저자: RayDalio외 · 외국인
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결론: 영상은 법정화폐(달러) 가치 하락과 금 보유 필요성을 강조하며, 현금은 '쓰레기'이고 장기적으로 금이 분산투자 수단으로 유효하다는 입장이다. 달러와 금의 관계: 1971년 닉슨의 금태환 중단 이후 달러 구매력은 95% 이상 하락했으며, 달러와 금은 반대로 움직이는 관계다. 장기 수익률 비교: 200년 전 1달러를 금에 투자했다면 현재 약 3.2달러, 주식에 투자했다면 약 100만 달러에 가깝다는 차트를 제시했다. 다만 발언자는 향후 금의 수익률이 개선될 수 있다고 주장한다. 통화 인플레이션 경고: 2008년 이후 과도한 화폐 발행이 중독처럼 지속되고 있으며, 23조 달러 국가부채 상환 불능이나 달러 구매력 완전 상실 시 급격한 붕괴 가능성을 언급했다. 워런 버핏과의 대비: 버핏은 대규모 현금(약 1300억 달러 규모)을 보유하며 시장 급락 시 기회 포착용으로 활용한다고 설명했다. 발언자는 시장 급락기에 현금이 금보다 유리할 수 있다는 점도 인정했다. 분산투자 전략: 데이비드 테퍼의 주식 장기 보유 주장을 인용하며, 글로벌 분산과 일정 비중의 금 보유를 권고했다. 비트코인 평가: 발언자는 비트코인이 교환수단으로서도, 가치저장 수단으로서도 변동성 때문에 효과적이지 않다고 봤다. 반면 진행자는 장기적으로 최고 수익 자산이라고 반박했다. 금리 전망: 미국 장기 금리 방향에 대해 향후 5년간 적자 확대와 국채 공급 증가 가능성을 제기했으나, 발언자 본인도 틀릴 수 있다고 유보했다. 출연자 전망: 금은 장기적으로 분산투자 수단으로 유효하며, 현금은 인플레이션과 화폐 가치 하락 위험에 노출된다고 본다. 리스크: 달러 구매력 급락 시나리오, 부채 위기, 시장 급락 및 금리 변동이 주요 위험 요인이다.
다듬은 글
hey what is up guys few days ago on a CNBC financial news channel Ray Dalio one of the most respected investors in the world said that cash is trash in this video I will elaborate what does he mean by saying that and also I will explain why Warren Buffett thinks otherwise a year year cash is trash tell us something else we do not know what I think he meant to say that it's not cash and cash equivalent is trash I think he meant to say the fiat currency such as US dollar is trash US dollar is a pieces of paper of just claiming cheques that used to be backed by real money now it backed by nothing but faith in the US government I found this interesting chart that summarizes US dollar comparing to other asset classes it goes back all the way to it seen hundreds more than two hundred years ago as we see on this chart u.s.
dollar was backed by gold for more than a century this is why it was fluctuating in the same manner as a one-to-one function then in 1971 President Nixon temporarily suspended yes dollar convertibility needs a gold I had directed secretary Connally to suspend temporarily the convertibility of the dollar in the gold or other reserve assets except in amounts and conditions determined to be in the interest of monetary stability and in the best interest of the United States I really like that term temporarily it has been temporarily for more than 50 years how do you like that this is why we can see a bigger divergence between cold and US dollar addition to that US dollar that a tree will lose its purchasing power until that event since then it was more than 95 percent of its purchasing power and as we know that fat will continue print more and more money and those claiming cheques while the US dollar becomes worth less and less another interesting thing I would like to point out is that gold was not a good investment for many many years according to this chart if you would invest $1 200 years ago now you would have only slightly over $3 20 cent but on the flip side if you would invest $1.00 in stock market 200 years ago now you will have close to 1 million dollars how about million extra turn on your investment that sounds phenomenal well I would argue that in the near future we can expect a decent rate of return on cold as well and here is why since we know that US dollar and gold is like linking yank and totally opposite sides when US dollar goes down gold goes up and if you look at the rate at how much money you as printing currently it's insane since 2008 housing bubble and global financial crisis they start printing money in very fast and fast rate initially it was understandable because they needed to stimulate another economic cycle but the interesting thing is they never stopped or even slowed down they got addicted to those cheap money and continue printing more and more it's like a depressed person that wants to feel better and tries alcohol or even drugs the pressure seems to go away but he never stopped drinking and taking drugs but now he's an alcoholic or drug addict so what happens if he stops taking those substances he might get even more depressed the same analogy we can apply to current economic state what will happen if you as default on 23 trillion dollars national debt which we know there is no such money in the world to repay all that debt or even worst what will happen if dolla loses its purchasing power completely things might go from 100 to 0 real quick so here Ray Dalio does not like cash because there is no limit at how much fat can print it after all but unlike Ray Dalio our homeboy Warren Buffett he has a different opinion he actually thinks that cash is not that bad after all we will always operate with lots of cash other people might have not sold a few things and what but I would I I always want to sleep low on so I always have way more cash than we could possibly need under any circumstances right to give yourself that cushion always and if you call me tomorrow with some deal that requires more money than we have available that would leave me with cash below comfort level I've got two choices to say no to you or to sell sell something and and that may depend on the circumstances and whether I think I can get those sold and all of that but I I am NOT going to leave a berkshire ever uncomfortable in respect to cash he has a large sum of cash in his portfolio currently he holds close to 130 billion of cash which is approximately one quarter of berkshire hathaway total market capitalization but if cash is so bad why is he doing that well here is why if either one above it was admitted or not he holds this much cash because he anticipates a market decline he anticipates one day there will be raining cold outside and what do we have to do is just to go outside and pick up golden coins we we do like having a lot of money to be able to operate very fast and very big and yes we don't and maybe we won't we know we won't get those opportunities frequently I don't think it's certainly you know in the next you know in the next 20 or 30 years I'll be in two or three times when it'll be raining gold and all you have those go outside but we don't know when they will happen and and we have a lot of money to commit of course this is just an analogy he will pick up Birkenstocks on a few cents on the dollar when there will be a significant market decline