저자: DavidBaron인용,진행자미상 · 외국인
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Baron 측이 테슬라 2030년 주가 $1,200 가능성 언급, 연 15~20% 판매 성장과 차당 $7,000 매출총이익 근거. 캐시 우드 약 6,500만달러 테슬라 매수. 신형 Model 3 롱레인지 인도 예상일이 2~3월에서 4월로 밀린 것을 수요 호조 신호로 해석. Dojo 슈퍼컴에 5억달러 투자(버펄로)를 머스크가 확인. 머스크 경영 복귀를 위한 10가지 제안(자사주 매입 등) 소개. 사이버트럭 생산량 추정 자료와 FSD 표시 논의 포함.
다듬은 글
Ron Baron son David Baron thinks Tesla stock could hit 1,200 per share by 2030 while he may not be growing 50% a year as the company thought this year in a tough environment he's still growing volume by 15 to 20% per year and making a $7,000 per car of gross profit he said that would be more than 6X in six years Ron Baron and his son certainly have done extremely well investing in Tesla stock and this fund has almost $7 billion in assets under management and Tesla's stock is 38.1% of that portfolio so you know they are not just saying these things to get some attention from the media no they actually mean what they say and of course my stop portfolio consists 100% of Tesla stock so feel free to call it a uh Tesla stock portfolio and we are getting some good news actually AR invest Cassy wood bought about $65 Million worth of Tesla stock in the last two days so Kathy Wood certainly remains a Tesla stock bull she did not get scared by the last earnings call and I personally really like this news estimated delivery days for new model 3 long range orders in the US out change to march to April 2024 this change comes just two weeks after changed to February to March from January to February so clearly that signals that demand is good unless there are production issues so this could be bad news but having seen how fast the refresh model 3 scaled in Shanghai I'm pretty sure this is good news James also thinks it is good news and he suspects that demand is high given that Tesla has still not adjusted prices since losing the $7,500 tax credit for the model 3 long range so it's actually really good news because the prices basically went up by quite a bit because people cannot get the tax credit and yet the demand seemingly has increased but if you lease the vehicle then you sort of do get that $7,500 but Tesla never really had high lease rates perhaps that is going to change with this we'll find out when the next deliveries are reported in the beginning of April until then we can only guess and here is some significant news Tesla will invest $500 million to install a dojo super computer in Buffalo New York according to the New York State Governor it will process millions of terabytes of data from its EVS to improve the safety and Engineering of FSD I think Forza is right about this one this will go completely unnoticed and if you think about Tesla Tesla CV business really wasn't recognized until Tesla started scaling the model y only then the stock started rallying big time so until Tesla shows that it can make some serious money from Dojo I don't think it's going to impact Tesla's stock at all pretty much now Elon thinks it's a long shot he said the same thing about Tesla and SpaceX so maybe the history will repeat itself here Elon confirmed the news the governor is correct that this is a doo super computer but $500 million while obvious vious ly a large sum of money is only equivalent to a 10,000 h100 system from Nvidia Tesla will spend more than that on Nvidia Hardware this year the table Stakes for being competitive in AI are at least several billion dollars per year at this point I think it is helpful that Elon did confirm the news uh because for some reason a lot of people walked away from Tesla's Q4 call thinking Dojo was some sort of failure or that Elon had changed his tune on it clearly that's not the case with this $500 million investment and Tesla will buy chips from amdon just confirmed that himself okay this is a bit this is a bit much Dan eyeses sometimes he says some interesting things sometimes I I just raise my eyebrows when I see him talk uh yesterday was a dark day he's talking about earnings and us uh but this is not the end I mean it's a very dramatic choice of wars that is designed to gather attention this is not the end well clearly because that I still has a Tesla stop price Target that is over $300 $315 actually it's about the next chapter how musk and Tesla can move forward at this historical moment we will be discussing our top 10 list for must to turn around Tesla narrative so here's the complete list number one announced A110 billion share buyback with roughly $30 billion of cash on hand walk the walk not just talk the talk and show confidence to investors Dan I had a very similar thing last year Tesla did not do a buyback and Tesla saw did just fine number two I like this one create an xh holding structure that will include AI initiatives Dojo Optimus ofsd to give mus more control and could get him to 25% voting level I want a piece of xai to and ideally a piece of Twitter SLX number three stop the price Cuts now and maintain margin leverage over other Auto players interestingly he's not telling Tesla to advertise but I guess that point is sort of an indirect call for Tesla to advertise number four hold an AI day before the summer time frame so investors can better understand the goals for Dojo Optimus and FSD if Tesla does not do an AI day I'm completely fine with it because Elon did say that uh other companies just copy Tesla then so I am willing to take a hit on the stock if that means in the long term Tesla is in a better position to compete number five get outside Capital 4x/ Twitter with assurances of no more musk stock sales so yeah even though Elon did say that probably there will be no stock sales in 2024 he said that about a year ago he did not say definitely not he did say definitely not for 2023 but not for 2024 so there's a possibility that Elon Musk could sell some Tesla stock this year based on his wordss it's not a high chance but it's certainly possible but I don't think anyone is really worried about that because Elon wants to have 25% of Tesla so if he sells more Tesla stock right now that just that that would just be so