Equity and crypto rallies suggest bond-yield surge is transitory: Fundstrat's Tom Lee

요약 보기

3분기 이익 성장률 약 30% 전망이며 이익 성장이 밸류에이션 부담을 상쇄한다고 주장. 10년물 금리 5~6%는 주식에 부담이지만 실질성장이 강하고 인플레가 정점이라 5%는 문제없다고 봄. 미국채 금리 급등은 단기 모멘텀에 따른 일시적 현상으로 보며 나스닥 신고가와 암호화폐 상승이 그 근거. 9월 고용은 월 6만 명으로 둔화돼 경기 과열이 아니라고 평가.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. You see him. Let's start with earnings, because you said that earnings in the third quarter will grow by almost 30%. The counterargument is that the second quarter was peak, and earnings must take into account everything from rising rates to regulation and competition with China. This should be reflected in the forecasts one way or another.

02. Well, both yes and no. I mean, 29% revenue growth in the third quarter— that's really impressive. Maybe half of that will be organic growth. I think there's a misconception that if growth slows, stocks get cheaper. If the S&P can maintain 10% earnings growth forever, the market will grow by 10% per year.

03. So, profits don't necessarily have to grow at an accelerated pace . I think the markets are already skeptical about earnings because the P/E ratio has declined this year. The 2027 earnings forecast at the beginning of the year was 350. Now it is approaching 420. Almost 22% earnings growth, and the market grew by only 12%.

04. So, we see a 10% decline in P/E. There is a nominal and a real yield, but at what point will the stock market start to worry about 10- year bonds yielding above 5%, and perhaps even 6%? I mean, the market doesn't like 10-year bonds yielding 5%, and it certainly won't like 6%. This is huge pressure and competition for profitability compared to stocks.

05. But I think there is a clue. The fact that the Nasdaq is hitting all-time highs and cryptocurrencies are rising suggests that the yield rally may be temporary. So does this mean that markets are already used to rates at 5%? And if the Fed, for example, or the trajectory of rate hikes is measured, is that something the markets can withstand?

06. Yes, 5% is not a problem for the stock market because real economic growth is very strong. I think, in terms of inflation, we are going through its peak. This is roughly the Fed's view, and many economists emphasize the temporary factors currently affecting the CPI. I really think that a 10- year bond yield of 5% doesn't make sense.

07. You just showed a chart where the yield on France's 10-year bonds is 4.8 or 4.5%. How can the cost of US debt be 50 basis points higher than France's? So I think something very strange is happening in the US. You know, obviously there is a short-term momentum against U.S. bonds that is pushing yields up.

08. Again, perhaps that's why the Nasdaq and cryptocurrencies are rising , because they don't see any fixed rates in this. Do the September employment reports indicate that cracks are appearing in the story of the US economy's resilience/exceptionalism? Yes, September employment data to some extent confirmed the general trend.

09. I mean, job growth used to be 200,000 per month. In 2026, it averages about 60,000 per month . I would hardly call this an economic boom. So does the Fed really need to pressure the economy by raising rates three times this year?