저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 마이클 버리의 테슬라 대규모 풋옵션 베팅은 사업 자체보다 단기 주가 거품에 대한 공매도 성격이며, 성공 여부는 옵션 행사가·만기를 몰라 단정할 수 없다. 13F 공시 내용: 2021년 1분기 시리즈 자산운용 13F에서 금리 상승 베팅과 함께 테슬라 풋옵션이 약 5억 3,400만 달러 규모로 확인됨. 옵션 계약 수는 약 8,000,000주 상당에 해당하는 것으로 언급. 베팅 구조: 풋옵션은 특정 가격에 매도할 권리이므로 주가가 하락할수록 가치가 올라감. 1분기 매수 시점 주가 범위(563~883달러)를 가정하면, 현재 주가가 563달러 아래면 수익, 883달러 위면 손실로 해석 가능. 다만 행사가와 만기 정보가 없어 실제 손익은 확인 불가. 버리의 사업 평가: 2020년 12월 트위터에서 머스크에게 지분 일부 매각을 권고하며 테슬라 주가 거품을 지적. 32개 자동차 기업과 비교 시 매출은 테슬라가 약 90배 낮으나 시가총액은 약 1.5배 수준이라는 표를 제시. 베팅 해석: 영상은 버리가 테슬라 사업 자체를 부정하기보다, 단기·중기 주가가 투기로 과열됐다고 보고 주가 하락에 베팅한 것으로 분석. 자율주행·로보택시 가능성은 인정하면서도 PER 600배 수준은 투자보다 투기에 가깝다는 시각. 출연자 견해: 진행자는 버리가 테슬라 주가가 수년 내 하락 조정될 가능성에 높은 확률을 두고 있다고 해석하나, 결과는 기다려봐야 한다는 입장. 기타: 영상 후반부는 협찬(하이퍼차트), 구독 유도 등 홍보 내용으로 투자 판단과 무관.
다듬은 글
well michael bury has released scion asset management's 13 f filing for q1 of 2021 and it was very interesting this time around firstly lots of options secondly big bets on interest rates going north which is essentially a prediction that we'll see big inflation ahead but thirdly this 13f finally showed us exactly what michael bury's bet against tesla is and it's a big bet so that's what we're going to look into in this video and i think i'll just have to come back and make another video honing in a little bit more on those other topics so make sure you subscribe look out for that one in the future but for now let's get started this video is sponsored by hyper charts sign up to hyper charts using the referral code new money or use the referral link in the description and save 10 for your first year of hypercharts premium details in the description so it was back in december of 2020 that barry first revealed a bet against tesla he tweeted so elon musk yes i'm sure tesla however some free advice for a good guy seriously issue 25 to 50 of your shares at the current ridiculous price that's not dilution you'd be cementing permanence and untold optionality and funnily enough at the time tesla stock price was pretty much exactly where it is now around 560 580 per share and boy oh boy did this cause a stir at the time uh barry essentially had half the crowd yelling you know you're crazy for shorting tesla don't bet against elon musk and the other half of the crowd was shouting you know you're a genius tesla stock is a massive bubble but for all the controversy it caused we didn't actually get any more information on this short position and in the q4 2020 13f filing again nothing now that is to be expected because stocks sold short don't show up in the 13f filing but now fast forward another quarter and something did show up in the 13f a 500 million dollar bet against tesla so what did he do well in q1 michael barry bought option contracts on tesla stock representing 800 100 tesla shares now remember how put options work this is just an example but the contract would read something like you know dear sir slash madam this contract gives you the right but not the obligation to sell your tesla shares to me at 550.