weird I would understand it if it's after a new compensation package and there's a clear path of how Elon will have 25% of voting control even after selling some Tesla stock number six new compensation package with the proxy to lock in musk as CEO through 2030 along with settling Delaware legal issue holding things up I personally think so far that's the most important thing on that list by far because if feel on is focused on Tesla even if things get really bad that's actually when Elon shines that's where he excels he excels in positions of extreme pressure and high stakes when everyone is telling him you're going to fail he does his best work number seven hitable production SL delivery timeline for model 2 and sell $30,000 vehicle in 2025 okay number eight with Zach the former CFO gone conference calls have been horror shows return to formal guidance and go post and make messaging changes on call s like Gary black said Wall Street likes to be spoonfed well now you'll need to eat yourself because Elon is telling Wall Street to grow food themselves number 10 give long-term targets around AI Revenue to the Tesla ecosystem We Believe Tesla could be the biggest AI company in the world around F SD autonomous Dojo Optimus robot taxis give this key AI framework to the street SL investors yeah Den I really wants Tesla Elon to spoon feed the Wall Street investors I don't think that's going to happen if you really think about it to some degree Elon has already given that guidance he said uh FSD could be mindboggling in terms of its implications to Tesla's Revenue the bot if the bot scales what even is the economy I think that's about as precise as Elon is willing to go on this one I think the Tesla economist actually has a pretty good idea here give Elon incentives for huge targets with the caveat he cannot sell and a non-compete on AI and robots now I'm not sure about the cannot sell part maybe let him sell some uh but the non-compete on AI and robots I think could be quite helpful especially if Tesla could acquire a significant piece of X AI or X itself we know that tesas are incredibly difficult to hack but these white hat hackers hacked Teslas and they won $100,000 which is good because now Tesla can fixed these bugs also this is not the first time that this steam hacked a Tesla well this is making it really hard to know how many sabot truck Tesla is making exactly because sabot trucks just come out of the factory and immediately they go on trucks so if you want to know exactly how many saot trucks dley is making you literally have to stand in front of the factory the whole day you cannot just stay there for uh a few minutes fly a drone and check how many cyber trucks are out there no so Tesla could be doing really well already and we just wouldn't know now there is maybe a way to know how many saot TRS Tesla has produced you can see all the saotra vins activated by Tesla on this website uh what does it mean activated we don't quite know at what point in the manufacturing process a is activated but these are planned vins for production and give us all some sense of how things are going at the time of posting this Tesla has activated almost a th000 total vins for saot truck production these are not all completed or built trucks though I do believe Tesla has built about 500 to 600 complete trucks at this time says Gregor truck if you click on Raw data you can see when your VIN was activated by Tesla for your cyber truck I am not quite sure how legit this website is but uh seems like it might be actually legit and it's being updated quite often the last update was today how is the person running the website getting his data well Gregor truck says best we just stick to the magic response for now just it's legit and if you dig hard enough you can find it it seems that Tesla is building sa D 5 days a week 20 to 40 per day should Tesla adopt an FSD lie to let others know autopilot is active I think there are upsides and downsides to this one upside is when there's an accident as long as someone was filming then you will know immediately was that Tesla driving autonomously or no so that would eliminate a lot of fud on the other hand sometimes it does some weird things so if people start seeing a lot of people driving on FSD and they know that is FSD driving and it does something funny that may lead to a negative perception of FSD whereas now occasionally when I see a Tesla I'm just wondering is that guy just a bad driver on the flip side you would also see many Teslas driving on FSD and autopilot smoothly so you you would maybe think oh the system actually works fairly well maybe I should get a Tesla I don't want to drive myself that would probably work quite well in California but outside of California I'm not quite sure here in Vancouver City it's a bit of a hit and miss remember all of these automakers that sign deals with Tesla to access Tesla's superchargers well starting next month Ford n GM will be able to reap all of these rewards from that deal Ford NG GM will gain access to more than 12,000 Tesla superchargers in North America Lincoln is cutting 200 US dealerships in a 2year consolidation push the brand is also putting ITV strategy on hold so right now they are feeling some pain but this is what's coming for them it's inevitable Lincoln is going to be a hit by the big EV wave coming later on the financial times reported that supposedly xai is looking to raise as much as $6 billion for a valuation of $20 billion but Elon denies this he says xai is not raising capital and I have not had any conversations with anyone in this regard so many in the Tesla Community are talking about this bench of Pi and Tom McDonald's new anti-walk grab single facts rock is to number one on iTunes 24 hours what an interesting day today it is and YouTube says you should watch this video next that's appearing on the screen right now my name is Mt po just like And subscribe if you haven't yet and I'll will see you in the next video tomorrow thank you so much for watching
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