Tom Lee: The Future of Markets Comes Down to Two Things

요약 보기

중동(이란) 관련 진전으로 유가·금리가 고점에서 하락했으나 휘발유·디젤 가격 상승 여지와 글로벌 석유제품 부족 가능성을 경고. 이번 주 Fed 연설·PCE 등 데이터 집중. 미국이 컴퓨팅·에너지·인구 측면에서 우위로 주도적 성과를 내고 있으며, 한국은 AI 하드웨어 파트너로 최근 중국 대비 초과수익 전환 중이라는 주장.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Before I start today's webinar, uh just a reminder that this coming Thursday, May 28th at 2:00 p.m. is our monthly macro update and top stock ideas webinar. Over the weekend, uh it did look like there was progress made with regard to Iran. Uh it's evident in oil prices and yields, both of which uh declined and declined from pretty high levels.

02. Um Now, that being said, we do have to keep in mind that even as the front end of oil prices come down, there are still uh higher gasoline and diesel prices ahead. [clears throat] In fact, uh around the world, there's going to be potential shortages of petroleum products later in the year. So, uh it is something to be mindful of as we move through the year.

03. As for macro, there is a lot of data coming this week, mostly Tuesday and Thursday. Um and uh on Thursday, we're going to be getting uh well, number one, the macro update webinar, but also April core PCE, and we'll have some more commentary as we get closer to that date. There's also a lot of Fed speak this week, uh but Kevin Warsh is not speaking.

04. I think one of the things that we've been fielding is questions from investors about why the US is outperforming now. And uh I think it really comes down to this tweet by Elon Musk, where he points out that in the future, it's not really dollars that are the key currency, it's going to be mass and energy.

05. And I think it's well, I've his way of saying that basically all that matters today is compute and energy. And if we look at that, it might explain why the US is leading. For instance, if we do a breakdown of comparative advantage, the US has a an advantage in population growth of prime age workers.

06. Regionally speaking, it's just the US and Latin America. And then if we look at compute, there's only three regions that really have a lead here. It's US, China, and Korea. And then when we factor in energy independence or ability basically ability to have surplus energy, uh it's it's really the US because we're a net exporter, um and China is a net importer.

07. Korea and Europe are net importers. So, basically, when you look at who's got an advantage across all three really important vectors, it's the US. And maybe second is is South Korea who because they're an important AI hardware partner here. As you can see, Korea for last most of the past decade has been underperforming the rest of the world, but has recently started to outperform.

08. In fact, if we look at these three regions lined up, US, China, and Korea, you can see this underperformance Korea was kind of mirroring China, but only in the past year has Korea broken out. Mhm.