저자: JimRogers · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 짐 로저스는 금이 1,000달러 아래로 떨어질 때까지 매수하지 않겠다며, 금이 버블화될 수 있다고 경계하고 미국 증시는 큰 폭의 하락(50% 이상)을 예상한다. 금 시장: 2011년 대폭등 이후 긴 조정이 이어지고 있으며, 금이 약 950달러 부근까지 내려오면 매수를 고려한다고 밝혔다. 이미 금을 보유하고 있으나 추가 매수는 그 가격 이후로 미룬다. 다만 장기적으로는 금이 과대평가된 버블이 될 수 있다고 경고했다. 미국 증시: 미국 주식시장은 사상 최고치 부근이지만 고점 매수는 하지 않겠다고 밝혔다. 트럼프 관련 호재로 단기 블로우오프가 나올 수 있으나 이를 노리는 것은 자신의 능력 밖이라고 했다. 다음 약세장은 2008년보다 더 나쁠 수 있으며, 연준 대차대조표가 10년간 500% 늘어난 부채 문제가 원인이 된다고 봤다. 무역 정책: 북미(NAFTA) 재협상과 무역전쟁 위험에 대해 부정적이다. 무역전쟁은 누구에게도 이익이 아니며, 현재 합의 내용은 미국 소비자 물가 상승을 초래해 미국에 나쁘다고 평가했다. 투자 조언: 현재 특별히 사랑하는(매수하고 싶은) 자산은 없다고 밝혔다. 대신 짐바브웨에 투자 관심을 표명했다. 장기간 독재로 망가졌으나 새 지도자 체제에서 변화 가능성이 있다는 이유다.
다듬은 글
joining me today is Jim Rogers chairman of Rogers Holdings that Jim good to see you again thank you for joining us I am delighted to be here Danielle how are you I'm doing great and since about last time we spoke you said that if gold doesn't rally when bad things are happening then the correction isn't over now we're up a little bit this Thursday but what's keeping gold from really taking off your Jim and yellow as I've said to you several times before I'm still not a buyer until gold goes under a thousand US dollars an ounce I own gold I hope I'm smart enough to buy a lot of gold when it gets there but you know we had a huge blow off back in 2011 and I've been around long enough to know that huge blow offs usually take a long time to correct in my view that's what's going on I mean I'm not a very good trader but that's how I see the world so with the tough summer it's been four for gold Jim I know you've said in the past many times that you buy it when gold is down was that a good time for you not yet I'm still waiting for her from 950 or some 950 a US dollars an ounce or something like that it may not get there if it doesn't it's okay I own a lot of gold but that's when I what I plan to do Daniela if it gets there I hope I'm smart enough and brave enough to buy a lot of gold because before this is over before this is over Danny gold is gonna turn into a very overpriced as I said it might even turn into a bubble let's move on to equities now Jim I stock markets as you know have climbed even higher since the last time we spoke our valuations just over stretched here and is now a risk on or a risk off period Daniel you say markets I mean there many markets in the world that have collapsed that are down a lot you're talking about the United States start Marc let's look at the US believe it or not that's not the only market in the world then yeah yeah the US markets making all-time highs I'm not interested in buying any market making all-time highs and it looks like it might well go higher you know if Trump comes up with some good news for a while instead of all this bad news you can have a blow-off in the US stock market right gonna have a one file move but I don't I'm not smart enough to buy blow offs I can't I don't know how to do that I know we also spoke about how you foresaw or could easily see in over 50 percent correction happening in the US stock market are you sticking to that oh yeah it's gonna be worse than that Danielle when the next time we have a bear market and I wish I were smart enough to know when it's gonna be the worst in my lifetime of 2008 we had a problem because of too much debt Danijela the debt has gone through the roof since 2008 the Federal Reserve in America alone has increased its balance sheet by 500% in ten years I mean that's unheard of that has never nothing like that has ever happened in history and these are crazy things going on Jim I'd love to get your thoughts now on you know the NAFTA deal unfold lis unfolding and dismantling here you know we have a risk what that posed to to someone's portfolio well if it turns into a trade war and mr.
Trump keeps saying he wants trade wars it's not good for anybody nobody's ever won a trade war and trade wars have never been good for anybody we saw that the Mexicans and the Americans did something recently but I look at that what details we have and I think what's going on here this is bad for America it means that prices are gonna go up in the United States how is that good for anybody at all maybe there are the details I don't know about but so far what's being negotiated mr.
Trump keeps saying it's a triumph but I'm an American citizen and there 325 million of us it doesn't look good for us from what I can see hmm all right Jim final words for investors you know I love asking you what you're buying or selling right now so right now in this time what does Jim Rogers love I cannot think of anything I love I've learned in my life that if I love something I should not do it I should learn the other way when I get too enthusiastic cannot wait to buy something I need to calm down go to the beach or do something so at the moment I don't love anything I am Bob Lee I'm buying Zimbabwe you know Zimbabwe was ruined for 40 years by a crazy dictator there's a new guy he may be worse he may be better but he's certainly different so you should think about Zimbabwe if you're looking for something to buy all right Jim Rogers always appreciate speaking with you thank you so much
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