저자: BillMiller—영상진행자CJWilson은진행자이므로제외 · 외국인
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빌 밀러의 인터뷰와 Q1 2021 시장 서한을 소개한 영상. 결론: 밀러는 아마존 비중을 유지하며 2~3년 내 두 배 상승을 기대하고, 비트코인과 GM에도 긍정적이며, 시장 전반의 큰 폭 상승(유포리아 근접)을 더 걱정한다. [인물 배경] 밀러는 레그메이슨 펀드를 15년간 운용해 15년 연속 S&P500을 상회했으나 2008~2009년 AIG·베어스턴스 베팅 실패로 펀드 약 50% 손실, 운용자산 770억→200억 달러로 감소. 이후 Miller Value Partners를 운용하며 2020년 3월 저점 이후 2021년 3월 말까지 펀드 약 200% 수익, S&P 약 80% 대비 우위라고 소개. [비트코인] 밀러는 200~300달러 부근에서 매수, 평균단가 약 500달러, 당시 5~6만 달러 부근. 근거: 탈중앙·검열저항, 공급 상한 2100만 개(약 1850만 개 채굴 완료), 연간 공급 증가율 약 2%이므로 수요 증가율이 이를 넘는지가 핵심, 모건스탠리·골드만삭스 등 기관 접근성 확대, 테슬라 등 기업의 현금 대체 보유, 금 대비 자본 이동성 장점. 비트코인은 개인 포트폴리오 2위 보유 자산. [아마존 AMZN] 개인 포트폴리오 1위(약 83% 집중), 저점 부근 콜옵션 매수로 진입. 2~3년 내 두 배 상승 전망, 현재 가격은 주가매출·EV/EBITDA 등 지표상 역사적 평균 수준이라 비싸지 않다고 주장. 2020년 매출 두 배. AWS 단독 시 약 5,000억 달러, 현재 AWS 자체로 2~3년 내 약 1조 달러, 광고 사업 약 5,000억 달러 가치 주장. 신규 물류(풀필먼트) 사업 가치 미반영. 신규 투자자라면 순자산의 20~30%를 배분할 것이라 언급. 반독점 규제로 분할될 경우 주주에 유리할 것이라는 시각. [GM] 저평가 종목으로 제시. 전기차 전환이 진행 중이나 PER 약 8배(시장 평균 약 20배)로 최소 50~100% 상승 여력. 전기차 경쟁 심화는 테슬라에 대한 약세 논거. [시장 전망] 밀러는 금리 상승·SPAC·IPO 공급·인플레이션·연준 긴축을 주요 우려로 보지 않으며, 가장 큰 우려는 시장이 강세론자의 예상보다 훨씬 더 오르면서 대부분 종목이 매력을 잃는 것(1999년 닷컴 버블 재현 가능성). 템플턴 인용: 강세장은 비관 속에 태어나 회의 속에 자라고 낙관 속에 성숙해 도취 속에 사라진다. 현재 시장은 대체로 낙관 단계, 일부 도취 구간(테슬라 등) 존재로 판단.
다듬은 글
bill miller has been really busy this month he has released his quarter 1 2021 market letter to investors and he's also been interviewed for a baron's article by william greene who recently released a book called richer wiser happier which all of you should definitely check out that book in these pieces bill miller gives his views on the markets his views on a couple specific companies such as amazon and gm and he even touches on bitcoin he even talks about how he became a billionaire and as a value investor it's probably not how you think so let's dive into it william green gave an excellent introduction to bill miller at the beginning of his baron's article bill miller has had i'll say a checkered yet successful history as an investor he ran the fund for leg mason for 15 years and he beat the s p each one of those years but he made some misguided and contrarian bets in aig and bear stearns in the 2008 and 2009 financial crisis that ended up having his fund lose about 50 percent of its value he went from running 77 billion dollars to 20 billion dollars but bill miller kept at it and he needless to say has made a great comeback he now runs his own fund miller value partners and he's managing a little bit less than three billion dollars according to data roma and as a data point the author offers that miller value trust has returned about 200 percent whereas the s p has only returned about 80 percent from the trough of the coveted crisis in march of 2020 till the end of march in 2021.
