저자: TomLee · 외국인
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결론: 비트코인은 채택 확대로 장기적으로 1,000만 달러까지 갈 수 있으며, 지금은 인생의 한 번뿐인 매수 기회라는 주장. 과거 투자 사례: 아마존 등 FANG 주식을 IPO 시점에 1,000달러 투자했다면 20년간 약 150만 달러가 되었고, 1980년대 월마트·홈디포 등 소비주도 주식도 수백~천배 수익을 냈다고 설명. 비트코인 논리: 지갑 수 기준으로 비트코인 사용자는 5,000만 명 수준이나 페이팔(2.27억)·비자/마스터카드(46억) 계정 대비 매우 작아 성장 여력이 크다고 주장. 2010년 대비 가격 상승률도 강조. 알트코인(에너지 코인, 후원 영상): 에너지 코인이 3.0 전환을 통해 이더리움 호환 스마트컨트랙트 플랫폼으로 발전할 것이라 홍보, 마스터노드 연 45~55% 수익을 언급. 인구통계 분석: 미국 주식 강세·약세는 세대별 인구 정점과 연동되며, 밀레니얼 세대가 2030년대 후반 금융소비를 주도한다고 봄. 밀레니얼은 은행을 불신하고 모바일 금융을 선호하므로 핀테크·크립토 수요가 커진다고 주장. 아시아 채택: 일본 남성 14%, 한국 성인 23%가 암호화폐를 보유한다는 수치를 제시하며 아시아가 기술 채택을 주도한다고 설명. 기관 자금 흐름: 비트코인이 200일 이동평균선 위에 있을 때 6개월 평균 수익률이 약 190%였고, 아래일 때는 약 18%라며 기관은 200일선 회복 후 진입할 것이라 봄. 현재는 조정 국면이지만 2~3년 장기 보유 관점에서는 매우 좋은 매수 시기라고 주장. 리스크/한계: 비트코인 상승의 대부분이 연간 최고 10일 수익에서 나온다는 점을 강조하며 단기 변동성과 타이밍의 중요성을 인정.
다듬은 글
just using Bitcoin as a proxy would mean Bitcoin could be worth over ten million dollars per Bitcoin in that 20 year period hey what's up guys bitcoin finally broke sentimental $10,000 price point but not for too long despite the short-term volatility it has a huge upside potential in this video a notorious Bitcoin bull Thomas Lee will explain how Bitcoin can reach up to ten million dollars per coin if you would invest $1,000 arounds won two years ago or at IPO price into Fang stocks now you would have over 1.5 million dollars well you may probably ask what is Fink Fink stands for Facebook Amazon Apple Netflix and Google alphabet the oldest company out of the bank is of course Apple which went public in 1980 and the youngest company in think is Facebook which went public just eight years ago in 2012 a number of different investors may argue that the Train is missed you cannot make 1000x on your money anywhere anymore this was one in a lifetime opportunity which will no longer exist well I can get into you one thing that you won't make 1,000 X return on your money in think because it's just probably too late thank overall it's just to make sure to continue to grow exponentially Facebook is the youngest one and it might have more juice left compared to other faint companies in this category but of course it won't be a 1000x another thing that investors are completely ignoring is that in 1880's the biggest consumers during those times were the main force behind those driver consumer stocks such as Walmart Home Depot and Hasbro at the beginning of 1980s those were the stocks that mimic the thing stocks into thousands if you would invest in Walmart at IPO price in 1980s but one share was around 12 cents 20 years later in 2000 the same one student was trading at around $60 that's a 500x return on your investment $1,000 invested EDI pio price turns into the staggering $500,000 20 years later well let's take a look at Home Depot which went public in 1981 one share was training at around three cents a share 20 years later in 2000 the same one she was at around $60 return on your investment is much better than Walmart that would be approximately 2000 X ROI initial $1000 investment would turn into two million dollars 20 years later those companies continue to perform well but the maturity reaches its peak well what is now where is the next potential opportunity for 1000x burger according to Thomas Li the potential 1000x return on investment is going to be in crypto the next generation of thanks talks it is crypto currency cryptocurrency is still in early stages we know that beef thing was created more than 10 years ago our entry halfway there well not really and here is why even though bitcoin was the best performing asset class for the past decade in 2010 only few people heard about Bitcoin and it was trading at around 6 cents a coin now 10 years later it close to $10,000 a coin it works the fence narks Walmart and Home Depot returned all together from 6th sent to $10,000 that's a 160 6666 time return on your investment $1,000 investment will turn into 166 million dollars I know practically it was almost impossible to buy $1,000 worth of Bitcoin in 2010 but theoretically the return speaks for itself well good for you you are very lucky individually if you are watching this because we are still in early stages and especially all coins aetherium as the second most valuable cryptocurrency at coin market Capcom was founded only five years ago there are less than 50 millions active blockchain wallets in the world well you may say that 50 Millions is a lot of users I would argue that those 50 Millions is not really users but just a number of wallets one person can have large number of wallets personally I have more than 10 wallets so the realistic number of users could be less than 10 millions but let's take a look at this there are over 300 million registered PayPal accounts and those are individual accounts one person cannot help 10 accounts there are 4.6 billion Visa and MasterCard accounts and they continue to grow you may argue that block jabal don't necessarily cause the cryptocurrency acid to rise and I would say that it could be true over the short period of time but if we look at this long term 10 years it's once a year's number of block chain wallets grow logarithmically just like bitcoins price for example in ten years we might see blockchain walls addresses in billions