저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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결론: 짐 로저스는 2016년 1월 기준 원자재(농산물·원유)는 장기적으로 상승할 것이라 보고 중국 주식 및 신흥국 투자에 낙관적이며, 금은 단기 약세 후 1,000달러 아래로 밀릴 때 매수 기회로 본다. 원유: 원유 가격이 과도하게 떨어졌으나 하락 모멘텀이 끝나면 반등할 것으로 보고, 소량 매수는 했지만 현재는 추가 매수하지 않는다고 함. 저유가로 시추가 줄어 공급이 감소하며 생산자에게 수년 내 유리해질 것이라 주장. 바닥 시점이나 저점 수준은 명확히 답하지 않음. 농산물: 30년 이상 침체 상태였으므로 가격이 회복되면 오랜 기간 상승할 것이라 전망. 농민 평균 연령 고령화, 농업 인력 감소를 근거로 향후 10~20년간 낙관. 설탕은 고점 대비 75~80% 하락했다고 언급. 금: 자신은 금을 보유하지 않고 헤지만 해둠(약 5년간 미매수). 금은 1,000달러/온스 아래로 떨어질 가능성이 크며 그때 더 살 것이라 함. 전쟁·위기가 나면 금 상승, 저가 자체도 금에 긍정적이라고 설명. 시점은 1~2년 내로 추정. 달러: 자신은 미국 달러를 대량 보유 중이며 매도하지 않을 것이라 함. 불확실성으로 달러가 과대평가될 수 있어 그때 매도할 계획. 미국은 세계 최대 채무국이라고 주장. 기업 신호: 앵글로아메리칸의 배당 중단·인력 감축은 시장이 공급을 줄이는 과정이며 생산자에게는 단기적으로 불리하나 수년 내 호전될 것이라 봄. 신흥국: 카자흐스탄은 원유 생산국이고 가격이 낮아 저평가, 개혁이 빠르다고 평가. 러시아·이란·북한에도 관심 언급. 중국: 중국 주식이 자신의 최대 국가별 보유 비중이며, 21세기는 중국의 세기라고 주장. 높은 저축·투자율과 교육·노동 규율을 근거로 듦. 마이애미: 라틴아메리카 관문으로서 도시가 매력적이며 중국인 투자 수요도 같은 이유라고 봄. 출연자 전망 요약: 원유·농산물은 장기 상승, 금은 단기 약세 후 저점 매수 가능, 중국 장기 낙관.
다듬은 글
let's start with oil because you know lots of lots going on in the news regarding oil despite the fact that most investors want to stay far away from oil right now as a commodity you've actually said very recently that you would start investing in it tell me why well i thought that oil had stopped going down whenever bad news came out but obviously more bad news came out it kept going down so what i said at the time was you could start buying a small amount i did buy a small amount but now i'm not buying it looks to me like when you have something like this happen it usually develops momentum and goes down for a while but somewhere along in here amir this is going to be a great opportunity to buy oil to buy russia to buy countries that produce oil it's going to be a wonderful before too much longer right when do you think oil prices are going to bottom out should we expect to see that soon and if so i mean how low do you think it can go you should watch rt television i don't know it's certainly when it develops momentum like this it will certainly overshoot and things always do when they break down like this so i don't 32 you picked a number i don't know okay fair enough now outside of oil you have said that you think agriculture provides a very good investment right now as well explain that to me and tell me what specifically you like in the sector well agriculture has been a horrible business for 30 years over 30 years amira it's so bad that the average age of farmers in america is 58 in japan at 66.
