저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 영상은 워런 버핏의 대규모 현금 보유가 시장 고평가 신호이며 조정(하락)이 올 수 있다는 관점을 전달한다. 버핏 1962년 인터뷰 소개: 주식시장은 때때로 미래를 예측하지만 잘못 예측하기도 하며, 기업 이익과 배당이 따라오지 않는데 주가가 급등하면 조정이 필요할 수 있다고 언급. S&P500 비교: 2007년 고점 대비 지수는 약 100% 상승(약 1,500→3,200)한 반면 주당순이익은 약 50%(85→130달러) 증가에 그쳐 괴리가 크다고 주장. 버핏 현금 포지션: 2018년 주주총회 질의응답에서 버핏은 인덱스펀드 투자 대안을 인정하면서도 대규모 자금을 즉시 투입할 기회를 기다린다고 답변. 현금 보유는 시장이 비쌀 때 증가하고 저렴할 때 감소하는 지표로 해석됨. 2007년 이후 현금 비중이 약 3배 증가. 현금 보유의 비용: 2018년 기준 현금 약 1,120억 달러를 단기 국채에 두었을 때와 비교해 기회비용이 약 12% 수준이라는 주주 질의가 언급됨. 현금 1,280억 달러 이상, 시가총액 약 5,500억 달러로 현금이 전체 시총의 약 1/4이라고 강조. 버핏은 적정 가격의 좋은 기업을 찾기 어려운 상태로 해석됨. 출연자 전망: 크리스토퍼 알베르타(Christopher Alberta, 기업가·투자자, Forbes 30 Under 30 언급)는 2020~2021년 사이 큰 조정이 올 것으로 예상하며 양적완화가 붕괴를 늦췄다고 주장. 밸류에이션: S&P500 PER은 2000년 닷컴 버블 약 41, 2007년 약 60 이상으로 정점이었고 1929년 대공황 때 약 23 수준. 진행자는 PER 15 이하면 저평가, 높으면 고평가라는 간단한 기준을 제시. 진행자는 버핏의 현금 보유와 시장 조정 전망에 대해 시청자 의견을 요청하며 마무리.
다듬은 글
hey what is up guys stock market reaches new all-time high mark one after another this trend seems to be impossible to break however market is cyclical what goes up eventually will help to come down in this video we will take a look at the greatest investor of all time Warren Buffett who potentially is predicting and upcoming stock market crash Warren Buffett without a doubt the most successful investor in this generation he is a founder and the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway Berkshire Hathaway is a multinational conglomerate holding company that is ran and managed by Warren Buffett himself until this date he stilled the main financial analyst and a stock picker at age of 89 since 1965 Warren Buffett built unbelievable rate of returns his average compound rate of returns is approximately 20% comparing to an average 10% rate of returns of S&P 500 he beats the stock market 80% of the time year after year if you cannot comprehend what I just said let me simplify a bit if you would invest $1,000 in Berkshire Hathaway in 1980s when one share was around $250 of Berkshire Hathaway a class now you would have over 1.3 5 million dollars however if you would invest $1,000 in benchmark S&P 500 in 1980s when one share was at $120 now you will have over $25,000 there seems to be a huge difference right yes the power of compounding is eighth wonder of the world it is very powerful especially if you take it seriously well this is not the reason why I'm making this video I guess in the end we all agree that Warren Buffett is a phenomenal investor when he talks everyone should listen and he spoke in his first interview ever in 1962 you talking about a stock market crash let's take a quick look what exactly he had to say about the stock market back then and I will explain life matters today I think the president's action on steel probably had something to do with the timing of the decline but I don't think it was the the factor which determined the amount of the decline for some time stocks have been rising at rather rapid rates corporate earnings have not been rising dividends have not been increasing and it's not to be unexpected that perhaps a correction of some of those unusual factors on the upside might occur on the downside some observers from time to time say that the stock market is a forecaster of events to come can you predict would you care to take a look at what do you think this might be forecasting the decline the stock market has been a good forecaster from time to time in the past it also has been a rather poor forecaster occasionally for example the last four or five years the stock market has been booming along and presumably forecasting better business which is really not materialized corporate profits are not any better than they were five years ago but stock prices are 50% higher there abouts so maybe the stock market is really correcting a previous incorrect forecast this time rather than making a new correct one in that interview he stated that for some times the stock market was rising in a very rapid rate while corporate earnings have not bet rising and dividends cannot bet increasing as well which means some correction in the market is reasonably expected but why does it matter today let's take a look at S&P 500 index since the last housing bubble which happened in 2008 we have seen enormous growth in the stock market at the top of 2007 before the stock market crashed one share of S&P 500 was trading around $1,500 now it's more than $3,200 that's more than 100 percent increase but the second look what happened in earnings if I look at this chart at the top of the peak in 2007 earnings were around $85 a share but now current earnings are close to 130 dollars a share that's only 50 percent increase since 2007 while the stock market rose by 100 percent during the same time frame that's a huge difference we already know that Warren Buffett does not really get involved into macroeconomics his main investment philosophy is invest in great businesses the ones that help great economic mode competitive advantage understandable and the most importantly the ones that trade at the reasonable market price here year tell us something else we do not know well here's what I have to say we should pay attention to what Warren Buffett does at not necessarily what he says publicly his cash position speaks for itself his cash is currently a great indicator when stock market is cheap and when it's expensive let's take a quick look at 2018 Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting when a shareholder put Warren Buffett on the spot and asked why he does not put the cash into use and of not trying to shine the market but by you're having Berkshire holds such a large amount of cash and t-bills it seems to me you don't practice what you preach I'm thinking that a good alternative would be for you to invest most of Berkshires excess cash in a well diversified index fund until you find an attractive acquisition or buy back stock that you've done that over the past 15 years all the time keeping the twenty billion dollar cash cushion you want I estimate that at the end of 2018 the company is one hundred and twelve billion balance in cash cash equivalents and short-term investments in t-bills would have instead been worth about a hundred and 55 billion the difference between the two figures is an opportunity costs equal to more than 12% of Berkshire's current Book value what is your response to what I say and for I forgot to say the question is from Mike elder who is with the colony group located in Boca Raton and Florida that's a perfectly decent question and I wouldn't quarrel with the numbers and I would say that that that is an alternative for example that my successor may wish to employ because on balance I would rather own an index fund and then then carry Treasury bills I would I would say that if we'd instituted that