저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 마크 파버는 미국 증시가 고점 대비 20~40% 하락할 것이라며 여전히 강한 약세론을 유지하고, 인도는 선별적 저가 매수 기회로 본다. 미국 증시: 지수는 소수 대형주(페이스북·아마존·넷플릭스·구글 등 약 20종목)가 떠받쳤을 뿐 일반 종목은 이미 약세장이다. 평균 주식은 최근 12개월간 고점 대비 약 26% 하락, 12개월 신저가가 1,000개를 넘었다. S&P500은 2015년 5월 고점 2,134 대비 20~40% 하락 가능성을 제시했고, 저점 재테스트 시 약 30~40% 하락으로 해석된다. 중앙은행: 과도한 유동성 공급은 주가와 부동산을 띄우지만 자산 불평등과 주택 구매력 악화 부작용을 낳는다. 돈을 찍으면 자산 인플레이션은 생기나 통화 강세가 동반되지는 않는다. 현재 급반등 랠리는 과매도에 따른 기술적 반등으로, 신고점 경신 가능성은 낮다고 봤다. 인도: 센섹스가 2만 pt까지 추가 20% 하락할 가능성을 언급했다. 그러나 변동성 장에서 20%는 큰 문제가 아니며, 장기적으로는 상승할 것으로 보고 하락 시 분할 매수를 고려할 만하다고 했다. 라잔 총재처럼 통화정책을 타이트하게 유지해 통화가 강세인 것이 인도에 최선이라고 평가했다. 주식시장은 인구 중 극소수만 보유하므로 평균 인도인에게 중요하지 않다고 봤다. 중국: 공식 GDP 6.9%는 신뢰할 수 없고 실제 성장률은 2~4% 수준으로 본다. 과도한 신용 버블(GDP 대비 신용 50% 이상 증가)이 디플레이션되어야 하며, 대만·한국 수출입, 발틱 건화물지수, 전력 소비 등이 성장 둔화를 가리킨다고 주장했다. 중국 경기 급락 시 인도에도 악재라고 경고했다. 원자재·다보스: 유가 폭락은 수요 약화보다 공급 과잉이 원인이라는 골드만삭스 임원 견해를 반박했다. 다보스 엘리트들의 낙관론은 신뢰하지 말라고 권했다. 리스크: 파버의 전망은 주로 장기 약세 관점이며 구체적 시점과 목표치는 대부분 명시되지 않았다. 인도 조정 목표(2만 pt)는 시점이 불명확하다.
다듬은 글
and we have a very special guest joining us today on the show Dr Mark Faber editor and publisher of the Gloom boom and doom report Dr Faba thank you so much for joining in you know before I throw my first question open to you I just want to tell viewers about this monster rally that's taking place in Asia today particularly in Japan let's just pull up those indices we have seen an 800 Point move on the nikai in fact that market went home with gains of almost 6% others in the region were absolutely following suit and were in sync whether it's the Hong Kong or the cosp whichever one you're looking at and we've of course taken our queue from there the the Nifty itself has reclaimed 7,400 so Dr Faber it's been sparked by Mr Mario dragi last evening once again the ECB hinting that there could be a review of their monetary policy stance but you have predicted and uh this is what I've captured in some of the commentary that you've made in the recent past a 40% crash in stock prices do you stick to that view well what I said is that uh the market in the US would decline by between 20 and 40% from the high reached last May which was on the S&P 2,134 and I also told you six months ago actually to CNBC India when the Indian market was still close to 30,000 that I expected the market to decline to around 24,000 Dr Faba how do you read the picture right now you are bearish on China and I don't think uh that 6.9% GDP number is something that you were in agreement with now we have central banks hinting at some kind of action there are experts talking about action in Japan and of course in the ECB how do you read this fall that we've seen so far in January and just the overall setup well basically uh the market in the US began to decline a long time ago if you look at the average stock in the US it is down over the last 12 months by 26% from their highs the average stock but the indices held up very well until the end of December because the indices do not reflect what is really happening in the market say you have an index you have 500 stocks if three stocks are very very strong they can push up the index while 497 stocks go down you understand so we have to look at the market beneath the surface and beneath the surface there was already a bare Market in the US for a long time for a year or more but the fun stocks and maybe another 20 shares such as Facebook Amazon Netflix Google and maybe as I said another 20 shares they were driving and keeping the index up but the typical share has been in a bare market and the interventions by the central banks have a numerous unintended consequences they lead to Rising stock prices that is true and to uh recovery in real estate markets but for many people this is not favorable because uh particularly in real estate the affordability becomes an issue they don't have the money to buy expensive homes and so the home ownership rate in the US has been way down but Dr Faber are we done with this current route at least do you think we are close to the bottom how would you read this Mega rebound rally that's been underway today in many markets the US Europe and of course in Asia how do you read today's rally and how far away from the bottom do you think we are their markets are characterized by very sharp rallies that then fade relatively quickly in the US last Friday we also had a huge Rally from the lows the market still closed down and it was unusual this happens very very seldom we had over 1,000 12 months new lows in the US this is very seldom that this happens and it's indicative that precisely most stocks have been weak for a long time and it's also indicative that we are in a very oversold position but the oversold position can lead to a rally but most likely and I'm saying most likely not to new High so this is just a bare Market rally you were saying yes I mean we have uh I think the markets will still go lower but uh we can have if the the difficult is if you print money basically something will go up and in the case of the last few years what have gone up meaningfully are stocks but as you know after 2011 stocks did no longer go up and may I remind you that in US Dollars the Indian stock market is still down 35% from its high in May 2008 that's in US Dollars and we are