저자: DanIves · 외국인
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Dan Ives는 테슬라를 AI 성장주로 보고 목표가 $275(강세 시나리오 $350)를 제시. 로보택시·FSD 성공 시 시가총액 1조 달러 가능성 주장. 영상 진행자는 기술적 바닥 패턴과 $180 지지 여부를 근거로 $200 재도달 가능성을 언급. Ark Invest는 2029년 목표가 $2,600을 제시하나 로보택시 출시 지연 시 $350로 하향 가능. 반대 근거로 마진 축소, 경쟁 심화, 높은 밸류에이션(PER 45배 이상)도 언급됨.
다듬은 글
musk is Tesla Tesla is musk and I think ultimately right now Tesla is the most undervalued AI play in the market I I believe the AI component of Tesla could be worth one to two trillion alone and this because that's to in my view this is really the beginning of what is going to be just a massive stage of growth for musk and Tesla August 8th in my opinion will be a historical day for Tesla what about Tesla today reiterated outperform by Super Bowl Dan Ives at wed Bush 275 is a price Target AI story he says that Tesla's quote the Lynch bin to1 trillion doll market cap tide shifting do you think the tide is Shifting yeah I I would never go against Dan Ives especially in a name like Tesla I I think the the peak negativity that that we saw around Tesla's earnings is not there anymore but I think it's settling out I think we're seeing nice technical bottoming pattern I wouldn't be surprised to see this above 200 in the very very near future I'm going to be trading this personally probably with some options down the road here in the near future but the AI story around it not I don't look at it just just a car company I think there's an AI story there's potential software story The the charging station story there's a lot of factors here that could power this thing over $200 in the very near term you would think to buy more you say yes yeah I'm I'm I'm not there yet just maybe some broad Market concerns but maybe by the end of the month or around you know the 4th of July time all right wedbush Securities Dan IES recently said that Tesla stock is the most undervalued AI play in in the entire market and that the company's AI offerings like Robo taxis and FSD will be crucial in helping the EV maker reach a market cap of more than $1 trillion by 2025 as of the time of this video Tesla's market cap is around $573 billion so IES is saying that Tesla will pretty much double his price Target on the stock is $275 implying an upside of 50% from current trading levels and he even has a bull case price PR Target which is $350 but he admits that this figure is built around the success of FSD and autonomy which could open the floodgates to higher stock prices so in today's video we're going to talk about Dan ives's most recent note on Tesla and whether investors should follow his suit and load up on Tesla shares before it reaches a$1 trillion market cap again um so you have apple you have Tesla those are are both in the Magnificent 7 you also have Oracle and Adobe um as your name so a lot of tech type of stocks in that group tell me a little bit about which ones do you think have the best potential for an upside move I think the best potential probably is Tesla because it's been trading down for so long and it's finally got the expected news that everybody thought that musk is GNA get the pay package he wanted and again they're they're full on in Texas now so I think it's good news for investors and good news for the stock because the stock has been basing out for what feels like forever and again I'm not saying they're going to get up back to the highs again anytime soon it's so far away from the last high that it which was several years ago and the Market's been so bullish but Tessa with the backdrop of a bullish Market has a long way to run and I think that's very very positive and and of course Apple Too Apple could get to 250 before you even know it I mean when you look at where we're going here into the holidays in a couple of weeks it's going to be July 4th and then boom we come back from July 4th and it's earning season and then all these companies are going to report and to think that they can't make 20 30% jumps even in the next 30 to 45 60 days of depending when their earnings are setting up they absolutely could remember Tesla has to report and I think that's in July same thing with Apple so I mean here we are we're almost at the end of June and these things could continue because of earnings not just because of the market in his new Tesla note Dan Ives wrote he expects that once Tesla officially gets through the final steps in the Twilight Zone Delaware legal spiderweb regarding Elon musk's recently approved pay package the company's board will have a new incentive-driven AI compens ation package for Elon which will get him to a 25% plus ownership of Tesla while keeping all AI initiatives under the hood of the company as for the company's near-term catalysts Dan Ives chose the robo taxi unveiling event saying that it'll be a historical moment for Tesla he wrote that Elon was very optimistic at the recent shareholder meeting around autonomous new models coming and it appears validation around elon's strategic Vision with FSD and Optimus is starting to take hold with some early positive signs he added that the key to reaching a$1 trillion plus valuation is the autonomous and FSD Vision taking hold for Tesla which appears to be turning a corner with the latest FSD version 12.4 and now China FSD testing underway reaffirming that Tesla is more of an AI and Robotics play than a traditional car company wedbush Securities said that it has seen some signs of stabilization in pricing for the company over the last few months with the bulk of the price Cuts now likely in the rear view mirror also demand in China is likely heating up with consumers recognizing there would be no major price reductions ahead still according to Dan IES competition from companies like byd Neo and others remain very fierce in China and for Tesla to see a global demand rebound this will not happen without China with all of this in mind should investors take ives's advice and buy more Tesla shares ahead of its near-term Catalyst the robo taxi event all right uh hard to fight the trend but let's talk about your first uh trade that we're watching