원문 보기
well hello and welcome to this special program uh markets are of course about four or five percent away from all-time highs uh will we get to all-time highs can the market continue to perform like it has been from the lows which were made in the end of March that's the question and who better to answer some of this than Ram the Agarwal chairman and co-founder moti Los Val Financial Services uh he's with us here in our Studios great to have you with us here good morning thank you very much sir for making a guitar uh what is your sense uh we are in the midst of the earnings season yeah and you're a very close Watcher of earnings and you've always believed that earnings will dictate eventually where stock prices go so what's your reading of what we've seen so far from the fourth quarter earnings yeah so fourth quarter we are seeing some positive surprises uh in terms of earnings like Nestle as a uh maruti's number or uh and all so they were kind of a bright spots uh Banks across the board like private as well as public so I think in my 30 40 years care this is the best what you call banking system across like whether it is a private and public you have very robust banking system apart from profit growth and limb growth and all that lowest credit cost and all just that every bank is capitalized government doesn't have to give any uh submission or support Capital support to any of the banking systems so I think it is really ready to fund the Indian economics growth so that's one one good thing I see and uh last year could have been a very good year but for the Ukraine war and all the inflationary and logistic uh dislocation things like that but now I think that seems to be subsiding I I've visited a lot of companies and all of them are saying that uh cost is definitely on the decline uh it may not be in the Q4 this quarter that they will get to see the benefit of that but q1 Q2 should be much better because all those high cost inventory they'll all get consumed in this quarter and next quarter onwards you see the margin sex bonding so I think uh earnings momentum is going to build slowly from here onwards uh economy is likely to grow at any better six to seven percent with four five percent inflation another brightest spot in the economy which is developing is the stronger rupee if you see the rupee today I don't know how much is trading yesterday it was 81 75 or 77 so continuously there is a strength of rupee current account deficit is slumped in the Q4 is it one quarter phenomena or it is going to be repeating because the kind of services good we saw in last four quarters does it is it going to continue at that pace you know even at 50 70 percent I think uh we are in a very interesting turning point of Indian economy by chance our current account deficit comes to about one percent or so which can be funded very easily and so rupee dollar where we keep losing three four percent every year which again has huge implications everywhere interest rate inflation I think there we might get some relief I mean even if three four percent decline comes down to a percentage or so because then RBI will try to build a reserve about a trillion two trillion whatever so I think we are in a very good Swedish spot uh my senses what is acceleration to you many uh have said that there will be a deceleration the continue after third quarter earnings or lots of downgrades but we will go through this process of more downgrades this year because the world is slowing down and some of it will show up here as well yeah but Indian economy has its own kind of momentum the government has set its own momentum of 600 is the fastest growing economy so in that context see if you look at the even Q till Q3 first three quarters the Top Line both have corporates were like 15 16 it's just that cost inflation they just couldn't pass and hence the earnings both are very muted Q4 is looking much better uh if you look at the aggregate numbers so my sense is going forward from here we are going to see that at least 15 15 17 across the board Nifty earnings growth uh there will be some spots of weakness I believe some portion of rural economy there the low end discretionary spend is still pretty weak but that always will be there some reason or another but I think across the board earnings once the earning momentums pick up uh then uh you know the retail Behavior fi behavior and and if you see longer terms see one is one is that we are focused on next four quarters and things like that but you look at five ten years this only this is the only large economy where you can save five to seven percent sustained growth for 10 years which economy you can say I mean China has done what it has done but from here onwards China growth story Still Remains intact but the stock market story is gone nowhere so after us it's only India where you have opportunity of going going from three and a half trillion to seven trillion and if the rupee doesn't depreciate in next five seven years then you can achieve that in maybe five six years you know so you could be studying at 200 at least you invest for 600 years which is going economy going from three and a half to seven trillion I mean you and me cannot imagine how India will look in 2030 so the long-term picture for India is very bright but just talking about say the next 12 months do you think banks will be out performers or Market performers because everyone's expecting good numbers so in a way it's priced in it's already outperformed and then there is a risk of Nims Contracting so can Banks generate that Alpha which they did in the last uh you know 12 months going ahead I would think uh it will not be huge Alpha but uh I think because see the LA there are two largest segment of the market one is a this banking second is it these two make up almost like 45 50 of the market yes if it in any case is slow down so I don't expect it to be in a terrific shape though in U.S it is doing very well but in India because of their own earnings slow down I think Rd will it will consider it in this year so then only thing