down uh last year 27% from the uh high in early 2015 in March 201 so basically if you print money you can lower the value of your currency and then you can have asset inflation but not necessarily in a strong currency Dr far so the Emerging Market hello uh Dr Faber if I could just come in there since you brought up India uh a lot of the optimists here and even around the world are categorizing this Market as perhaps the best place at least in the Emerging Market Basket what is your specific call on India how much do you think this Market can go and would it make sense for you know contrarians to actually start deploying any money in India right now yes I mean I would say personally I think India may still go down around 20,000 that's possible that's another 20% in a volatile World 20% is not a big deal and I think that eventually the market will go higher in India but it will obviously depend on monetary policies I prefer India to have relatively tight monetary policies as they are practiced under Mr Rajan who I think is the best Central Banker in the world because if you keep money relatively tight the currency is relative strong and this has happened in India this is the best for India to have a relative strong currency the stock market is not important for the average Indian because the maximum uh a few percentage of the population own shares so you're saying the sensex can go down to 20,000 let me quickly now take your views on how you're reading China and how you're reading oil and I'll tell you this I I was listening to some commentary from Davos that was coming yesterday the COO of Goldman sa says the world is perhaps reading the oil Market wrong people are saying that the oil fall or the collaps in prices is an indication of weakness in the economy it's not really a problem in terms of demand it's actually over Supply which has driven down oil so much so therefore why are we getting so bearish how do you react to some of these views and of course how you looking at China in the context of this commodity collapse well first of all uh I'm not predicting that the Indian market will go to 20,000 but I think it's a possibility that will go down to 20,000 but as I told you I think a 20% decline in a volatile world is nothing so from a longer term perspective I think it's probably quite a good time to start uh buying some Indian equities secondly my advice to all your Indian viewers is this don't listen to the people in Davis this is the establishment uh they all lie they are all misinformed they all pursue an agenda so don't even listen to them uh these are the same people that two years ago told the world that China was growing rapidly and expanding that resource prices would go up and so forth and so on so their credibility is undermined and that's why we have in the US candidates like Mr Trump who I don't particularly like but he has a feel because he attacks these Elites that Gather in DAV and do nothing but talk a lot so you're saying don't listen to people in Davos uh fine we will keep that in mind as we get more and more of the of those views Western views largely but coming back to China uh I think you are one of the people who has the most bearish view on that economy you're saying 4% is the actual rate of GDP growth if China goes into a tail spin that is uh terrible news for everybody including us here in India so very quickly uh you think the oil Market is close close to its bottom and what do you think we can expect from China over the next couple of weeks and months uh basically the Chinese economy is much weaker than the government is uh telling you the economy at the present time uh is growing at maximum two to 4% and China like India is a huge Empire and some sectors of the economy are expanding and others are Contracting but in general eneral uh we have a colossal credit bubble in China uh credit as a percent of the economy has expanded by over 50% in the last six years and this credit bubble has to be deflated one way or the other India in this respect is in a better position because we don't have that kind of a credit bubble we also have some excessive Credit in some sector of the economy but not to the extent China has and uh in my view the Chinese economy and you just have to look at imports and exports from Taiwan from South Korea these are relatively uh reliable statistics then you look at the Baltic dry index at freight costs in China at electricity consumption and and and and everything points out that the economy is not growing at 6.9% this is complete nonsense but of course it's published by the government that's why I'm telling you don't listen to the diverse people all right Dr Faber always a pleasure talking to you thank you so much for joining in and taking out the time today so that is Dr Doom he does say 20,000 on the sensex but he's saying perhaps selectively you can start deploying because you can't really time the bottom otherwise he's still very very bearish on the US market expecting the S&P 500 to retest early low is perhaps translating into a 30 to 40% collapse in US Equity prices not convinced about more printing from central banks at all likes Mr rajin says he should keep monetary policy tight here in India we
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