What did Michael Burry mean exactly by warning "This time is different"? Why is long bond TLT sold?

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결론: 마이클 배리의 'This time is different' 경고는 연준이 금리 인하(피벗)에 나서도 주식시장이 2001년처럼 급락할 수 있으며, 이번 하락장은 인플레이션형 약세장이라 아직 끝나지 않았다는 취지다. [배리의 경고 해석] - 연준 피벗 기대로 올랐던 랠리는 힘을 잃고 있으며, AI 섹터만 예외라는 진단. - 과거 2001년처럼 연준이 경기침체를 확인하고 금리를 내리면 증시는 바닥을 찍은 뒤 상승하는 구조가 아니라 즉각 급락할 수 있다는 주장. [채권·금리 시장] - 2년-10년 금리 역전폭이 1980년대 이후 가장 커졌고, 채권시장이 연준의 과도한 긴축을 경고하는 신호라고 해석. - 장기채 ETF TLT가 매도된 것은 채권시장이 추가 금리 인상을 반영하기 시작했기 때문이라는 주장. [고용·경기] - 신규 실업수당 청구가 19.6만 건으로 예상보다 높아 강한 고용 보고서와 엇갈림. - 옐런의 '실업률이 낮으면 침체는 없다'는 발언에 대해 과거 1970년, 2020년 사례처럼 실업률 최저점 이후에도 침체가 왔다고 반박. [디플레이션·달러] - CPI가 마이너스로 전환될 수 있다는 배리의 트윗을 언급. - 달러 강세는 미국 주식과 역상관관계이며, 금리 인상 기대로 달러가 반등 중이라고 설명. [기업 부채 위험] - 전환사채(Death spiral convertible) 개념 설명. 약한 기업들의 디폴트가 신용위기로 번질 수 있다는 우려. - 비욘드미트 사례: 매출 성장 마이너스, 매출총이익률 음수, 현금흐름 악화에도 시총이 과도하게 남아 있다고 주장. [종목·자산 전망] - 엔비디아, 테슬라 등 AI 관련 대형주는 자금 유입이 이어진다고 언급. - 구글은 AI 챗봇 실수 이후 매도 대상이 되었다고 설명. - 금리 피벗 전까지 추가 하락 가능성을 시사하며 이익 실현을 권고. [출연자 전망] - 연준 최종금리(terminal rate)에 아직 도달하지 않았으며, 그 이후에야 랠리 가능성이 열린다는 입장. - 6% 수준의 인플레이션이 여전히 문제이며 달러는 더 오를 수 있다고 봄. [리스크] - 금리 인상 장기화, 기업 디폴트 확산, 은행 부실 가능성이 주요 위험으로 제시됨.