left is the banking so and banking earnings are going to be very good in this year I I don't yeah I mean there are there are thought talks about nemex uh Contracting maybe 10 babes 20 babes or things like that but it's still the top line goes will be pretty good and operating leverage will also come so my sense is that the current year should be good here for banking as a whole but I don't know how big will be without performance Market performing yes all right uh I am the you know so banks are continue to do well on the on their results but what about I.T that's been the big disappointment right that's the other smaller pillar but that's disappointed very good quality companies but if you are buying like you said invest for a little longer duration someone who's Investing For Five Years or good time to start nibbling in right now yeah clearly valuations are corrected the good time to buy I see it story of India has gone with the story of India in a sense that we are going to write this and uh it is going to come back and come back with venginess in the sense that uh the growth rate which is which might come down from say 12 13 to maybe uh High single disease seven eight percent ten percent so then you know something will change you know when the U.S economy World economy comes out of shell and they want to again uh build up investing in their ID and all again we'll get orders so good time to start dipping into it yeah I mean you can go stock by stock but you have time in the sense that you can start building up your portfolio on it also preference between mid and large it companies uh I think large mid caps who qualifies under that yeah like LTI types you know which are in two three billion dollar kind of a thing yeah so they don't suffer from the lack of scale and they also don't suffer from the large scale that's very well put you know so it and banking is what we've spoken about services but what about Third Leg manufacturing and that's the question that we'll put around we have to take a quick commercial break here we're back with that in just a bit yes it's okay for us to not for everything because we are parents yes but by chance with five pesos in-depth company information always stay up to date installment investment in Securities Market are subject to Market risk read all related documents carefully before investing welcome back we're in conversation with ramdev Agarwal of Motorola financial services and we're talking all things markets we discussed banking we discussed I.T and uh now we want to talk about manufacturing there is a third leg which we've been waiting for so long um for it to start to fire right spottering kind of starts but uh not very steady although hopes are always very high there but there is always some segments within the manufacturing space which are doing well I mean take defense take Railways over the last two or three years which have done extremely well what is your sense from there you see the biggest part of manufacturing in day is Automotive you know uh so whether it is cars drugs or motorcycles scooters and that is basic Transportation you know I mean so that's where I think the high incidence of your GST and all that kind of hinders the immediate demand pickup but I think that demand has also picked up car cars have done very well I believe from March even the two wheelers have picked up reasonably well I mean let's see whether I believe April May is also going to be good so I think Automotive is picking up without Automotive picking up see there are only two things housing starts and your auto so both of them are the driver of Victory I don't see any household house itself and then the car rest always like a daily culture so uh housing demand is very good real estate is very good so all the components of real estate whether cement steel you have plywood your paints and whole lot of things you know whatever goes into building a house filling the house building materials so that's one and that's all manufacturing so ties and all so I think that should pick up as we go forward as a interest rate subside uh stabilizes or starts going down little bit so that's where I think bright spot is or your automotive automotive has one problem this EV versus IC you know that confusion is on who is going to Transit successfully so multiples will be in question you know but I think earnings will because money is not there anyway money is there in I see so in transition to EV in China and Europe has become very fast but in India is still very slow so cash flow will be definitely coming to and look at the capex announcement by maruti they have talked about third plant coming up so that shows a you know demand build up because that's a aspirational Manufacturing Company housing their real estate I mean contractors Builders basically what's your we had the management of load up with us recently because they were talking their book but they basically said that we are in the second or the third year of what is going to be a longer than usual real estate upcycle do you do you believe that to be true yeah I mean we're not made money out of any real estate so I'm not but I think this is almost a lost ticket for them so it must last because ultimately housing needs are there everybody needs house there's so much of gap between uh the housing stock and demand so clearly uh if and here the interest rate is very important if by chance we can give interested little lower then say today say seven half eight percent if that can come down by even 100 basis point I think this uh this run on demand for housing that will keep building up and this is where again this rupee dollar is going to play a role if you keep losing four percent it does play into the inflation if that becomes zero uh you imagine you know at least 50 of that will flow into decline of the inflation what about the rural Market are you worried about the rural slowdown extending itself because h2l's volume growth numbers were not very inspiring this time yeah so I spoke to one or two companies which are catering to they're