저자: TomLee · 외국인
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결론: 톰 리는 2021년 8월 말~9월 말까지 리스크온 '에브리싱 랠리'가 이어져 S&P500이 4,800까지 갈 수 있다고 주장하며, 연준 매파 전환이 10월 조정 리스크라고 봄. 주제 1: 에브리싱 랠리 근거 - 델타 변이 확산이 이번 주 정점을 찍을 것이라는 전망과 국채 10년물 금리 반전이 리스크온 전환의 신호라고 설명. - 경기민감주(중국·유럽 카지노, 항공)가 반등하는 흐름을 근거로 제시. - 톰 드마크 13 카운트 셋업(목요일 출현, 4거래일 내 하락 실패 시 추세 재개)이 S&P500 약 7~8% 상승(3개월 기준) 가능성을 시사한다고 주장. 주제 2: 연준 및 금리 리스크 - 잭슨홀에서 테이퍼링 신호가 나오고 9월 FOMC에서 실제 발표되면 매파적 서프라이즈로 보고, 이 경우 10월 조정 가능성을 인정. - 10년물 금리가 현재 약 1.35% 수준이며, 금리 상승이 리스크 자산에 제약이 될 수 있다는 점을 인정하나 명확한 임계치는 제시하지 않음. 주제 3: 기술주 및 종목 전망 - 애플(연초 대비 약 2%), 아마존 등 FANG 종목이 시장 대비 뒤처져 있어 리스크온 자금이 몰릴 것이라 주장. - 애플·아마존은 연말까지 20% 상승 가능성을 언급하며 오버웨이트 근거로 제시. - S&P500은 연초 대비 약 18% 상승, 연말 25% 상승 가능성 언급. 주제 4: 리스크 및 조건 - 금리 상승이 특정 수준을 넘으면 DCF 분석에 따라 성장주에서 가치주로 로테이션 가능성 인정. - 델타 변이 예상 밖 전개와 연준 발언 변화가 주요 하방 리스크. 주제 5: 출연자 전망 - 투자자들이 조심스럽게 포지셔닝 중이며 8월 10% 조정을 기대했으나 리스크랠리 전환 시 상황이 바뀔 수 있다고 봄.
다듬은 글
again thanks scott good to be here sorry i'm not there in person or live that's okay uh we appreciate you joining us nonetheless i just mentioned esther george's comments that it's you know it's time getting time bostick yesterday others before that and you may get more in the days ahead the 10-year last monday eight nine days ago was 112.
it's at 1 35 right now is that a problem for your everything rally call uh that the fed could change everything so it is one of the conditions that can turn into a headwind um and i would say the everything rally there's a lot of pieces in place that really support a big move into the end of september but absolutely the fed uh if the fed does turn hawkish as a hockey surprise then the window in october is potentially some sort of pullback um but you know given uh the delta variance spread through emerging markets in asia i i would be surprised if anybody had confidence to say now what's the time to type let's be clear though so let's say let's for argument's sake or just for the sake of this conversation alone in and of itself the fed chair goes to jackson hole he starts to make it kind of obvious to people that the taper's coming and then at the september meeting which i think is the 21st and 22nd or 20th and 21st something right around there then they actually announced they're going to start tapering i don't know how far-fetched that is but let's for argument sake say that happens so that that ruins your call that has an impact scott i mean the the magnitude of it i think is unknown until we know how much of a hawkish surprise it is um but you know between now and september 21 i mean that's you know that's six weeks and given the rise in rates and infrastructure and the fact that the right risk assets are moving and i think even from a technical perspective you know the demark count really essentially is recycling today i i we have a pretty big risk on move underway and if the delta variant indeed is peaking this week which is what dr gottlieb and even the ihme has forecast there's going to be a real sigh relief and and i agree with joe and the others comments that investors are cautiously positioned i think people were looking for a 10 correction in august and if we have a risk rally there's a lot of changing that's going to take place yeah the other i mean the point you're making today is the key you say today is a key can you be more specific for our viewers as to why they need to watch today specifically as the start for your everything rally call yes uh so you know our original view was july august chop and then as as the week as the last week progressed you know with delta peaking and and the 10-year reversing and then the right groups rallying like china europe casinos airlines we were getting the sense that we should be moving towards risk on but today was important because uh jim cramer on cnbc had last week flagged the potential 13 cell setup in the s p you know it's a demark system and i'm a big fan of tom demark in the demarca analytics and the 13 appeared on thursday and if the market has to respond within four periods the day four is today wednesday so unless a sell-off starts today then it's likely a recycle 13 and that what that usually means is instead of a cell there's a larger trend underway you have to zoom out and this larger trend is actually a big risk rally this typical move is something like seven eight percent over three months so this is something that could push the s p towards 4 800 uh you know before october yeah but i think it's a big deal yeah you i mean you do admit yourself though there are there are a fair amount of risks to your own thesis and i think it's worth noting that for our viewers any number of things could happen be something unexpected with the delta variant uh or certainly the fed and you know i don't know what the baseline is at this point where it's moving but the speaking is definitely more hawkish the idea that tech can continue to go up even if rates continue to go up that doesn't worry you at all uh i i think there's going to be a break point scott where a level of race is going to cause consternation but you know in in our sort of central case tech has a big ketchup trade to make because you you look at amazon up 2 year-to-date apple up you know barely nine smp's up eighteen percent year-to-date and could be up twenty-five percent for the year i think a lot of risk on capital money that's been on the sidelines is going to go into fang uh that you know apple amazon could have a 20 move into year-end and that's big enough to make them an overweight so i think it's an everything rally that takes everything up but you're right it's nothing to guarantee there you know if we hit a certain level of rate i don't know what it is people are going to start to do the dcf analysis and say get me out of growth and that would turn into a rotation trade but right now i think it's a risk on everything rally tom i'm going to make that the last word i want to kick some more stuff around with my crew but i appreciate you joining me great thanks for having me we'll talk to you soon that's tom lee of fun strat so joe he's not the only one to think
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