while big comprise can be in millions if a single Bitcoin won't reach millions of dollars per BTC I strongly believe that the entire cryptocurrency space will be a multi trillion dollars industry probably top 10 cryptocurrencies will be worth ninety five percent of the entire cryptocurrency market I would like to give a shout out to energy for supporting and sponsoring this video energy is about to soon set itself apart from the rest of cryptocurrencies space through the blockchain migration to become an energy 3.0 currently energy takes exactly 100 place at the coin market capcom with the total market capitalization of close to 50 million dollars and one coin trading is around two dollars a coin energy was originally a hard work from - with many upgrade features those features include a cell phone the Treasury this is energy allocation 40% of its monthly mine coins to fund its Treasury which funds project through the centralized governance mechanism another vertical feature about energy that you can actually stake energy coins and ordinary world's current reward rate is 15% annually but this is not all you can also become a master note validator master note validators earn additional forty five to fifty five percent ROI annually which is widely surpasses popular old coins such as z coin and - required coins for masternode is ten thousand and RG so what is energy 3.0 energy 3.0 is the transition to smart contract platform with the majority coin migration the sets will happen by the end of this month the civil ushion will foster mainstream adoption VR the smart contract compatible protocols similar to aetherium but with various superious features energy 3.0 integration with aetherium based essentials application are going to be compatible with energy platform and energy coins that can be used within them this means energy users will get all the advantages of ether and aetherium network while also benefiting from the centralized governance and defense model energy has now let's take a closer look what exactly thomas lee had to say about business price forecasts and cryptocurrencies overall i might even argue that the only thing that explains any boom anywhere in the world is simply a demographic story japan's you know underperformance has been because of an aging population china's boom was simply a rural to urban population shift but I also would tell you that if you looked at the US markets just using demographics alone you could have predicted every bear market in the United States within one to two years with a 40-year lead time so think about that a single metric which is population explained every bear mark in the US with a 40-year advanced lead time and let me show you how this works these are the six living generations in the u.s.
the oldest is the greatest generation and then there's it's roughly twenty year intervals the Silent Generation they're the children born during the Great Depression the baby boomers which were children of those Silent Generation Generation X which is my generation and then we have Millennials on the right I actually list the year that each of those populations peaked okay Greatest Generation peaked in 1930 at around the average age of 39 Silent Generation peaked in 74 at at the age of roughly 40 the Boomers peaked in 99 and Gen X is peaking this year well let's put that on a chart that's the stock market since 1871 and I've shaded each of the peaks of the generation what do you see there every peak of the generation has actually been the peak of the stock market you've had complete transparency to predict every bull market in bear market just looking at population alone and the point of this is that the Millennials don't peak till twenty thirty eight and I think that's the only generation that's gonna matter for anybody in this room okay so there's two net billion Millennials globally it's 43 percent of the adult population and 2018 is the year that there are now more Millennials that are producing income than living at home so this is why the crossover is happening today now we've done some consulting work for some companies and this is one of the outputs of our study but we show that in the next 10 years in the United States alone ninety percent of all purchases of financial products are going to be decided by millennial so the the the single industry that's going to change the most in the next decade is going to be financial services driven single generation and you can see part of that has to do with the income share that Millennials are actually doing quite well today but within a decade they're going to control the largest wallet in the u.s.
and it's already happening this is chase credit card data and this is showing you you every year change the only customer segment at Chase that's consistently growing their credit card spending are their Millennials okay but what do we know about the Millennials number one this is a Facebook study 92% of Millennials don't trust banks first data did their own study seventy-one percent of Millennials would rather go to the dentist then listen to what a bank says and actually 33 percent believe that they won't even need a bank in five years why do Millennials hate the bank's remember the Millennials were teenagers during the financial crisis and in the u.s.