Tesla under some pressure now after ticking a little bit higher earlier in the session tell us about it absolutely in the 180ish area which is where we're at right now and it is a little bit lower um that is so super important if it can maintain that and I know we just ticked right below it but if it can maintain that level in the near term that is a bullish bullish sign you know the the runup to the decision about Elon Musk pay package that's gone now so now the stock needs to trade not only on its technicals but it's fundamental so if it can hold this 180 level I really think Tesla has an opportunity to run back back to 200 and in a pretty short time frame uh you know could it could kind of be like a Nvidia and an apple that we've seen that move recently the stock needed a catalyst this could be it now as as you know Traders have to do I've got to talk about the other side of it also if it can't hold this 180 here boy it's right back to the 50-day moving average but I really think though this this again talking about Trend this has the potential to get back to that 200 level many analysts and investors think that there are a lot of reasons to be bearish on Tesla stock for example the company's margins are shrinking and competition is intensifying additionally not everyone agrees with Dan IES on the stock being undervalued as it trades at more than 45 times its trailing earnings but there are even more reasons to be optimistic too Tesla is a big name in the EV Market which could position it for Success amid the industry growth despite cheaper options out there the strong brand it has built up over the years could do for its higher priced Vehicles what Apple's brand has done for its premium priced phones which is to ensure that demand remains resilient even as competition increases there's also the potential for interest rates to come down within the next year under more favorable economic conditions consumer demand may strengthen leading to better results for Tesla Tesla's sales were down 9% for the first 3 months of 2024 totaling $21.3 billion and while profits plunged by 55% the company still posted a decent profit of $1.1 billion which was a good 5% of Revenue it won't be an easy path for Tesla by any means but with the stock down 30% this year investors who are interested in buying more Tesla shares amid the dip should definitely take this opportunity but this is just talking about Tesla 's car business without accounting for AI so let's get into why Tesla's AI prospects point to the fact that the stock is actually very undervalued close to 90% of the value of Tesla could be attributed to Robo taxis in 2029 um this will totally transform the business model from essentially oneoff vehicle sales with a little bit of software to uh a recurring Revenue stream and we think it'll have very attractive margins um so I you know autonomous cars will not only change how you and I get around they'll be so much safer um but they'll also be quite profitable to Tesla and very meaningful for shareholders so Tasha uh you know by 2029 $2,600 a share that's four years from now from where we are now I mean A lot's GNA have to uh happen right and I got to wonder just in terms of uh scaling and also uh manufacturing they had this uh new system that they I think tried to implement right which is more unibody fewer parts so faster cheaper Etc they've abandoned that apparently is that going to affect uh roll out of robot taxis I think that the roll out of Robo taxis is actually not dependent on the manufacturing of the Next Generation vehicle you know I do think that the Next Generation vehicle will be used for the robotaxi platform um but they can turn their current Fleet um Tesla's been saying this for a while that they can turn their current Fleet into Robo taxis as well um so you know they could take cars coming off of lease uh you know they removed the option to purchase for instance the model 3 off of lease for that reason I so I I think so that they can seed their robotex Network um so I I think that this this could be started in the next couple one to two years is our assumption um and uh you know we're we already see Robo taxis today uh from companies like uh like wh which is um Google's effort um but it's happening at a very small scale so I think that Tesla could be the first player um to really bring this technology to scale according to Arc invest Tesla will launch its Robo taxi service within the next 2 years but if it ends end up shelving this plan then the investment's firm price Target on the stock will be $350 significantly lower than their 2029 price target of $2,600 in the firm's expected value case Tesla's vehicle production will increase 45% on an annual basis through 2029 after which it expects the company's ability to scale to depend on new Factory openings Arc explains that Robo taxis are likely to ease manufacturing scaling by simplifying vehic vehicle designs and by generating additional income from cash flow generative rides and assumes that a majority of Robo taxis will be sold to Fleet owners which would simplify Tesla's sales funnel finally Ark invest said that they expect Tesla's robotics business to have a minimal impact on its price Target but they still think that in the next decade Tesla is likely to lead the robot manufacturing segment as Optimus will begin completing useful Factory tasks by the end of 20 24 if Optimus can reduce labor hours by 10% it could save the company $3 billion in manufacturing costs in 2029 however the humanoid robots business could be a $24 trillion Market at scale providing Tesla with a generational opportunity to grow its Revenue at an accelerated Pace going forward so Tesla's massive opportunities with AI can't be denied though a lot of it depends on the company's upcoming Road taxi event in August if Tesla and Elon Musk manage to deliver on their promises then the stock will definitely see a strong Boost after the event which means that now is the best time to buy more Tesla shares if you're interested in the stock its
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