저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 영상은 레이 달리오의 15억 달러 풋옵션 베팅을 근거로 증시 하락과 경기침체를 경고하며, 금리 인하 시점과 과거 사례를 근거로 2020년 3월 무렵 시장 하락을 예상한다. 달리오 베팅 관련 주장: 2019년 11월 월스트리트저널 보도를 인용해 브리지워터가 풋옵션으로 약 15억 달러를 걸고 2020년 3월까지 글로벌 증시 하락에 베팅했다고 설명한다. 다만 해당 베팅은 포트폴리오 일부의 헤지 성격일 수 있다는 평가도 함께 소개한다. 헤지펀드·경기 관련 주장: 헤지펀드 거물들이 시장에서 빠져나가고 있다는 점을 강조하고, 기업·소비자 부채가 사상 최고 수준이며 기업 부채의 약 40%가 경기 둔화 시 디폴트 위험에 있다고 주장한다. 전문가 코멘트: 마이크 산톨리 등은 해당 보도가 맥락이 부족하며, 3월 슈퍼화요일 전후 선거 관련 헤지 수요가 몰려 있다는 해석을 내놓는다. 금리·경기침체 논리: 연준 금리 인하 이후 경기침체가 시작되지만 대중은 약 7개월 뒤에야 인지한다는 과거 패턴(닷컴버블, 2008년 금융위기)을 근거로 현재도 이미 침체 초입이라고 본다. 2019년 6월 금리 고점 이후 인하가 이어지면 2020년 3월경 주가가 크게 낮을 것이라는 전제다. 과거 주가 사례: 닷컴버블 당시 금리 인하 후에도 S&P500이 약 50% 하락했고, 2008년에도 금리 인하 이후 S&P500이 추가 하락했다고 정리한다. 광고·기타: 영상 중간 베팅 사이트 광고와 가상 베팅 예시가 포함되어 있으며 투자 판단과 직접 관련은 없다. 조건·리스크: 예측의 전제는 금리 인하 지속과 경기침체 확인 시점이며, 발표 시점 이후 시장 흐름과 달리 실제 결과는 검증되지 않았다. 출연자 전망: 진행자는 달리오 베팅이 경기 침체 신호일 수 있다고 보며 2020년 3월 하락을 예상한다.
다듬은 글
and that's something that Ray Dahlia has been saying he as you said the market has gone crazy was something he was quoted saying and just today he has placed 1.5 billion dollars in bets input options hey what is up guys ray Dahlia bats 1.5 billion dollars the stock market is going to fall in this video I will try to answer why rate Dahlia is buying put options that will expire in March once it's one see and I will expose a secret that fat does not want you to know and what you need to protect yourself money goes up money goes down right but usually the big guys that really I mean the really big guys they hardly feel it well guess what there's news today that some of them well they're feeling it I want to take you through some numbers to show you what I mean the average earnings for everybody who drew a salary in America in 1979 was 46,000 dollars right see it right there well the average earnings for everybody who drew a salary almost 40 years later 2018 now the year 2018 forty eight thousand dollars two thousand dollar increase over 40 years that's pretty sad right especially when you consider that the economy in the United States has tripled in size so who do you think is really walking away with a disproportionate amount of the proceeds from that economy the investor class and none more than the really really big guys the guys who control hedge funds for example hedge funds have been burning it up since the 1990s without fail hardly a bump on the road even during the meltdown but now we're hearing and we're seeing what may be the fall of the Titans here's the news hedge funds are getting out of the market that's right some of the biggest in the entire world are slowing down or even shutting down and saying there's there's something about this economy that just isn't right we're gonna begin with news about what some call an impending economic slowdown recession or worse time though the news is not about numbers it's about names I'm gonna give you some of them ready Jeffery Vinick John Paulson Leon Cooperman Ray Dalio Lewis bacon they're not presidents they're not famous politicians they're not sports figures they're not celebrities but they're probably more powerful than all of those they own some of the biggest hedge funds in the entire world and they are signaling on this day that there's just something not right about the investment climate that's going on around the world boom bozos Christie I has been following this trend for us she comes from the world with experience on Wall Street and specifically with hedge funds and she's good enough to share some of her wisdom with us so Christie what are these guys collectively saying to us absolutely we have consumer debt level at all-time highs and we have corporate debt at all-time high 40% of those corporate debt are actually in at risk of default if there is a significant slowdown in the economy and that's something that Ray Dahlia has been saying he as you said the market has gone crazy was something he was quoted saying right and just today he has placed 1.5 billion dollars in bets input options with the notion of a hundred billion dollars what does that mean saying that he's against the market against the market that by March of next year if the market goes down he'll make money he's betting against the market saying that we are at risk of a major fallout I guess this is no longer a big secret that economic slowdown is upon us Ray Dalio made the decent profit in 2008 housing bubble and global financial crisis 11 years later after the longest economic growth in the history Ray Dalio is betting once again that market will suffer recently he purchased 1.5 billion dollars worth of put options which will expire in March 22 1 see but the question is why is he doing that let's take a look with those in BC financial analysts and reporters helped to say why Ray Dalio is betting against the market then I will explain like I believe he's betting against the market this morning the Wall Street Journal reports that Ray Dalio his hedge fund Bridgewater is using put options to bet more than a billion dollars that global markets will fall by March sources tell the journals Bridgewater bearish bet is currently one of the largest against the markets in that it'll pay off if the S&P 500 the euro stocks 50 or both see it see a decline join us now how to talk more about the markets throughout setting managing partner at Douglas C Lane & Associates and a CNBC contributor and CNBC senior markets commentator Mike Santoli I was reminded of a couple of things Mike and that was Soros is bearish bets over the years with S&P puts it never worked out he lost on every one of them and then another guy who who loved the deal inputs named Buffett who didn't buy puts yeah he sold billions of dollars worth her puts and made standard so much to his return based on that just when you sell puts you're just betting that the markets gonna continue to rise so we seem to you know say how high every time Dahle is on the way up every time Dalio makes a move I don't know I don't know what them I mean the first thing to say is that the report kind of lacks context you don't know where this position fits within the constellation of all the other things that the firm is doing it's not a bet the firm trade on the market going down and out right way so I think that you have to have to point it but I do think it reflects some sort of general activity among big institutions saying put your cheap right now we might as well lock some in it's been a big up year and there is actually if you look at some if you can look at sort of the slope of of hedging activity going out several months there is this welling up of concern that's concentrated around early March which is Super Tuesday which is when somehow people think that's when election outcomes are going to be relevant for the market well they believe it's not a big deal dalia uses a small portion of his portfolio to bet against the market basically his hedging against his own portfolio however I dig much deeper than that and I want you to see this let's take a look at this chart that represents effective federal fund rates these gray bars are indicators that represents recession they are lagging indicators by definition it requires two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth to see a recession which means GDP does not necessarily have to go down but what it has to happen is to have a suppressed growth rate of GDP if in so consecutive quarter's GDP growth will be slower than it projected that it might be good indicator that we are in the recession after that fed he has to compile all that data which takes at least six month and up to a year to do so therefore we do not find out that we are in the recession until after that time this video is brought you by Batman IO Batman is a betting website that is based on private blockchain which was essentially created only theory of ear seeds once it's open it 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