저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
시장은 위험선호(risk-on) 국면이며 혁신 자산과 비트코인의 상승 추세가 유지되고 있다고 주장. 서클(Circle) 상장과 뉴럴링크 딜의 과열 청약을 근거로 들었다. 비트코인 고래 보유량 증가와 해시리본 스트레스 신호를 제시하며 중장기적으로 큰 상승 가능성을 언급. 무역수지 반등과 수입 급감을 GDP 성장에 대한 재고 적체형 위험으로 해석하고, 서비스업 ISM에서 수요 탄력성 하락을 근거로 관세 전가 유인이 약해진다고 봄. 미국 연방부채 누적과 이자 부담을 지적하며 비트코인을 재정 불안 시기의 헤지 수단으로 설명.
다듬은 글
the Bitcoin to gold. Uh this up trend has not been broken. Uh again, this aligns with the the net bullish risk on uh uh kind of market that we think we're in. And uh and I I guess you can call the markets uh anti-fragile, which is uh which is a description used in Bitcoin. It's been able to withstand all kinds of turmoil and uh and we think uh the the markets the equity markets um are are following Bitcoin in terms in this regard.
Bitcoin Zel. Kathy Wood breaks down the Trumpon feud, key market signals, and innovation's role in finance. stick around to explore more. And I think there are two uh events that have happened in uh really the last week or so uh that suggest that risk on is is where we are moving and a market rewarding innovation.
Um uh one is the Neurolink deal and uh that was so oversubscribed. Uh and you know the the the animal spirits are alive and well uh certainly in the private markets but also in the public markets. the Circle deal um which uh we we had been monitoring circle uh for a very long time and I do have a little story there.
Jeremia Jeremy Lair uh who's the CEO of Circle. He was was at the uh World Economic Forum uh technology conference in 2016 as was I. Uh we were both asked to do different panels uh and we sat in on each other's panels. uh my panel in 2016 was uh about uh Bitcoin and uh a company named Transferwise was there I think it's since gone public fintech of the day uh and more traditional financial institutions were weighing in on this topic and there was one uh Chinese Bitcoin miner there at the time little did he know he'd be shut down early in the next year But um uh I'll never forget we were the two Bitcoin uh advocates uh on the panel.
And at the end of uh the at the end of that session, the broadcast journalist who was moderating our panel turned to the audience and we were in a round circle. It was definitely a round table. uh and there might have been 500 people there and said who thinks that Bitcoin is is going to be around in the next 10 years and only one hand in the audience went up and that was Jeremy.
Uh so we definitely bonded over that event. uh and uh so we are delighted and um and congratulate them for their amazing debut in the public markets this week. I think in the first few days it the circle is up three to fourfold and uh this gives us confirmation that animal spirits are back and the fact that an apple could be down 18% I think it is this year uh having really been the leader of the megate tech group is forcing investors to take a look at other exposures.
Bitcoin whales and miners are giving off strong signals about the market's next move, and it could be big. Whale holdings have climbed to 3.57 million BTC, creeping close to the 2021 peak of 3.74 million. This rise signals growing confidence from institutions and wealthy investors who seem to view every dip as a golden buying opportunity.
As whales absorb supply, they provide a solid foundation for price support and potentially set the stage for a sustained rally. At the same time, minor data tells a different but equally revealing story. The hash ribbons indicator has flashed a minor stress signal, which often leads to short-term selling pressure as minor float Bitcoin to cover costs.
While this can briefly push prices down, it also tends to clear out weaker miners and tighten supply conditions that historically precede major price surges. Last week saw some drama as Bitcoin briefly dipped below $11,000, triggered in part by the Elon Musk Donald Trump feud, which caused nearly $1 billion in liquidations.
But Bitcoin rebounded quickly above $15,000, proving that buying strength remains strong. Technicals also show promise with a cup handle pattern suggesting a breakout. If BTC crosses $18,000 with whales accumulating, miners under pressure, and futures interest rising, Bitcoin could soon punch through toward $120,000.
On the next page, you can see the the most rapid uh bounce in the trade uh balance ever in one month uh in a month period of time. Uh so imports collapsing I think they were down 20% in one month is the reason. uh there was uh huge imports to avoid tariffs. That was why we got to such a crazy deficit level.
It's coming back. Uh and let's see what happens here. Um but what's interesting about this the imports falling uh that imports rising is a drag on GDP growth. imports falling is a benefit to GDP growth. The question is where do they land? Are they pulled through in consumption uh or do they land in inventories?
If they land in inventories and we think that's a more likely more of them will land in inventories than will be consumed um then that's not a healthy source of growth. Um and here you can see this this was a very interesting report from this week. This is ISM uh of services. Now services are a much bigger part of the economy than our goods.
But here's you here you can see price elasticity of demand really taking hold. Uh prices they've tried to push those prices up. That's in the purple line. And look what's happening to units and uh you know in you services rarely fall unless we are in a recession and you can see um evidence of a kind of rolling recession even in this metric starting in 2022.
Uh so we think this response you know units falling is going to uh is going to take away the incentives the incentive for companies to continue to push tariffs through in pricing. The US federal debt has hit a staggering $34 trillion jumping by 11 trillion in just 4 years in all-time record pace. What's more alarming is that interest payments alone now make up half of the federal deficit.
This escalating debt crisis is beginning to worry even the top names on Wall Street. Jimmy Diamond, CEO of Jeep Morgan Chase, didn't mince words when he said, "It's a big deal. It is a real problem." Amid this mounting pressure, Bitcoin and all coins like Ether Room, Salana, and Cordana are quietly positioning themselves as lifeboats.
According to a fresh report from Weiss Ratings, if the Treasury market buckles under the weight of new debt issuance, the Federal Reserve may have no choice but to step in firing up the money printers once again. That could lead to a flood of fliat currency, weakening the dollar and sending crypto prices soaring.
This scenario paints Bitcoin not just as a speculative asset, but as a safe haven during fiscal instability. Even GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen sees the writing on the wall. Having acquired over $500 million in Bitcoin, he calls it a powerful hedge against inflation. If Bitcoin truly evolves into digital gold, the upside potential could be beyond what most expect. .
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