저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 톰 리는 조정은 정상적 과정이며 연말 S&P500 8,000 도달을 유지, 반도체·메모리 하락은 매수 기회로 본다. 시장 전망: S&P500은 7,700까지 간 뒤 10~15% 정상 조정 후 연말 8,000 재돌파 3단계 시나리오. 여름 말 10~15% 조정 예상. 빅7은 시장보다 덜 하락할 수 있음. 반도체·메모리: 한국(SK하이닉스, 삼성전자)은 올해 성장으로 아웃퍼폼, 한두 달 매도는 정상. 미국 반도체·메모리·모멘텀주는 과도하게 하락, 하락 시 매수. AI 산업 투자가 수년간 이어지는 한 한국 반도체에 대한 우려는 없다고 봄. SK하이닉스 ADR: 미국 시장 규모와 자본력이 크고, 미국 투자자의 한국 AI 접근성을 높임. 차익거래를 통해 ADR과 본주 가격 괴리가 안정화될 것으로 봄. 한국 vs ADR: 투자자 성향에 따라 다르지만, 메모리·반도체가 AI 스토리의 중심이 아니게 되지 않는 한 하락은 매수 기회. 금·은: 작년 AI 랠리와 나란히 급등, 올해 고점 이후 장기 투자자 차익실현 중. 안전자산 역할을 상실하고 위험자산화. 이란 이슈와 맞물린 로테이션으로 해석. 리스크: 이란 관련 주말 변수, 코스피 약세장 진입 가능성, 조정 시기 지연 가능성.
다듬은 글
The EM perspective I just talked about. Do you think it's just mixed in with the memory deals and the way the market has rethought the companies that supply the tools for chip manufacturing in South Korea, or are they finally realizing that they actually prefer American stocks more than the rest of the world and think the US is unique in all of this?
Well, as you know, if you look at the situation over the last year, emerging markets , especially Korea and Taiwan, have been performing exceptionally well . So investors, even long-term ones, should not be surprised that we see profit-taking or consolidation. So when I look at the bigger picture and the long-term outlook for AI, I'm inclined to believe that this sell-off, while looking significant, is just a normal consolidation within a larger bullish trend.
Consolidation. You recently said that the selling we've been seeing over the last 5-6 weeks in the semiconductor, memory and impulse buying sectors is, in your opinion, excessive. If you look at SK Hynix, they sold off right after their US ADRs did. Do you think this is just a volatile process of finding a "bottom" in this sector?
Yes. Perhaps the best indicator for analysis is the results from the beginning of the year. Korea, SK Hynix and Samsung are showing growth. They definitely outperform other countries. Therefore, in my opinion, it is quite normal to expect a month or even two months of sales. But yes, in my opinion, especially if you look at US semiconductors, memory and momentum stocks , we have overextended ourselves to the downside.
So we would buy on any such dip. What do you think about the SK Hynix ADR story? I know this is just one company, but it largely reflects the story of the entire sector, including AI and HBM. But the fact that this company, which has long been traded on the exchange in South Korea, has decided to list its shares in the US, what does this say about the depth of the US capital market, dollar assets, and the US stock market in general?
I think there are several sides to this story. You know, the US stock market is huge. It is larger than any other stock market in the world. And it is backed by a huge and very wealthy base of American investors who still hold $7 trillion in cash. So, um, and when we look at the story with artificial intelligence, Korea is an incredibly important manufacturing partner for both China and the United States.
And access to this story for American investors was very limited. They could buy the EWI ETF, you know, but now they have a chance to own the stock directly. So I think there will be a mechanical arbitrage that will reflect how demand in the US might correlate with demand in Korea. But this will be an opportunity for institutional index arbitrageurs and other funds to actually stabilize the market and the price difference.
Tom, if you were to make a prediction, should we stick with Korean stocks SK Hynix, or is the risk-reward ratio better for ADRs, especially given that the KOSPI is plunging deeper into a bear market? Um, I think the answer probably depends on which investor I'm talking to, but, you know, unless memory and semiconductors stop being central to the story of AI—and I mean AI, this is a huge industrial construction that's going to take years.
Unless cross-modal substitution emerges for semiconductors and memory, there is no reason to worry about Korea, SK Hynix, or Samsung. So, for me, I think all these drops are a reason to buy. Mm. And continuing on the crypto topic, if you look at some of the alternative assets , like gold and silver, you know, they've all fallen.
I don't know if this is really a general sell-off to see how the situation with Iran develops after the weekend. I'm not entirely sure about this, but when the markets are going through a correction, and you're actually predicting a big correction. I believe we are in for a 10-15% correction sometime at the end of this summer.
How are these assets behaving? Because they did correct while stock markets continued to rise. So, um, you know, again , if we look at it more broadly, gold and silver had significant gains last year. You know , they grew unusually in parallel with the rise of the stock market. And, as you know, there was even a certain mania and belief in a structural deficit around silver.
And since silver and gold prices hit some highs earlier this year, I think investors, especially long-term holders, are locking in profits. So, to me, it's a rotation, as gold and silver have outlived their role as a means of saving. You know, they've turned into risky assets. Um, you know, we think there's a lot of evidence accumulating that the US market is going to have a pretty significant and normal correction later this year.
Uh, that's part of our view that this is a three-phase market, you know, we could hit 7,700 on the S&P, go down 10-15%, which is a normal drawdown, and then go back above 8,000 by the end of the year as the AI story continues to play out. Well, many groups and sectors are already in a state of constant correction, so they can still participate in the decline, but they will not necessarily be its initiators.
So, in my opinion, uh, Tom. I'm inclined to think that, for example, the "Big Seven" Yes. may not fall as much as the broader market.
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