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Anthropic lost $80.7 billion in 6 months. It's like the entire economy of the state of Alaska. Or, Dan, if you look at it on a regional scale, it's twice the size of Bahrain. Of course, Anthropic says that most of this is non -cash accounting costs, but how do you justify a valuation of over a trillion dollars with numbers like that?
Look, I think it really comes down to growth. I mean, if you look at how investors are going to evaluate this, what is the growth going to be over the next 2, 3, 4 years? Are there, you know, extremely expensive developments going on here? Undoubtedly. And this, ultimately, will be a matter of contention for investors.
But you're talking about how, while everything is being rebuilt, a new economy is being created for consumers and businesses around the world. It costs money, and that's what we see; and that's why it's so important not only from an IPO perspective, but also because they have to eventually show profits and growth in the coming years.
This is where the moment of truth comes for Anthropic. Another interesting point, Dan: the company's valuation talk has also dropped from around $2 trillion to around $1.5 trillion in a week. How much do you think Anthropic is actually worth? I think 1.5 to 1.7 is probably the level at which the initial appetite for the assessment will be.
I think, as we saw with SpaceX, there's also a lot of volatility after the lockup period ends and when trading begins. And I think when things start to develop, it will be important how successfully they hold a roadshow to explain to investors what the growth trajectory looks like. What does the order book look like?
I think this is what investors will rely on the most. But it's also a long-term view : can this really become something that reaches two, three trillion in the coming years? But at the initial stage, the range probably corresponds to overall demand, these are the numbers that are rumored and that is what investors think.
Given everything you've seen so far, Dan, would you buy the stock in the IPO? I think I know the answer. Well, listen, I think that at a valuation of two trillion, you 're not necessarily a buyer. At a valuation of 1.5 trillion, depending on how they ultimately set the price. I think you 'll see strong demand.
I think this is very important for the broader technology market , as we see a stressful period, as was the case with CoreWeave and concerns about raising debt capital. But if we talk about the foundation, the very heart of this movement , it all starts with Anthropic, and I would definitely buy their shares at the start.
Of course. So, tell me about some of the risks that Anthropic has highlighted, because, Dan, I've reviewed their prospectus myself. I don't think I've seen anything like this before. In the documents , the company essentially warns of catastrophic or existential risks to humanity. Have you ever seen such a risk factor during an IPO, and how should investors assess it?
Yes, I mean, these are risks that are somewhat like something out of a science fiction movie , right? That is, when you look at them. And I think that's exactly what will make investors nervous . Just as we've seen over the last few months, given Dario's essay and the things they've talked about from a regulatory perspective.
Dan, I think up to this point: what would be the safeguards around these risks? For example, how are they going to monitor these models? Tell us not only about self-regulation, but also about your plans for interaction with the rest of the industry. There is a huge opportunity , a generational opportunity, that we are seeing with the artificial intelligence revolution.
But the risks are real. You can't just downplay them and say it doesn't matter much. They exist, and I think it will be a balancing act not only for Anthropic, but also for the industry and investors, because it all comes down to price. What price are you willing to pay, considering the opportunities, but also the risks?
Mm. And how are you going to resolve this contradiction, because, Dan, about 6 weeks ago, it seems like Dario called on the industry to slow down. Now he is looking to go public. So, is it possible to be a safety-first company and a public company at the same time? It's also interesting to see Anthropic cautiously wording its revenue and profit projections, hinting that profits may come second in a company that brings such immense benefits to humanity.
At least, that's what it looked like in the prospectus. Do you agree with this? Yes, that's a valid point, because it's really an arms race, and they know they can talk about security, but if they let off the gas pedal—look at Meta and Zuckerberg. They are not going to slow down. Like OpenAI. Yes, and I think that for them it will be, in my opinion , a real trap during the development.
But then you remember Dario's essay about us having to slow down. And now an IPO appears. Listen, I think that's the problem: they may talk about trying to slow down and about security, but in reality they understand that now is the time to monetize their efforts, and this is their foundation. And I think these are conflicting signals for investors, but we in the US believe this: if they slow down, China will only continue to accelerate.
I think Anthropic realizes they are trying to carry out a regulatory takeover. It all comes down to monetization with certain safeguards. Dan, is this the peak of AI stock trading? It's only the third inning. This, you know, we're about 15% through this AI revolution. These fist-clenching moments await us .
This is not a peak. This is not a "bubble." This, in my opinion , is just the next stage of the monetization phase of the AI revolution that is happening now, but this is not the peak, in my opinion.
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