for example valid until some specific date in the not too distant future so barry has bought those contracts and they become more valuable the further tesla stock goes below in this example 550 because the person that wrote the contract has agreed that they'll buy the stock from you for 550 before that options expiration date so for this example if the stock price went to save 500 barry could simply buy the stock for peanuts on the open market and then make the person that wrote the option buy those shares from him for 550 a pop or he could just sell the option on to someone else at a much higher price than he originally bought it because that option contract is now very valuable but here's the annoying thing about options in 13f filings we don't know how long the option is valid for and we don't know the strike price all we know is that at the end of q1 2021 michael barry had a 534 million bet against tesla and he's done it through put options so that means barry has bought these options at some point when tesla was between 563 dollars and 883 dollars per share and that's a big range but if we assume he bought these put options at the worst possible time in q1 so aka when the stock was at its lowest point if the tesla stock price stays below 563 dollars from now he will have definitely made money and vice versa if the stock rises above the 883 dollar mark from now which would have been the best time in q1 to buy a put option then we will know that barry is definitely losing money but here's the last point unfortunately we don't even know how long michael bury's put options are valid for you know maybe they're expiring in a week or a month or perhaps they've already expired we just don't know so in reality it does become very hard to accurately estimate whether a big investor is winning or losing on an option bet that shows up in a 13f now lastly before i signed off on this video i just wanted to go through why michael barry would have done this why is he shorting tesla stock because you know chances are if you're watching this video you probably feel reasonably strongly that barry is either a genius or an idiot uh but to be honest i don't actually think michael bury dislikes tesla's business from his post he seems to like elon musk and i actually reckon he would support what tesla are doing and i spoke about this in the last video i made on the topic i don't actually think michael barry is making a bet against tesla the company i think he's purely making a bet against tesla the stock the reason i think this is that when this information first came out from michael barry on his twitter page he posted an interesting table comparing the total revenue ebit and market cap from 32 large auto manufacturers and then he compared that to tesla and what it showed was that when you add together the revenue of these 32 companies you got 2.3 trillion dollars and at the time tesla was sitting at 24.5 billion dollars then when you looked at ebit you got 102 billion for all 32 car companies combined versus negative 70 million for tesla however then when you looked at the market capitalization all 32 car companies added together came to 991 billion dollars and tesla at the time sat at 646 billion so for just one third more market cap you're getting about 90 times more revenue and while i would say to michael barry look you're not considering the future you're not considering full self-driving potential or robo-taxi potential that will be a huge driver for revenue for tesla in the future and should easily take tesla past all of these other auto companies while i would say that to him that's probably not something he would even care about for this situation he could actually agree with that and still make this bet because what michael bury is betting on right now is that tesla stock right now is in a short-term bubble which is fed mostly by speculation at this point and even if you believe that tesla will be the biggest company in the world in the future i think you could still probably agree that the price movements we've seen over the past few months that have taken tesla to a p e ratio of over 600 they're primarily fueled on speculation as opposed to investment because even if tesla achieves their stated 40 to 50 compound annual growth rate a discounted cash flow analysis will still tell you that you'll have to wait about a decade before the business catches up to the stock and i think that's really what michael bury is doing he's making a bet against the stock price over the short medium term he's not betting that the business sucks he's not betting that robo taxis are never gonna happen nothing like that that you'd hear from one of the short sellers of tesla he's just found a situation where you know like a game stop the share price is irrationally high for where it ought to be so in this instance he believes you know he gives a high probability to the share price coming down from the clouds as opposed to continuing to skyrocket even more but of course we'll have to wait and see so anyway let me know your thoughts down in the comments section below i'd love to hear what you have to say michael barry genius or fool i know certainly from my perspective i would never have the balls to bet against elon musk but he clearly does so what do you reckon do you reckon this short uh this this put option position is going to work out for him or do you feel like tesla is going to keep on its charge and uh yeah he's going to have to take a bit of an l on this position i'd love to hear from you guys let me know in the comment section down below leave a like on the video if you did enjoy it or if you found it useful i really appreciate it it helps out the video heaps in the youtube algorithm so i really do appreciate it thanks for all the support and if you're interested in supporting the channel financially or you just want to learn about investing kind of you know how i go about it i guess there's a warren buffett strategy course and there's also the passive investing strategy we've done a course on that you can check out profitable links down in the description below if you'd like to learn more about that but that will do me for today guys thank you all very much for watching and i'll see you guys in the next video hey guys thanks for watching the video and thanks to hyper charts for sponsoring this video if you're a stock market investor and you are not using hyper charts i would seriously recommend you check them out uh essentially what hypercharts does is it takes all those nitty gritty numbers out of the company's financial statements and it puts it into really nice easy to understand charts and they do that quarter after quarter after quarter year after year after year now that's just for free but if you wanted to upgrade to a premium subscription you get a whole host of other features for example you can compare two companies on the same page you get access to historical 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