저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
Schiff은 금 강세장이 초기 단계이며 기관·개인의 신규 수요와 중앙은행 매입 확대가 이어질 것이라 본다. 연준이 12월 QT 종료 후 2026년 QE 재개 가능성이 높고, 경기지표 악화로 추가 금리인하가 예상된다고 주장한다. 비트코인 거품은 꺼지는 중이며 금으로 자금이 이동할 수 있다고 본다. 달러 약세와 미국 주식 비중 축소, 글로벌·신흥국 주식으로의 로테이션을 강조한다. 금광주는 원자재 비용 하락과 금값 상승으로 수익성이 좋고 M&A 증가가 예상된다고 한다.
다듬은 글
I just think we're early in a broader bull market that, you know, mainstream Wall Street investors, both institutional and retail, are just finally noticing gold and deciding that they should make it a part of their portfolio. And this is after, you know, gold is up 11 12x this century. The Dow is down, you know, close to 70% priced in gold since peaking in 1999.
So gold has outperformed the markets yet investors haven't even noticed that really until just recently. And I don't think that the fact that they've now decided that gold should be included in a portfolio whereas before it had no place in a portfolio. I don't think that is going to change because oh my god now gold's 3,900 and not 4,300.
I think you're going to start to see more accumulation of gold from investors who never bought any. And I think the central banks that have been the drivers for the past couple years, I think they're actually going to pick up the pace of their gold buying, I think more central banks that weren't buying gold are now going to start buying as well.
So, I think there's a lot of new demand coming from gold, and I don't see a lot of new supply. I mean, there's some, but not nearly enough. Yeah. Well, we just got a rate cut by the Fed, and that didn't seem to be the trigger. I think we're going to get another rate cut despite the fact that Pal kind of said it wasn't a lock.
You know, the markets kind of priced it in and he kind of pushed back against that. But at the end of the day, I think there's going to be another cut because I think the economic data is going to continue to disappoint. Now, we're not getting as much data as normal because of the government shutdown, but it's possible that they end that government shutdown and we get a deluge of bad economic data that could be a catalyst for another move up, you know, in the price of gold as people start to, you know, factor that in.
And the Fed at its last FOMC meeting announced that QT is officially ending in December. So, I think another big catalyst will be the the launch of the next round of quantitative easing, which I believe is coming. I thought it would have actually happened already. So, I'm kind of surprised they were able to make it through the entire year without doing it, but I think 2026 will be the year that they, you know, crank up the presses again, especially if they continue to see a weakness in the longer end of the bond market.
And then, of course, you do have, you know, some court decisions, you know, on the tariffs, on the firing of Lisa Cook. I think that could have implications for the dollar and for gold. I mean, I guess it's about 50/50 that they can hold off on QE. It kind of depends on what happens, but I think if you start to see a big move down in the stock market or something that might scare the administration, there'll be a lot more pressure and we'll see.
I mean, today, you know, we're getting a, you know, a decent decline in stocks and, you know, that could be a bit of a leading indicator that, you know, people are starting to take risk off and it may not just be crypto. It may be a broaderbased riskoff trade which also could see some money flowing back into gold as a safe haven investment.
And I think as the air comes out of the Bitcoin bubble and people begin to question the digital gold narrative, which they should because it's just a meme, to the extent that people wake up to the reality that Bitcoin isn't digital gold, well then maybe they'll buy real gold instead. And so there could be a source of some extra gold buying from people who either get out of Bitcoin or instead of buying Bitcoin decide to buy the real gold, right, instead of some fake version of it.
Well, I mean, I think things are pretty bad. I mean, if you look at the most recent polls on Trump's approval, his approval on the economy is the lowest it's been of either of his presidencies. He only has a 30% approval rating. So, that's not even like all the Republicans. and over 60% disapprove of his handling of the economy, right?
Just the economy. That's supposed to be his strong suit. And you know, Trump is going around, you know, touting how we have the strongest economy in the history of the country, right? We have the hottest economy in the whole world. And he contrasts that to the Biden economy, which, you know, we had last year.
And he said that was the worst economy in the history of America. So apparently in less than a year we've gone from the worst economy in the history of America to the greatest economy in the history of America. Yet the voters don't approve of his handling of the economy. So somebody's not, you know, telling the truth.
Either the public loves the economy, but they're afraid to be honest with the polls. Yeah. I mean, that's one area where I trust the public. I don't trust their opinion on a lot of things, but I trust them to know how they're doing themselves because when they're asked about the economy, they're not talking about the overall unemployment rate or influal circumstances.