20 million households lost their home to a bank globally of course we had a same housing crisis Millennials only remember that banks took their houses okay and of course now Millennials don't really even go to a bank you know 68 percent of Millennials do their banking primarily on them on a mobile phone I mean it's an app today to them Chase is just an app on their phone and they're gonna control roughly according to first date of roughly 7 trillion of assets by 2020 so again this is just us data but these are huge huge numbers and I think Asia is really important to watch because the adoption rate in crypto is much higher you know 14 percent of Japanese males own a cryptocurrency and 23 percent of Korean adults 20 year-olds are active in the cryptocurrency market this doesn't surprise me Japan and Korea were the first with mobile adoption multiplayer gaming high speed internet a lot of the technological trends actually are driven out of Asia and I'm gonna skip a few charts here in the interest of time but let me just highlight gold because let's say that gold doesn't really mean much to a lot of people I mean I know people buy gold as investments and I think in Asia it's still very popular for jewelry but there was really only one generation that bought gold in size which is the Silent Generation that's the what I've done here is on the bottom chart I've listed the number of people aged 35 to 60 by generation and that dark red line is the Silent Generation remember these were children born during the Great Depression well when the dollar went off the gold standard in 1971 the Silent Generation bought gold like crazy and it drove a 15x gain and gold in a 10-year period that was the only time Gold's actually ever perform that strongly and again it's because of a single generation I think the same things going to happen with Millennials and crypto let me explain why if you had to say what was the biggest trait to have made in the last 20 years it was Fang or in Asia it was bat Fang is the for stocks Facebook Amazon Netflix Google $1,000 invested in Fang starting with Amazon turned into 1.5 million dollars in 20 years okay but here's the surprise 70 percent of that return was just explained by the growth of the global Internet if you had taken each of these four stocks at their IPO and not modeled their company at all but you just said I have a projection of how many Internet users are going to grow over the next 20 years you would have gotten 70% of the return correct on these stocks it's all about the macro right the tactical and we've argued this with our clients our institutional that 70% of all return in equities is a tactical decision well you might say well that's once-in-a-lifetime it's not true in the 1980s the boomers became the biggest consumers right because it was a huge generation and so I'm showing you this chart that in the 80s consumer spending in the u.s.
tripled in a decade never saw that before in any period and that tripling allowed consumer stocks the 7 biggest okay this is Walmart Home Depot Hasbro Limited Brands Dillard's to turn a thousand dollars into 1.2 million in that 12 year period I'm sorry in that 20 year period the Fang stocks of the 80s were the consumer stocks every generation creates another Fang and again I think the next big Fang is within FinTech whether it's square probably Bitcoin that's really the opportunity of the generation and let me explain why again crypto I think is still in the earliest days there's only 50 million crypto wallets active ones at best I mean that's a that's an aggressive estimate but there's 227 million PayPal accounts and there's 4.6 billion Visa and MasterCard accounts if you use social network value which we did with Fang a 50 million going to a 4.6 billion wallet just using Bitcoin as a proxy would mean Bitcoin could be worth over 10 million dollars per Bitcoin in that 20 year period so again this is the big opportunity right just focus on the number of wallets and I think wallets growth is both a function of millennial adoption and the fact that Bitcoin and crypto digital assets are becoming an asset class by itself the first is and as I mentioned only 4% of the market is institutional compared to 40 to 80% in other markets but we now have some solutions coming fact is the most visible you know that's backed by ice we've got companies like Microsoft and Starbucks participating eros which is TD Ameritrade and fidelities getting into this market so I think these are things that are going to draw real Fiat inflows but a different type of investor that's going to tend to be longer term and potentially counter cyclical but this chart didn't come out quite right but I can explain to you what's going on here the one thing that's going to keep institutions on the sidelines is they're going to be watching bitcoins price to its 200-day moving average institutions typically like price momentum to confirm their decision and I'm just showing you since inception Bitcoin when it's above its 200-day has a forward return of roughly 190 percent every six months and it's got a win ratio or daily positive returns eighty percent of the time when bitcoins below its 200-day moving average it's just where it is today because the 200 a moving average is around 7,000 Bitcoin only produces 18 percent gains every six months and only is positive 43% the time institutions aren't going to just come into the market just because backed launches they're waiting for Bitcoin to recover to its 200 a and I think that's the opportunity for everybody in this room unless you think crypto is completely broken we have a price correction taking place that has caused the price to fall even below its 200-day but if you've got Alzheimer isin that's not three months one year but two three years this is a golden time to be long crypto and again as soon as Bitcoin crosses above its turn today we know that there's gonna be a flood of money coming and one thing I'll emphasize again if you look at Bitcoin since 2013 its entire return comes from just ten days every year the dark blue line shows you the average return of Bitcoin every year if you didn't if you subtract out the ten best days in the past five years Bitcoin has had a negative 25% of your return excluding the ten best days and of course as you can see that with the including the ten best days bitcoins been spectacular let me know what you guys think about bitcoins ten million dollar surprise forecast Olivia thoughts in the comment section below hit that like button and subscribe
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