now that's a little bit about bill miller let's get into what he was actually discussing in the articles one of the most astounding parts of this barons interview was the revelation that bill miller is a huge hodler of bitcoin bill miller said that he started buying bitcoin at about 200 to 300 dollars per coin and that his average cost basis is about 500 per coin and now bitcoin is fluctuating somewhere between fifty thousand and sixty thousand dollars per coin now obviously those numbers are mind-blowing i'll let you do the math on those returns bill miller does discuss his rationale for owning bitcoin basically he says that bitcoin is a decentralized permissionless peer-to-peer network of computers that's permanent and unhackable but it seems like the crux of his argument for owning bitcoin is that it's actually a scarce resource now they're only going to be 21 million bitcoin and about 18 and a half million of them have already been mined the supply of bitcoin grew two and a half percent last year and it's gonna grow another two percent this year and the question he asks us is is the demand for bitcoin rising at higher than two percent he also gave this interesting analogy that there are 47 million millionaires in the world and if each of them wanted to own a bitcoin they really couldn't because there are only ever going to be 21 million bitcoin in existence another factor is that major banks like morgan stanley and goldman sachs are going to be making bitcoin available to their clients so there's going to be institutional adoption of bitcoin and also we've seen companies like tesla for instance buy bitcoin as a replacement for the cash on their balance sheet he also does mention that bitcoin seems to be a good alternative to gold especially for the practical fact that you can't really flee a country with you know luggage full of gold but you can digitally transfer your wealth through bitcoin and preserve your wealth that way all in all he echoes a lot of the bitcoin proponents like anthony pompliano who uh say that bitcoin could someday be worth 10 trillion dollars as a total market cap now i don't know if talking about bitcoin in terms of market cap versus gold's market cap is the appropriate way to analogize these these two assets but these are some parts of his rationale that he's using to own bitcoin and i'm not here to argue the merits of bill miller's decision to buy bitcoin or to argue the rationale behind his decision um i'm not trying to say that it's hindsight bias or anything of that nature because obviously he's the one sitting there who's made hundreds of millions of dollars likely from his bitcoin position so i'm not going to judge him his investment has paid off i mean the point of laying out money now is to make a lot of money in the future and that's what he's done and successfully the bitcoin investment is the second largest holding in his personal portfolio now the first largest holding is actually amazon i did mention earlier in the video that bill miller made some pretty big mistakes during the financial crisis in 2008 but one of his greatest well i'll call it his greatest investment was making a huge bet on amazon at the bottom tick miller says that this amazon bet has grown to 83 of his personal portfolio now that's getting to monash provide levels of concentration basically bill miller bought a bunch of call options as amazon was plummeting in price and well we can see today where that company is so he's obviously had some success with this investment and he says that the combination of his amazon investment and his bitcoin investment have made him comfortably a billionaire he even says that he owns the most amazon stock by somebody whose last name isn't bezos despite amazon being a huge percentage of his portfolio he says that he's not selling he thinks in two or three years amazon is going to be a double in fact he even says that amazon isn't expensive which as a value investor might raise some eyebrows he says it's trading right in the middle of its historical average based on a few metrics such as price to gross profits and enterprise value to ebitda and he says because of the coveted crisis and the digital acceleration of the world in 2020 amazon's revenues doubled he also thinks about amazon and some of the parts way he says that if aws were its own publicly listed company that it would be worth probably around 500 billion dollars and amazon's market cap right now is about 1.6 trillion in addition to that he says that in a few years aws alone is probably going to be worth a trillion dollars and then its advertising business might be worth another 500 billion dollars so basically we're getting all the retail operations today for free based on those assumptions and of course amazon has a bunch of other bets and irons in the fire that could potentially impact the share price dramatically in the future he also mentioned amazon's budding fulfillment business where they're basically going to build a huge fleet of vans and planes for delivery and then even sell the excess capacity that they have to other people who need that sort of service so he says that that business isn't even really priced into the market cap at this point i'm not an expert on amazon by any means bill miller very well may be correct so if he believes that it's going to be a double and he's still holding then maybe it's worth taking a deep dive into amazon i know it's a huge business but you know if if he sees a pretty safe double then you know it's probably worth it oh and one thing to mention a practical tip for investors is that he said that if you were buying amazon for the first time today he would put 20 to 30 percent of his net worth into it which completely astounded me i mean if you believe that amazon this dominant giant of a company is safely going to return a double within the next three years then it kind of makes sense if you think about it i mean amazon is super entrenched right now they're going to continue to grow in both cloud and their retail business and one thing to note is that just like facebook if antitrust laws come and try to break up amazon then it's very likely that we'll benefit a lot of shareholders because as he mentioned the individual pieces of amazon are worth a lot more separate than they currently are being valued as one giant corporation in amazon the interview asked him for one stock that he believes is undervalued right now and miller actually said gm or general motors it's really refreshing to just get a straight answer about an investment idea from a really prominent investor like bill miller basically his investment thesis for gm is that it's slowly becoming an electric vehicle-focused company as the combustible engine goes by the wayside but the valuation has not reflected that idea yet i haven't done the research on gm but he says that on some of the parts basis we can see easily at least a 50 or 100 percent upside for gm they're sitting at about an eight times earnings multiple in a market that's about 20 times in earnings multiple on average and this idea kind of extends to the entire auto industry every company is transitioning from gas-powered vehicles to electric vehicles now every company is investing in research and development or trying to form partnerships in order to increase their ev footprint it's actually a bear case for tesla because as these companies start to pump more and more money into their research tesla's product becomes less differentiated and we begin to see the old traits of the auto industry ringing their ugly head so as for right now he thinks gm might be a pretty good investment all right let's go over some of the lessons we can take from the q1 market letter to investors i'm going to read a couple passages from this because i think they're really impactful and something that we should definitely contemplate as investors he says my concern is not that the market is too expensive or that rising interest rates at the long end if they continue will put pressure on valuations or the new supply via spax and ipos will drain demand from the broader market or that the inflation will prompt the federal reserve to tighten sooner than the market anticipates my concern is that the market goes up far more than even ardent bulls expect making the vast majority of stocks unattractive even for those with much longer time horizons than the typical market participant so it looks like miller isn't worried that the market's gonna crash i mean of course he's obviously calculating that that is a reasonable possibility however his bigger concern is that we're going to see a repeat of say the tech bubble in 99 where valuations are just going to skyrocket and that kind of leaves us as investors in the dust i mean we're going to be looking for companies that are selling well below their intrinsic valuation but in an environment that he fears we are basically not going to be able to find an investment and therefore it's going to be really hard for us to make appropriate and adequate returns i appreciate that his natural bent seems to be towards optimism it reminds me of a bonus for by a lot he also quotes sir john templeton saying that bull markets are born in pessimism grow on skepticism mature on optimism and die in euphoria he believes that most of the market is actually in the optimism phase however he does see pockets of euphoria just like monash per buy and i'm guessing he's talking about companies like tesla for instance i'll leave links to the barons interview and this market letter in the video description below i would highly encourage you to read both of them in their entirety if you want to learn more about bill miller's view on the market let me know in the comments below if you read these articles and found any other really interesting insights that i didn't cover in this video if you liked this video you may enjoy my video over here where i talk about monash pro bride's new investing framework i really appreciate you sticking all the way to the end thank you so much for your time and thank you for watching and i will see you next time
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