저자: NewMoney채널진행자 · 외국인
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2021년 1분기 버크셔 해서웨이 13F 보고서 분석 영상. 핵심 결론: 버핏은 2021년 1분기에 매도 우위였고, 포트폴리오 가치는 0.1% 증가에 그쳐 같은 기간 S&P 500(약 7%)에 크게 못 미쳤다. 포트폴리오 변화: 4분기 말 주식 보유액 2,699억 달러(3분기 2,360억 달러 대비 증가), 1분기 말 2,704억 달러로 0.1% 증가. 애플 비중 약 40%이며 1분기 애플 주가는 약 5% 하락해 포트폴리오 증가를 제한. 매도: 46개 종목 중 11개 감축, 2개(Suncor Energy, Synchrony Financial) 전량 매도. 웰스파고 98% 매도(포트폴리오 영향 0.77%), 리버티 글로벌 88% 매도, 쉐브론 절반 매도(1분기 1% 영향, 2020년 3분기 처음 매수), 메르크 40% 감축. 전체 매도 규모는 약 80억 달러(포트폴리오 3% 감소). 은행주 비중 축소: 버핏은 은행 전체 비중을 줄이고 뱅크오브아메리카 한 곳에 집중하는 방향을 주주총회에서 설명. BofA 지분 10% 상한을 언급하며 미국 은행 업황은 10~15년 전보다 개선됐다고 평가. 매수: 매수 총액은 약 25억 달러(포트폴리오 0.9%). 신규 편입은 영국 보험사 Aon plc 등 소량 매수; 베라이즌 8% 추가 매수(약 100억 달러 규모, 포트폴리오 6번째 비중 3.42%); 크로거 52% 증가(약 18억 달러, 0.68%). 리스크/조건: 애플 비중이 매우 커 애플 주가에 포트폴리오가 크게 좌우됨. 쉐브론·웰스파고 등 매도 배경으로 기후 변화 주주 압박 가능성 언급(진행자 추측). 출연자 전망: 진행자는 버핏의 은행 비중 축소와 쉐브론 매도 지속 가능성을 언급했으나, 개별 종목 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 예측은 없음. 영상 후반부는 스폰서(Sharesight) 광고.
다듬은 글
so the 13fs are out for q1 of 2021. of course the 13f sec filing shows us exactly what the big name investors have in their portfolio so we can see what they're buying and selling from quarter to quarter the only annoying thing though is that this info gets held for 45 days after the quarter is done before it gets released to us that's why for january february march quarter we're only just seeing the info now even though we're halfway through may more than halfway through may however nonetheless i'd much rather have this info than not so you know i guess beggars can't be choosers so in this video we're going to do a deep dive into berkshire hathaway's q1 13f filings so analyzing the portfolio moves of you guessed it mr warren buffett himself and i'll tell you right up the top of the video there's some very interesting stuff going on warren buffett at the moment is definitely selling much much more than he's buying so anyway let's discuss right after this this video is brought to you by sharesight sick of tracking your performance manually track capital gains dividends and currency fluctuations easily and when it comes to tax time have everything you need ready to go with just a click of a button try share site for free or use the referral link in the description to get four months free when you sign up to an annual plan so coming out of q4 2020 berkshire's stock holdings totaled 269.9 billion up from 236 billion in q3 however here's the first big talking point berkshire's portfolio did not grow in q1 after the most recent quarter their portfolio was worth 270.4 billion so up just 0.1 percent so why did this happen well a lot of that is down to their stake in apple apple is 40 of berkshire's portfolio so movements in apple's stock price will heavily influence berkshire's portfolio value now in q3 2020 apple went up 28 then in q4 it went up 13 but in q1 of 2021 apple was down 5 so that's the first reason their portfolio size hasn't continued to shoot up but the second reason is quite simply that berkshire did a lot of selling in q1 and makes sense that if you reduce a lot of your positions your portfolio is going to get smaller so how much selling did they actually do well quite a bit they had 46 stocks in their portfolio at the end of q1 and during the quarter they reduced their holdings in 11 of them plus they sold out of two stocks completely so let's have a look what were the big moves well firstly they sold out of suncor energy and synchrony financial but no big deal there those stocks only occupied 0.09 percent 0.26 percent of berkshire's portfolio respectively so not huge sales but look at this massive long list of the companies that they reduced in there's a lot of them and heading up this list is wells fargo they reduced 98 of wells fargo which had a 0.77 impact on their portfolio so it was actually a pretty sizable sell for berkshire and honestly i don't blame buffett for doing this considering all the information that's come out about wells fargo in the past few years it is also a convenient time to sell wells fargo because in 2021 wells fargo has been on an absolute tear as it recovers from its crash from last year but what this does show is a theme that has been very prevalent over the past year or so and that is that warren buffett continues to want less exposure to the us financials it seems the trend is now every time we get a 13 f filing from berkshire we're just asking how much stock has buffett sold in the banks this quarter but interestingly buffett did actually address this in berkshire's most recent shareholder meeting so i'll just quickly play a clip from that and you can hear his rationale for yourselves could you please explain why you decided to exit most of your bank stocks in 2020 except for bank of america and what's your view on the future of the banking industry i i like banks generally i just didn't like the proportion we had in compared to the possible risks if we if we got bad results that did not so far we