another thing cash is very valuable in the market declines because first things first investors selling assets and what do you think they get instead of that asset they get cash in return in the beginning stages during the market decline catch even outperforms gold since people selling stocks and bonds for cash then they want to eventually move into gold this is why during that transition cash is even more superior than other asset classes out there I'm like what about fair trade alia isn't trying to pick a bargains he's trying to position his portfolio before market decline by hedging and diversify the kis portfolio let's take a look what he has to say about the cash is trash and his strategy we had David Tepper had texted into the show on on Friday and suggested right now that you have to be in the market for long and so the question is whether everybody jumps on the train everybody gets in full-on and then the problem arises they're talking about likely then the mind you jump off the train but also the question is what do you jump into when you jump off the train and that issue is you you can't jump into cash cash is trash okay cash is that they're going to because they're gonna print money if we could all what do you do you get out okay so cash is not gonna do what do you do so what you have to do is you have to have a well diversified portfolio and first of all you you have to be global and you have to have balance and I think like it you know I don't want to grab well the headlines gonna be again anyway is I think that you have to have a certain amount of gold in your portfolio or you have to have something that's hard there are three monetary systems that happen the first isn't in the old days it had intrinsic valued carry around gold coins then they and then we come up with the idea banks or even central banks and what they do is they create certificates write call notes that are claims on those things and we put many more certificates than there is money in the bank and then that's a linked system and we so we did that and we broke that in 1971 then you have a mana a Fiat monetary system which means that you can print whatever amount of money you want and you can put that and that's what governments do so we're in that part of the cycle bigger picture so that when you think about things the depreciation of the exchange rate and the printing of money I think over the next few years is going to be the biggest if you want to buy gold you buy Bitcoin no here's hmm there are two purposes of money a medium of exchange and a store hold of wealth and bitcoin is not effective in either of those cases now store wealth soar vote no because for essentially it's it's too volatile because of the volatility you can't go next to it someday when it you know I would say Libra or something which is as more stable value has got more potential but also who is going to do the buying central bankers and others what are they gonna hold as reserves what has been tried and true are they gonna hold digital bit going cut they're going to hold gold their that is a reserve currency and it's been a reserve currency for a thousand years um I don't want to I know this is gonna be the headline of gold I want to emphasize a bit of gold is a diversifier okay and that's the advice I can give I know I'm gonna come out of here like raid Ali's wild on gold and that's not exactly my second dashes trash is your headline but but great you would have thought that after all the years of zero interest rates and QE 1 2 3 & 4 you could have been making this case that entire time what what of what you were just making it maybe there was so much of a lack of demand in the private sector following the financial crisis that it was able to absorb all of that but coming to us now with that it almost at the risk of sounding like the boy who cried wolf too many times I'm not saying you did but we all were that the death of the bond vigil the delante the vigilante we it's been well-documented for the past 10 years now you're saying it's worse I think it's totally do well I would say when we are dealing with the negative interest rates which we've had those doors in years already well know we know how long it's been ok and you take each country and you take where we were in December toward the tightening then you create an easing we are now coming into a direction and so the question for any of us is not whether it's early or not the question for any of us is when you're holding all of those bonds and you have a negative interest rate or something and how far more can you push that what is the next five years look like and the next five years is going to be something like that plus they'll be more deficit now more deficits means sell more bonds who are you going to sell the bond why should I believe we're going to negative interest rates in the United States well I I think that and I'm not saying now I'm Sarah that okay if you if you have a next next downturn okay mm-hmm what is it's on average 500 basis points of rate cuts oh then you can't do that you go to Kuwait right all right and Martin we're having from our normal DeLand right we don't have much stimulant we have people at each other's throats over the wealth gap and so what will the next downturn be and also why would you want to hold those so why do you want to hold those at some point I don't know I could be wrong I'm not sure I've been wrong plenty in my life so I can't I could be wrong I'm just trying to describe like tell me why that makes sense also rate value does not like Bitcoin because it's not the medium of exchange nor it's a store of wealth well I would argue that it is actually both of those things it might not be the best medium of exchange yet but it's a great store of wealth he believes that bitcoin is not a great store of wealth because it's volatile on day to day basis but if you have a long term vision that volatility declines from year to year basis bitcoin is the best performing asset for the past decade it's not only stores wealth it grows your wealth let me know what you guys think about $3 you're saying that cash is trash leave your thoughts in the comment section below hit that like button and subscribe
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