And so they're answering that question based on what they're experiencing in their own lives. You know, are things getting better for them financially? Are things getting worse? So people know, you know, their own circumstances. And so if they're telling the pollsters, I don't approve of Trump's handling of the economy, it's because they're worse off than they were before he was elected.
And so therefore, we can't have this economic boom that the president is claiming credit for. Because if things were as good as he says, it would be reflected in the opinions of those people unless the polls are completely skewed and they're not random and they've been rigged. But, you know, I think it's more likely that Trump is just talking, right?
that he's just promoting his presidency the way he used to promote his stakes. You know, they're the greatest. He's a salesman. And so, he exaggerates. I think that's a nice word for it. I think most people, especially retirees or near retirees, need to understand the risk of inflation and the the valuation of the dollar and they need to do something about it.
you know, they should be buying gold and silver, you know, and they should have an investment portfolio that reflects the reality of what's going to happen to the dollar over time and the value of US assets. And people need to invest globally. I mean, we've been investing for clients in international dividend paying stocks.
If you look at our core dividend payer strategy, year-to- date, it's up about 50%. Which is a phenomenal return. This is probably the best year we've had in the 11 or 12 years that I've run the strategy. It's about triple the S&P. You know, most years the S&P has outperformed the strategy, but now the strategy is destroying S&P.
And I think this is the beginning of a major rotation out of US stocks back into global stocks. So, I don't think what happened with our strategy in 2025 is going to be a one-off year. I think it's the beginning of a trend that's going to last for many, many years. And so people should recognize this change and start moving money out of the US stock market and investing in the markets that we're investing in in our global strategies because the valuations are much better, the dividend yields are much higher and you get the tailwind of a weakening dollar which I think is going to strengthen over time and that's going to be one of the main reasons that foreigners are going to start pulling out of our markets because they're going to have a headwind.
you know, they're going to be losing on the foreign exchange and that's going to be subtracting from the returns on US assets. So, they're going to want to divest and it's been foreign buyers at the margin that have really helped power the US market for the past 10 years. And now they're going to be selling instead of buying.
Look, I think that gold stocks, one of the big problems they've had has been a lack of conviction in the investment community on the future price of gold. people have been very bearish on gold and so it's been difficult for gold companies to raise capital and therefore they've had to agree to not such great terms to raise money but I think as the general investment community has a more benign outlook on the price of gold and it doesn't even have to be that gold prices are going to keep going up just that they're not going to collapse right if we get you know the mainstream to concede that gold's going to be above 3,000 gold companies can make a ton of money I think That's going to open up a lot of capital into the sector to help them develop their projects.
Meanwhile, the projects that are already in production, they're making a ton of money right now. Especially look at oil prices relative to the price of gold. This is the cheapest oil has ever been. I mean, if you can't count like 1 month or 2 months during COVID when oil went negative, but if you throw out that operation, oil is dirt cheap for mining companies.
And even though the dollar has come down this year, it's still relatively high. Normally, when gold is rising, you see the dollar falling. And so that also pressures their wages that are in these other currencies. But their wage costs are not going up. Their energy costs are going down. And the gold price is going through the roof.
So this is a great time for these stocks because for so many years, even though the price of gold was rising, the cost of mining it was rising faster. So they weren't really capturing any gain. But now you've had such a big move in a short period of time. Gold has caught up a bit with those costs. And so now there's a really good margin of safety there.
So I think you know the existing companies are making a lot of money. And I think what's going to happen a lot of these smaller companies is these big companies that are now gushing cash that have underinvested in exploration and development over the last decade. Now they have all this money rather than gambling it on exploration projects.
I think they're going to go shopping and start buying up some of the exhibitors. So, I think you're going to see a lot of M&A in the space and that's going to be good for all these companies because all of a sudden somebody comes in and just pays double the market price to buy the stock and they still look at it as a good deal, you know.
So, I think it's a great time, I think, to be in the industry. But, oh, one more is emerging markets because we have emerging market fund and it's lagged our other equity funds. I think that the emerging markets are really going to start to take off. I think you're going to start to see some rotation out of developed into emerging markets.
If it doesn't start in 2026, it'll start in 2027. But I think there's a good chance it starts next year, especially if we get a big break in the dollar, maybe at the end of this year. The dollar has been rising a bit recently. In fact, the dollar index is now back above 100. That's a headwind a bit.
But if we do get a break in the dollar, which I think is coming, that's going to be a huge catalyst for a big move up in the emerging markets.
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