haven't gotten so i i just and i we were over 10 percent of bank of america there's it's a real pain in the neck both to the bank and more of the banks than us if we go over 10 percent there's just all our and uh i like the bank of america i mean i and i like brian moynihan very much and and i like the banking business fine so we took that up but we took the overall bank position down we didn't want to go above 10 and any others and we did want to increase the b of a position but but we overall didn't want as much in banks as as we have we like the banking business is way better than it was in the united states in 10 or 15 years ago the banking business around the world uh in various places what might might worry me but uh we our banks are in far far better shape than 10 or 15 years ago so there you go it doesn't actually sound that bad berkshire just doesn't want as much exposure and would rather back you know one bank as opposed to having large stakes in all of them and then just copying the paperwork of being considered something like a bank holding company all right moving on another big sell moving on into the second big reduction buffett reduced 88 in liberty global which is a telecommunications company that had a 0.13 impact on the portfolio size to be honest i don't have much to add on that one but if you look at this next one they ditched half of their position in chevron this is a big move as you can see it had a one percent impact on their portfolio which you've got to remember for berkshire is literally billions and billions of dollars this one's really interesting to me anyway because it was only in q3 of 2020 that he bought chevron for the first time now obviously at the time i thought this was a bad move and i criticized buffett at the time because he prides himself of you know on being a very long-term investor and then he just goes out and buys a oil giant but to his credit it seems as though he is backtracking a bit at least enough to halve his investment size personally i'd love to see him keep going and ditch it completely i hope the reduction is kind of on the back of shareholder pressure i guess it was only a few weeks ago where berkshire copped a fair few questions about you know climate change and specifically their plans to decarbonize their own business operations so maybe this is a bit of a move on the back of shareholder pressure i kind of hope it is but really i i don't know but in all honesty if he wanted to ditch chevron now it wouldn't even be that hard to do it i mean even though he only started buying in q3 of last year he's still up 16 on his positions so why not cut and run anyway that's chevron and the other the only other notable sell was a 40 reduction in merc that had a 0.3 impact on his portfolio but as you can see the other positions were you know 0.08 impact or 0.11 or 0.03 so not much to write about there in terms of impact to the portfolio although he did reduce his gm holdings by eight percent which you know is pretty interesting but overall the sales of the quarter totaled a three percent reduction in his portfolio so around about eight billion dollars of stock sales but that seriously dwarfs the buyers for the quarter all of the buying added together increased the portfolio by just zero point nine percent or about two and a half billion dollars so heaps of selling not much buying plus apple which is forty percent of your portfolio goes down five percent in the quarter and that's why you don't see a gain in their portfolio in this quarter and to be honest if apple went down like 15 and a quarter that in itself would be make it very very hard for berkshire hathaway's portfolio to end up in the black but anyway let's now turn our attention to the buyers and interestingly they added a new position in the quarter and that was a on plc so an insurance company nothing crazy here from buffett he knows what he likes he bought about 4.1 million shares during the quarter and currently that position is worth 943 million dollars so it occupies 0.35 percent of his portfolio and it's the 25th largest position interestingly eonshares jumped 2 from the buffett effect and buffett would be absolutely cheering on this buy because he is already up at least 10 at least 10 percent on that position in other news he also added 8 to his verizon position making that stake worth nearly 10 billion it's now the sixth largest position in his portfolio occupying 3.42 of the portfolio and lastly he added 52 to kroger so big increase in that position it's now worth 1.8 uh billion dollars and occupies 0.68 of his portfolio so overall they are warren buffett's moves for q1 of 2021 lots of selling not much buying and interestingly no real gains at all in q1 despite the s p rising seven percent in that same time frame anyway let me know what you think of buffett's moves down in the comments section below please leave a like on the video if you found it useful found it helpful it 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