew that so we're not going to get that cheap Nvidia like we hoped for we're not going to get that $384 Nvidia like we were hoping for it's just not happening this thing is the opportunity of going higher but it doesn't mean that today's the day to buy long term let me take a real quick station break before I give you guys my conclusions on Nvidia and how I'm looking to play it uh over on the Discord now that's a stock Squad patreon with stock Keenan Grace stock up with Larry Jones and myself now we are making plays over there every single day now I made a couple plays yesterday and I did a play on Tesla and I'm probably going to update some charts and give you some more plays even still today if you don't know what that is that's the stock Squad patreon there's a link in the top pin comment you can come join that to get more information from me and to get some of my trades as well as trades from the stock Squad okay guys I also want to talk briefly with you guys if you need better trade tools check out the link for the m Investment app as well as the Weeble Investment app right here on Black Friday and going into this month they're giving away free stocks to help you guys begin your trading journey to start you off with some money in your account you put some money in they will add and give you guys some free stock check out the offer there from the two of those companies both links are in the top pin comment as well all right three overall observations that I want to give you guys regarding Nvidia that I think are pretty important to process before taking any position or making any decision on Nvidia today or getting caught up in the excitement or what could be a Monumental uh bearish event we don't know we're going to see what the earnings tell us the first is that the stock has run up pre- earnings which is really not one of the best uh scenarios to trade earnings you would prefer to get out of it right before earnings on a runup move and so running up before earnings means that the earnings has been given the benefit of the doubt and if they make a single mistake or have a single problem the stock then will sell off it'll basically be buy the rumor sell the news it's the most classic Wall Street move and so that's the first thing I want to point up to you guys we ran up before earnings now the second is that we still Nvidia does have headwinds and specifically 25% of their market share their revenue is out in China and we are still dealing with this chip ban that the government put on the company this year and if we get some bearish news coming out of these earnings regarding that chip ban or it affects the sales of Nvidia this particular quarter which I really think it's mostly going to affect sales in 2024 but if there's a hint of that in this quarter that's another reason why the market could take profit and be skittish and sell but the other thing I want you guys is the final observation to consider when looking at Nvidia going into these earnings is that the macro event that we're in right now is PR strong what is the macro event well bond yields have been coming down we're going into the end of the year we have the seasonality we have the fact that the money managers need to own some Nvidia in their portfolio to to show their clients that they're buying winning stock so the macro event for November and December remains pretty strong those are the three big setups for this earnings today then now we come down to the discussion of what strategies do we have for playing earnings now the first strategy I would suggest would be to play a straddle however I will warn you guys that the implied volatility right now on the options is pretty high which means that the options both the puts and the calls have become pretty expensive and so if you were to play a straddle you would have to get it all dialed in perfectly or even if you guessed the direction correctly that the market was going favored that direction you could still lose money on both the calls or the puts so keep that in mind I guess the safest way to play is what I've already alluded to at the beginning of this video which is basically to let the market show us what it wants to do let the market confirm that trend for example we would get two days of a close above the 58 price to show us that it could possibly go up to 560 and so we might miss a lot of of that trade we might miss the runup from 500 to 515 but we could then get the continued move all the way up to 560 or to let it see if it Peaks out falls back below 508 spends a couple bearish days closing beneath 508 would be a confirmation that we're actually going to come back and get a better price possibly that 450 possibly that 424 and so I guess my overall or most significant uh way that I'm going to be playing it is I'm probably not going to take a straddle on earnings I'm probably going to wait and see what the market gives us if you were going to play earnings if you're going to play calls if you're going to be bullish you needed to have done them as this thing has run up every single day for the last couple weeks so we're going to be watching it and I will be giving some updated technicals over on the Discord to help out those who are trading it I will give you guys these two target points to put on your chart as far as an up Target we have a significant area of resistance at 530 as far as a down Target the next significant area of support is 468 and if you guys have been following this page you know that I give solid technicals those are reliable numbers we're either going to be heading up to 530 or we're going to be heading down to 468 very very soon guys this week is a shorter trade week Thursdays the markets are closed and on Friday the markets close early at 1 p.m.
eastern time I'm trying to stay connected with you I love you all I'm going to keep this one short thank you guys for joining me today thank you for hitting the like I appreciate every single comment even though I'm busy I still have my phone up and I still trying to hard a couple comments and answer a couple questions I appreciate all of you guys hit that subscribe if you're trying to learn the technicals and trade these choppy markets as always peace and blessings take care we'll talk to you soon
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