i can go on and on with horrible statistics about people dying getting out of the business committing suicide more people in america study public relations than study agriculture so we're going to have a crisis in agriculture soon unless something happens if the price of food and profits and agriculture don't go up we're not going to have any food at any price we're not going to have any clothes at any price so i'm very optimistic about agriculture over the next decade or two and we haven't forgotten by the way that you told my colleague erin who you spoke to last time that she should actually quit her job and become a farmer in china but that was of course before commodity prices collapsed it was also before all the recent angst bubbled up over china so just to be clear you would still recommend she do that absolutely i just explained to you that the fundamentals in agriculture get better and better and better every day that goes by we have fewer and fewer farmers and more and more people okay i will let her know what she said i'll relay her that message now when you say you like go ahead i totally i told her to learn how to drive a tractor i hope she's done it i will again i'll relay her that message see where her skills have taken her but um when you say you like these investments what kind of timeline are we talking about here i mean are we talking over the next several months two years 10 years i mean you know what's your projection both for oil and for agriculture well agriculture for the next decade or two because when uh when it turns and it's in the process of turning if you ask me it's got to go up for a long time you know agricultural prices are down a lot in the past uh 15 or 20 years it's one of the few things in in the world that's gone down in price sugar is down 75 or 80 percent from its all-time high amira that's astonishing if you if you start looking at the world so this is going to go on a long time when agriculture turns oil probably will too at the moment as you know it's it's not profitable to drill nearly anywhere in the world at these prices so a lot of drilling is going to get cut back not not new wells no new a few new wells are going to be built no no this is going to last a long time when it turns yeah well let's talk about gold i know it's a commodity you're invested in it's been a rough year for gold all together falling by about one-third in value since january but at the beginning of this year back in january you know gold did get off to a really great start the best since 2008 as far as i understand and people were talking about gold being a golden investment this year it was supposed to continue to benefit from central bank's efforts to devalue their currencies we never quite saw that surge happen however so you know what really happened in your view well i've been negative on i own gold but i've hedged my gold i haven't bought gold for probably five years now i expect another great opportunity to buy gold it could go it probably will go under a thousand dollars an ounce and if that happens i hope i'm smart enough to buy more and you think when would be the best time uh when do you think that's going to happen are we talking uh next year a couple years from now emir you should watch rt watch rttv to get all these answers i know it's probably it's probably going to happen in the next year or two yes okay i want your opinion i value your opinion that's why you're on the show okay well i suspect it will happen in the next couple of years okay fair enough so um gold is now coming off a three-week high after u.s jobs data boosted the dollar given the fact that the dollar is only expected to strengthen with an interest rate hike um do you think you know you just kind of you know alluded to this at this point i mean should we just write gold off in the near term for sure well i'm not buying gold but everybody has to make their own decision i do own a lot of u.s dollars i'm not selling my u.s dollars i expect the us dollar to get very overpriced because there's more turmoil coming and people don't know what to do so look for a safe haven the us dollar is not a safe haven the u.s is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world but most people think it's a safe haven so i'm sure it's going to get overpriced i hope i'm smart enough to sell it if and when that happens you are indeed smart enough i will say that now um tell me i mean do you think a crisis has to come into play for us to see gold rally i mean and if so what kind of crisis well low prices for many people will be will be a crisis if gold goes to 950 a lot of people are going to think that that's a crisis because there are a lot of people who believe gold is holy and it can never go down so that would be a cry crisis in price for instance certainly if war breaks out in the world that will make gold go up it'll make oil go and make everything go up oil agriculture gold everything so yes a crisis would be good for gold but likewise low prices would be good for gold now jim just recently the commodities producer anglo-american suspended dividend payments for the second half of 2015 and 2016 also cut down its staff sizably you know what should that tell us about how we should expect commodity producers to fare as an investment in the next several months or even in the next few years well the market is doing what the market's supposed to do uh you know it's making people making supply go down low prices are the cure for low prices is low prices when you have low prices production declines expiration declines it's happening so this is going to be good for the producers not at the moment but certainly in the next couple of years the producers are going to turn around and go up a lot okay now in terms of places to invest it seems that you're still keen on emerging markets places i've heard you express interest in recently are russia iran north korea but the one that stands out to me that you seldom hear about that you've been talking about lately is kazakhstan and you actually visited the country as far as i understand back in october tell me why kazakhstan well first of all kazakhstan's an oil producer and so it's cheap because of the price of oil has come down secondly if you go to i mean i've been there a couple of times as you point out i'm astonished at the things that they're saying and doing in kazakhstan it's as though i were saying this is what we're going to do they're changing everything for it's you know it's an old communist it's an old uh state of the ussr boy they are changing dramatically even more than russia is now that's central asia but let's talk about asia on on the whole given that asian economies seem to be affected by the recent global growth slowdown particularly china are you still bullish on asia's long-term economic prospects and can you give me an example of why well i certainly am i much chinese stocks are my largest country for owning stocks why uh the next century the 21st century is the century of china because they're on the rise again in china they save and invest over 35 percent of their income they work from dawn to dusk i mean they're doing all the things that america used to do that britain used to do a couple of hundred years ago they're doing it right now they're educating their children they discipline their children their discipline their workforce they're doing everything right all right so you're still bullish on that region of the world now speaking of china this is a country that's heavily invested in latin america i'm sure you know that because of the abundance of raw materials but recently we've been hearing that miami actually right where you are has become increasingly attractive to the chinese what do you think that's about i mean do you think that has to do with the status of miami as a gateway to latin america well absolutely i i used to find miami boring i am here at the moment and it's a very exciting city now it's a world-class city partly because of the influx of people from many other countries so i'm very keen on on miami i'm sure the chinese see the same thing lots of people see the same thing now it's attractive to americans to western hemisphere people and therefore to chinese and
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