policy in two thousand seven or eight we might have been in a different position in terms of our ability to move late in 2008 or 2009 so it has certain it has certain execution problems with hundreds of billions of dollars than it does if you were having a similar policy with a billion or two billion or something sorry but it's a perfectly it's perfectly rational observation and certainly looking back on ten years of a bull marker that it it really jumps out at you but I would argue that that if you were working smaller numbers that it would make a lot of sense and if they're working with large numbers it's it might well make sense at the future at Berkshire doesn't operate that way you know we committed 10 billion a week ago and there are conditions under which and they're not they're not remote they're not likely in any given week or a month or a year but but there are conditions under which we could spend a hundred billion dollars very very quickly and if we did if those conditions existed it would be the capital very well deployed and much better than next fund and so we've been we're operating on the basis that we will get chances to deploy capital they will come in clumps in all likelihood and they will come when other people don't want allocate capital Charlie what do you think about it well I plead guilty to being a little more conservative with the cash than other people and but I think that's alright we could have put all the money into a lot of securities that were a ton better than the S&P the 20/20 hindsight remember we had all that extra cash all what period if something come along in the way of opportunities and so on I don't think it's a sin that'd be a little strong on cash when you're as big a company as we are we don't have to I watched Harvard use the last ounce of their cash including all our prepaid tuition from the parents and plunge it into the market at exactly the wrong moment and make a lot of forward commitments to private equity and they suffered like two or three years of absolute agony we don't suffer be like Harvard cause timber and a whole bunch of them I mean first timber and I mean yeah yeah we're not gonna change we we we do like having a lot of money to be able to operate very fast and very big again yes we don't and maybe we won't we know we won't get those opportunities frequently I don't think it's certainly you know in the next you know in the next 20 or 30 years they'll be in two or three times when it'll be raining gold and all you have to do outside but we don't know when they will happen and and we have a lot of money to commit and I would say that if you told me I had to either carry short-term Treasury bills or have index funds and just let that money be invested in American generally I would take the index funds but we still have holes and the one thing you should very definitely understand about Berkshire is that we run the business in a way that we think is consistent with serving shareholders who had virtually all of their net worth in Berkshire I happen to be in that position myself but I would do it that way under any circumstances we have a lot of people who trust us who really have disproportionate amounts a Berkshire compared to their net worth if you were to follow standard investment procedures and and we want to make money for everybody but we want to make very very sure that we don't lose permanently money from any but for anybody that buys our stock somewhere around intrinsic business value to begin with we we just have enough we have an aversion to having a million plus shareholders maybe as many as two million and having a lot of them ever really lose money if they're willing to stay with us for a while and we know how people will behave if when when the world generally is is upset and they want to be with something I think they want to be with something that they feel it was like the rocket Gibraltar and we have a we have a desperate we have a real good position toward that group the current market cap of Berkshire Hathaway is close to 550 billion dollars in the solo cash at cash equivalent is over 128 billion dollars actually one-quarter of the entire market cap in in pure cash does this mean that one in Buffett does not know what to do with all that money well pretty much he cannot find great businesses and reasonable prices which means stock market is quite expensive yes yes he could easily invest all that remaining cash into sp500 but know the position is way too large it is better to stay liquid in a wait until it will rain gold outside and then you can pick up 50 cents on a dollar if you look at this chart his cash position skyrocketed since 2008 in 2000 and in 2008 his cash position was very small meaning he could easily find great companies at great prices and put the capital to use in 2007 before the market crash his cash position piled up and since then it tripled even though Warren Buffett perfectly understands that cash itself is lousy investment considering the inflation rate we probably lose 3 to 4 percent of our purchasing power every year but he bets on the market correction when the time will come his cash will be utilized to outperform all the inflation that was even his cash year of the year not just Warren Buffett is betting on a stock market decline another reputable intrapreneur and an investor featured in Forbes 30 under 30 magazine Christopher Alberta also believes that Buller cycles and soon and he stated the market has to correct eventually it seems like we are getting really close the quantitative easing program from the central banks have delayed a crash and the outcome of the next American president election in 2020 will be indicated in what direction the economy is heading but it won't change the historical trend of the economic cycle my prediction is that in 2021 we will see a major correction I will help to agree with Greece that the correction is not a question of if it's a question of when it is very likely that it will come somewhere in between 2020 and 2021 I would definitely recommend to follow Chris on Instagram at startup underscore Chris now let's take a look at PE ratio of S&P 500 to determine if stocks are indeed expensive or cheap current p/e ratio is almost once a four in 2000 dot-com bubble the Eurasia was over 35 in 2007 housing bubble the Eurasian skyrocketed all the way over 60 however those were very unique cases that we have never seen before in 1929 a great depression p/e ratio was only at 23 similar to today I think the good rule of thumb is if p/e ratio is below 15 it's a great indication that stock market is cheap and if it's about fancy it means that stocks are expensive let me know what the guys think about all Warren Buffett's cash and his potential prediction about stock market correcti
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