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hey everyone welcome back to the channel my name is cj and today i want to go over some of the super investors that i follow and the changes that they made to their portfolio in the fourth quarter of 2020. today i'm going to cover some of the changes in four different portfolios and those investors are lilu guy spear michael bury and david tepper i would normally add monash pirate to this list but he didn't make any changes for the fourth quarter i tend to follow these super investors pretty closely because they all run concentrated portfolios and i'm really only interested in looking at portfolios where the managers have very high conviction which is about a 10 bet or more of their portfolio i plan on doing these every quarter so if you want to keep up to date please subscribe to the channel there will be timestamps in the description below for the four portfolios that i'll cover in this video so go check those out if you want to skip to a specific one and this is an investment advice frankly a lot of these changes i am learning myself with all that said let's get started did you know that value investors get four extra holidays every year these holidays are better than christmas thanksgiving and the 4th of july all combined big funds have to file a 13f form with the sec where they disclose all of their positions that they've acquired within the past fiscal quarter i track most of this information i use the website data roma where it lists all of the major super investor portfolios so here we see we have warren buffett howard marks bill miller lee liu michael bury etc etc also keep in mind that data roma only reports u.s held positions so a lot of these investors do actually hold positions in foreign countries like japan or china or turkey and these will not be listed or represented on data roma for instance michael bury has positions in japan and korea that aren't reported on data roma or to the sec so his overall portfolio is bigger and that should slightly decrease the total percentages of these positions compared to his total pool of assets okay let's start with lilu first off we can see that his micron position has not changed nor has his bank of america interesting he has reduced his facebook position by about 30 percent monash provides says that there's one reason why an investor would buy a stock but there are millions of reasons why they might sell so this is a 30 reduction in his facebook holdings as we can see it's still about 15 of his u.s portfolio so i wouldn't say that he's losing faith in facebook as a business i think it's more along the lines of he wants to make room for new positions in his portfolio google's unchanged and here we get to the interesting part so we have a five and a half percent stake in his u.s portfolio for apple and then a three and a half percent stake in pin do a duo i put this spreadsheet together to kind of track the changes for these portfolios that i'm tracking right now and for me the most important part is the percent change in price so we can see that for facebook he sold it off but for apple and pinduvaduo i like to track the lowest price that they could have bought it i kind of just assumed that these great investors were able to buy it at the lowest price that it was available during the quarter so here i have listed for apple at about 109 and then pindo do at about 72.
understanding the lowest price during the quarter kind of gives us a reference for the minimum threshold for what these super investors might be willing to pay for these companies so for instance if lilu did buy pinduoduo at 72 per share and then we see that the last day of the quarter it was selling for almost 180 he has already made about 150 percent return on that investment now again we can't read lilu's mind but we can probably assume based on his past track record that he is not holding pin to a duo for a quick turnaround and just to buy it up and sell it just next quarter so it looks like lee liu found it interesting at somewhere between 72 dollars per share and about 180 per share i'm guessing you probably bought it at the lower end of that but if you're looking for sort of an acceptable price range based on what the super investors are doing this is kind of one method to look at it some interesting things about these portfolio changes is that lilu bought into apple which is the company with the largest market cap in the world i find it really interesting because he's buying a new position when apple is hitting all-time highs so i'd be really curious to figure out what he thinks is going to happen to the stock does he think it can possibly double again from here it's already valued over 2 trillion dollars but i am not trying to second guess lee liu here i'm quite impressed that he still thinks that there's a lot of value enough value to put five percent of his portfolio into it next up is pinduo duo which i haven't done a ton of research about this company but it's a chinese e-commerce platform and they cater more to the lower end of the market and they have a lot of concentration in more rural and sparse cities it was interesting a few quarters ago lilu sold all of his stake in alibaba and now he's making another small investment in an up-and-coming e-commerce competitor pin duodo is supposedly taking a lot of market share from alibaba at that lower end of the market so pindo duo is going straight to the top of my list of stocks to research next even though lilu has captured a double already there's potential that there's a lot of upside left okay next let's move on to guy spears portfolio he runs a pretty concentrated book as well and he didn't actually have many changes for this quarter but i did want to cover his one change which was he added to his position in micron technology micron is a producer of memory and data storage solutions most notably their dram so guy spear initially made about a two percent ish bet on micron technologies but we've seen monish pibrai and lilu both have a huge portion of their portfolios dedicated to micron so it looks like guy spear did some more due diligence did his research probably talk to monish a lot more about micron and ended up pulling the trigger because he added about 67 percent to his previous position so the quarter low was about 47 and the last day price was 75 so he's already captured about a 62 upside i'm guessing though that like pabrai and likely lou he's planning on holding this for a long time but if you're thinking about getting on board with micron these are a few statistics that might help you think about price ranges because guy spear obviously thought it was acceptable to buy in at somewhere between 47 and 75.
