저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
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결론: 연준은 이번에 금리 동결(일시 정지)할 가능성이 크며, 주식시장은 당분간 횡보하다 연말에 S&P500 4,600을 향해 오를 수 있다는 견해. 금리 정책: 연준은 3월 FOMC에서 25bp 인상 여부를 두고 고민할 수 있으나 은행 위기 때문에 인상 후에도 일시 정지를 선언할 것으로 봄. 현재 단기금리는 제한적(restrictive) 수준이며 장단기 금리 역전이 이를 뒷받침함. 부채 위기: 미국 부채한도 문제가 조만간(6월 초 무렵) 위기로 부각될 수 있으나 결국 해결될 것으로 봄. 다만 이 과정에서 주식이 일시적으로 눌릴 수 있음. 주식시장: 2022년 10월 저점이 바닥이라고 판단. 센티먼트가 2009년 3월 수준으로 비관적이었다는 근거. 단기적으로는 4,000 이상에서 횡보 전망, 연말에는 S&P500 4,600 방향 상승 전망. 유동성: 매트 킹(Citi)의 유동성 급감 우려에는 크게 동의하지 않음. M2는 팬데믹 이전 추세선보다 약 1조 달러 높고 요구불예금에도 여전히 많은 유동성이 남아 있다고 봄. 은행 예금금리 인상 압박은 있으나 경제 회복력이 인상적이라고 평가. 출연자 전망 요약: 금리 동결, 주식 상승 여력, 부채 이슈는 일시적 충격이라는 낙관적 입장.
다듬은 글
research he's joining in now yeah good to have you with us here you once uh sort of called fomc the Federal open mouth committee although uh you won't have open routes this week because the FED is in the blackout period now all the way to the meeting in May uh what's your sense though I mean the market is fully priced back that uh you know 25 basis point rate hike in so uh you know are we are we going to go into it like that or should we expect further changes what's your sense well I I think that uh there's a case to be made for the fomc when they get down uh together and discuss the latest data that they might actually conclude that because of the banking crisis they don't want to exacerbate it and so they may not raise the FED funds rate by 25 basis points and may make a very convincing case that because of the banking crisis the federal funds rate is restrictive enough and doesn't need to be raised anymore on the other hand they may uh just go ahead and and do the 25 basis points because they've been talking about five and a quarter percent on the FED funds rate for some time and in in that event I think they will still say that they're going to pause uh I'd be pretty shocked if they didn't pause in the face of the the banking situation uh I think the market would take that pretty well the problem is we now have a deficit debt problem a crisis about to occur it looks like it's going to come sooner than expected maybe in early June okay so you're expecting a pause this time around and the bigger issue really is a debt crisis uh that the U.S is perhaps staring at so do you think this could be the end of the rate tightening cycle both globally in the US as well as in Emerging Markets like India I do think that uh we're at restrictive levels now on uh short-term rates I think the Bond Market agrees with that because we have an inverted yield curve certainly in the United States and inverted yield curves are usually an indication that fixed income investors think that it's all right to buy a bond at a yield below say a two-year yield because if the FED continues to raise interest rates we'll get a financial crisis a credit crunch into recession so we're kind of in that zone right now and the question is is the Fed really going to want to push it over the edge or are they going to come to the same conclusion that I think a lot of us are coming to and that is no Moss as they say in Spanish enough's enough uh you've you've got the restrictive now if you want to keep it there that would be consistent with what you've been saying but what about Equity market so you saw a bit of a bounce I think you have been maintaining that stance that the laws that we saw in October 2022 that will hold out you think we could revisit that and still hold on to that view the the October the October low last year uh was the low in my opinion and I came to that conclusion because I saw that uh sentiment the bull bear sentiment was as bearish as it was back in March of uh 2009 and I surely things aren't as bad as that but right now I think the Market's going to continue to trade sideways maybe north of 4 000 and uh again I think on on the bullish side uh will be the notion that the FED is done for a while we'll take a pause even after a 25 basis point increase but if they increase it I think they're going to announce the pause but on the other hand we've got this uh that ceiling crisis which is coming to a head rather shortly but I think that'll get resolved as well but it may take a little bit more drama and the kind of drama that depresses stocks for a while um uh you know we had uh add a view from City last week Matt King of City basically uh talking about how he thinks uh when he described it as you know he expects a pressure to suddenly drop for markets because he he thinks I mean you know liquidity is still winding it down in the backdrop although we're not talking about it very much the balance feds balance sheet is still shrinking uh Etc how much do you kind of how much would you uh agree with that point of view well uh not a great deal because when I look at for example the money supply the M2 measure it's still about a trillion dollars above the pre-pandemic uh trend line the same thing goes for the uh the demand deposits there's still a tremendous amount of liquidity left over from the binge that we had as a result of the pandemic uh and as we know there's a lot of liquidity that's sloshing around in the system right now it's looking for better yields from the banks the banks are going to be are being forced to raise their interest rates um many of them are protected because their loan yields are also going up uh but all in all I mean certainly we don't have the kind of liquidity we had when when we had quantitative easy and when the FED funds rate was Zero but all in all I think that the resilience of the economy is really quite impressive and I think they're still uh plenty of liquidity to keep the economy growing and to uh allow the stock market to go higher not immediately but I think later this year I think go see the market moving towards 4 600 on the S P 500 okay on that very optimistic note we will end this discussion and he had any thanks a lot for joining in uh so yes these are volatile times but the market could move Higher by the end of the year and perhaps there's a pause coming from the fed that's the word on the market so let's slip into a quick break a lot of numbers to track this morning apart from ICICI Bank and Reliance there's also names like lodha that reported their uh you know numbers you have other companies like sun Pharma and focus as well all on all of that and more coming up in just a bit thank you
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