saying that basic demand is there but anything called discretionary say that's not doing well in the world so is it because of the eye inflation is it because of the high taxation incidence is it because of uh just that construction transfers are not picked up fully you know because lot of rural income is not only agriculture it's also what transfers go from Urban centers to the rural centers so maybe trickle down may take another six months or so because dislocation of dislocation because of covet was very very deep so I would think that it's a trickle down and maybe another six months and good Monsoon I think that will do the trick here I'm going to ask you a couple of questions on the floors I recall you telling us the FIS they're having it easy getting out of the market whether when they have to come back it's going to be painful at higher level so you know that or that seems to have played out as well in the last month or so we have seen more buy numbers on the FIS yeah so I already see the F5 flow is moving and also with regard to the domestic flows now you're getting fixed income at seven eight percent you know so do you think there is a chance that domestic flows cool down a little bit yeah it has definitely cooled down because all the guys who came I mean they've not lost money because of steadiness of the market but they've also not made money not made money yeah and the guys who went to fixed income they didn't have to go through up and downs and they still made 70 yeah so as the market takes off from here and goes up by 20 then again the power of equity will come back in the sense that it is at 12 instead of six percent so that assertion to the new set of people is yet to happen so the index has to go from current uh 17 18 000 to more like twenty twenty two thousand whenever it happens maybe next year year after that it will happen uh that I don't have any doubts so when that happens then people realize that here this is where the money is made yeah so uh and real fun will be when something happens in the earnings growth picks up to 20 then you see rupees stable and earnings growth is 20 and P multiple is also 20.
because next year talking about 900 anywhere between 25 to 50. so then you are at eighteen thousand so you are talking about less than 20 for 24 yes which is kind of a reasonable so then fi is also pile so lot of things are converging into what can happen in next one here so that's what we're hoping let's get to the earnings at uh they've been a little subdued yes if you look at Asset Management asset and wealth management Capital markets numbers have been on a year-on-year basis uh subdued home finance is the one which seems to be the bright spot yeah tell us what are the thoughts of all the businesses uh we had a bit of problem in last two three years in Housing Finance now with all the you know what is happening to the entire financial sector this is also picked up and now we are out of the woods I would say there is a 50 60 growth in the profits and it is looking good in the years ahead so I think that is one achievement the rest of the businesses are stable actually the twin engine you know like one is a operating business another is the Investment Portfolio Investment Portfolio is 100 Equity so last year when the market was flat broadly portfolio has remain stable so there is no accrual because of that which is very 60 70 of the balance sheet is there whereas the earning side has done four five percent higher only all put together so clearly my net worth has grown about uh 12 to 15 percent in the current year from 5600 has gone to 62.50 and the moment the second engine also works in next year or year after then you will see the I think the last eight years compounded growth in the net worth has been more like 25 24 25 so I think those rates will come back but current air is not matching with that all right quick final question then on the index itself you know with a one year Horizon will be at 19 500 16 500 or do you think we consolidate at these levels will be higher I don't know how higher so it says that's a safe answer yeah yeah I mean he also mentioned that on the 700 points higher no or no 1500 500 points ago so which one do you want to go for a thousand five hundred higher I would think so because see once one year is negative then you have you have longer you underperform that 12 is getting accumulated so I would think 15 17 it is ready for a move redeemable preferences so if you don't pay now you're going to get it later on the investment book at Mozilla I mean anything you you've added anything uh no it's same I'm a public and private some kind of a split is there so that continues Public Market side and anything anything uh because you keep evaluating opportunities yeah no no nothing uh directly yes it's all going into in fact uh last year accretion to the uh Investment Portfolio is low because of this all these regulatory changes that is taking a lot of free cash flow from the operating side into the businesses and these new age businesses you had a strong view I mean things like zomato Etc how's the view panning now because I think worst is behind yeah worst is behind I mean we have seen peak of uh pessimism and I think some kind of uh uh I would not say optimism but some kind of sensitivity is prevailing and even managements are going for faster road to profit and they are struggling to they're not used to showing profit so so they have to work extra hard to change the track and instead of losing money at a cost of little bit of growth they have to make the model more profitable absolutely it's a pleasure speaking with you as always thank you very much for dropping by and we hope you can make it a regular feature thanks very much uh well that's ramji Agarwal uh Chief at motor rules for financial services on all things markets and of course earnings for the fourth quarter from the company as well uh it's a good buy from all of us here uh Rima Nigel me and the dire team on Bazaar uh thanks very much for watching more coming up in just a bit foreign
Comments 0