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01. what does Michael burry mean exactly by warning this time is different the bond market just figured out the hidden meaning today I'm going to tell you what Michael burry actually meant when he tweeted this time is different this New Year rally is losing its Steam except for AI sector because of openai's chat GPT according to chat GPT the stock market will crash on February 15th the day after January CPI report the market expects a 6.2 percent I think we will get a lower number so there is opportunity in the markets before the FED Cuts rates the stock market is totally freaking out selling Google Shares because their AI Bard made a mistake and Google searches Monopoly is being disrupted so the big boys are buying up big name AI stocks like Nvidia and Tesla Innovation and disruption is totally real and affecting the market in a big way art of investing is knowing the competitive landscape of Industry you are into and pick the disrupter if you want to know what's in my personal War chest of a portfolio you can become my patreon today what is death spiral convertible what does Michael burry mean by warning this time is different bond Disney just announced they are cutting 7 000 jobs and the layoffs are finally showing in government data which according to Powell is very high quality data so hmm anyways initial jobless claims went higher than expected to a hundred and ninety six thousand and continuing jobless claims when hired to the stock market noticed that kind of contradict last week's blowout jobs report so it opened higher but sold off during the day the bond market obviously likes to see the weakness in the economy this makes two to ten year yield curve inversion reaches the most extremely inverted since 1980s that is the bond market telling the Fed you are hiking it too much and you are going to cause so much pain on the deflation side one CPI turns negative as Michael burry just tweeted it's time for the means to look up what's death spiral convertible death spiral death describes a type of convertible bond that forces the creation of an ever increasing number of shares inevitably leading to a steep drop in the price of shares in general convertible dap is a bond that yields interest but also can be converted to a number of stock shares it's a hybrid security with some attributes of both a bond and a stock the type of bond that can cause the death spiral effect is a convertible Bond that can be converted to a set dollar value paid in shares as a Stock's price increases substantially investors in conventional convertible Shares are likely to seize the opportunity to convert their bonds into fast growing stocks however a stock price decline motivates the owner of fixed value convertible bonds they can get more shares of stock when they make the conversion but this process by definition increases the number of shares in the market and that forces prices even lower the death spiral effect occurs as more and more fixed value convertible Bond owners convert their bonds into stocks as their value drops lower and lower theoretically the dance viral effect can continue until the stock is at or near zero value this type of bond is sometimes issued by a company that desperately needs cash a company that seeks death spiral financing probably has no other way to raise money to survive I think the next Crisis is going to be a debt crisis as the FED is pushing the interest rate limit too much for the upside this will make smaller weaker businesses default on their debt which will affect the banks that give them the loan Banks just like Credit Suisse I think bury is thinking the same thing as the small unprofitable company like Beyond Mead in 2021 they took out a one billion dollar convertible senior notes node holders May convert their notes at any time to cash or shares based on the recent trading price of the stock within last year alone beyond meat has burned through over half a billion dollars they only have 390 million on their balance sheet now and 1.2 billion dollars of debt they still traded Rich from evaluation of 8 billion dollars in 2021 down to one billion dollars today their gross margin just turned negative last year it's actually negative 18 percent they have negative Revenue growth they can't make any profit no free cash flow how are they still trading at a price to sales of 2.9 today and valued at 1 billion dollars this really shows there is still a lot of air in this bubble this really proves this is not the market bottom not even close so what does Michael burry mean when he says this time is different he is saying that people are expecting the FED to Pivot meaning cut rates because the economy is getting weaker and weaker and the FED wants to achieve a soft landing and a two percent Target but as soon as the FED Cuts rates to stimulate Lending the stock market will crash immediately like 2001.

02. because if the recession was called by the Fed the stock market will already be bottomed out also on the topic of recession this week when asked if she saw a recession on the horizon treasury secretary Janet Yellen replied recessions don't happen when unemployment rate is at a 53-year low however it just so happens the two recessions took place when unemployment was at a record low one was exactly 53 years ago in 1970 and the other was three years ago in 2020 currently due to lockdowns mass layoffs and early retirements job openings relative to job Seekers are still at an all-time high more importantly real wages are deeply negative so you don't need a lot of unemployed people to start a recession all you need is a lot of broke people which are all these bear Market rally is for make people broker so don't be greedy and take profit right now we are not even close for the FED to hit the terminal rate yet this is why TLT was sold off today the bond market is finally pricing in more rate hikes yes it's that slow when it comes to government they take their time they say the FED is following the bond market what does the bond market follow the high quality data from the government as Powell said which could be controlled internally inside government and discussed it with the Fed over brunch so the interest rate really is about expectation from the Fed this time is different because in 2001 there is no inflationary bear Market as we are having right now dot-com crash and financial crisis crash are both deflationary crash and bear Market as Thursday's Market action from both stock and bond market it tells us one thing that this inflationary bear Market is not over and six percent inflation is still a problem and dollar still can go higher the dollar tends to have an inverse relationship with U.S stocks so when the U.S currency Rises equities usually fall that's because a higher Greenback squeezes companies overseas income as they are forced to convert weaker foreign currencies into a stronger dollar the U.S currency which hit a nine-month low earlier in February has since rebounded by more than two percent as the Federal Reserve stands ready to push for higher interest rates to combat inflation Rising interest rates tend to support a currency's value because they attract foreign investors seeking higher yields as the bond market and the FED decide their terminal rate once we reach the terminal rate the party is over or shall we say the after party just started depending on which side of the trade you are on again if you want to know the exact side of trade in my portfolio and when to make a move all you need to do is become my good boy on my patreon and this is my collaboration both with all my incredible clients um the book is called it's already yours adversity equals success such an amazing book and my book Born To Shine