again i'm guessing he bought in on the lower end but now the position makes up almost 15 percent of his portfolio which is a really high conviction bet okay that's all for guy spear but that gives some hope for micron okay next up we have the big short himself michael bury berry made a ton of changes to his portfolio this quarter but i'm going to go over just a few of the big ones that i noticed as you can see he made nine new buys and if we go to his sell tab then we can see that he sold another 10 positions completely so he was busy last quarter so first up is his largest position which is lumen technologies it makes up about eight percent of his total u.s portfolio and lumen is actually centurylink which is a telecoms communication they just changed their name at the end of last year to lumen so he added 44 to his largest position which gives us a taste for how much of conviction he feels for this company i don't know anything about it to be honest i'm sure if we dig into the balance sheet we would find an opportunity that buries ease next up in his portfolio we have a new position called distribution now this makes up almost eight percent of his portfolio now i know nothing about distribution now other than a few minutes of research on it but according to morningstar they provide downstream energy and industrial products for petroleum refining chemical processing lng terminals power generation utilities industrial manufacturing operations etc so the first thing i do when i see a new position that i've never seen before is i go immediately to morningstar and check out their balance sheet so if we look at their balance sheet for the third quarter of 2020 you can see that they have about 330 million dollars in cash and their debt number is about .05 billion dollars so if you subtract the net debt from their total cash they still have 270 million dollars on the balance sheet with no obligation to anybody else this is a really good sign and an important factor when deciding if they have a healthy balance sheet or not most companies do not have enough cash on hand to cover their debt and this company has an excess of cash right now we can kind of go from there to start to analyze if we think this company is still undervalued or if bury might have already sold by now so as of today we can see that the market cap for the company is about 1.2 billion dollars so if we subtract their net cash after debt that's about 900 to 950 million dollar market cap minus cash so just based on the cash on the balance sheet alone we're getting a four and a half multiple so once we understand this we can kind of evaluate the rest of the business so at first glance this stock does seem to be pretty undervalued because it has a healthy balance sheet a lot of cash and it has an operating business that has potential to be making money in a cyclical industry that seems to be on another upswing but this isn't going to be a full analysis is this company that's just my cursory thoughts you really need to dive into the 10ks and do some extra research to figure out if this company still has a lot more value to offer for you and i can't say whether or not it's too late and if you missed the value on this one but we'll just have to wait and see okay then some of the few key sales that berry made was number one gamestop so we know that he sold his entire position before the giant run up to what was it 400 or 500 per share it seems like he still made about a 4x on his bet in about i don't know a year and a half so he did pretty well for himself he did however miss the peak but you can't blame a man it's 4x that's an outstanding return anyway he even admitted that what was going on with gamestop with the short squeeze or gamma squeeze was unnatural so i don't think he was too sad about missing out on that upside next this one surprised me facebook he sold 100 of it it went from being one of the largest positions in his portfolio to zero percent now like i said earlier there could be a million reasons why someone would sell a stock but in bury's twitter profile he has hashtag boycott facebook so i don't think that he thinks too highly of the company just from a moral standpoint he may be voting with his portfolio by not investing in facebook even if he does think that the business itself is going to grow a lot in the future because clearly he made a large bet on it before it's possible that his conviction has changed his outlook on the business has changed but it also could be due to something else i really don't know this is all pure speculation let me know if you have any other thoughts about what could possibly be motivating bury to sell his facebook stake okay finally let's go over david tepper's portfolio changes state aroma shows that he has 45 positions but if we look at the concentration within the top five or so we can see that he actually has made a lot of high conviction bets now the ones in particular i want to cover are amazon micron and facebook so what surprised me the most about tepper's portfolio changes were his changes to amazon so he added almost 40 percent to his current stake in amazon bumping that up to about a nine and a half percent concentration in his portfolio this kind of blows my mind it's a little bit like lilu's investment in apple amazon is one of the largest companies in the world and tepper still thinks that there's a lot of value to be captured within the company now amazon is obviously huge and complicated and has a ton of different businesses within it and this investment was made before jeff bezos announced that he was stepping down as ceo i don't know if one of the greatest businessmen of all time stepping down a ceo is going to change tepper's view of amazon but that one we'll just have to see this is one of those spawner companies that monash barai has talked about and hopefully the genetic dna of amazon will keep it going and growing for a long time in the future even if bezos isn't at the helm next up tepper sold off about 35 of his steak in micron now i believe that tepper was the person who initially introduced monis probably to micron and i'm really surprised he's selling off this much we're on one hand we have guy spear who's adding 66 percent to his steak and tepper is selling 35 and in the middle we have pubrae and lee liu who are both holding steady with their huge positions in micron micron still makes up nine percent of his portfolio so maybe he just doesn't like positions to get too large he's already captured a lot of value with micron so we'll see if this is a mistake or you know if he's just trying to rebalance a little bit and finally we see tepper adding about 14 to his facebook position so i wanted to cover this because it's in contrast to lee liu and michael bury both selling off a little bit of facebook it's just to point out that just because one investor is selling a position doesn't mean that it's not a good position to hold a bunch of different value investors within the community think really highly of certain stocks while others think that they're terrible investments that's a pretty common dynamic so don't take one person's portfolio change as gospel that about rounds up my summary for the q4 changes in some of the super investors portfolios that i follow of course this wasn't a comprehensive view of every single stock change in every single investor's portfolio but i have selected some of the more interesting ones to me so please go to dataroma.com if you want to check out any other investors on your own i'd highly recommend it since you made it this far you may be interested in my curated investing playlist over here where i cover a bunch of topics in value investing if you like this video please subscribe to the channel it would help me a lot and let me know to keep making videos like this in the future let me know in the comments below if you have any questions or comments about any companies or portfolio positions or investors that i did or didn't cover in this video thank you for watching everybody and i will see you next time
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