저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 캐시 우드는 비트코인과 혁신주(AI 관련)를 안전자산 성격으로 보며 2023년 6월 시점 매수 관점을 제시했다. 부채한도 합의와 CDS 프리미엄 급락으로 디폴트 공포가 완화됐고, 이로 인한 주식시장 안도 랠리가 언급됐다. 비트코인은 2만6천~3만1천달러 박스권에서 횡보했으며, QCP Capital은 부채한도 이슈 해소 후 월말 전후로 방향 전환(상승 돌파) 가능성을 봤다. 2020년 유동성 공급 패턴과 유사하다는 근거다. 금은 2년 반 넘게 박스권이며, 1900~2000달러 구간 상승은 인플레 헤지보다 안전자산 선호(flight to safety)로 해석했다. 박스권을 유지하는 한 괜찮다는 입장. 비트코인·가상자산은 지역은행 위기 때 상승해 안전자산 성격을 보였다는 점이 근거로 제시됐다. 이더리움도 일부 해당된다고 언급. AI 등 혁신 분야는 경쟁 압박 때문에 향후 안전자산으로 인식될 것이라고 봤고, 엔비디아 등 수혜 기업을 연구 중이라고 했다. 금리 하락 시 장기 듀레이션 자산(혁신주)에 순풍이 된다고 설명. 고용 지표: 비농업 고용은 33.9만으로 예상치를 상회했지만, 가계고용은 -31만으로 괴리가 커 전환점 신호일 수 있다고 봤다. 중소기업 해고 선행 가능성 언급. 연준의 금리 인상 지속 여부에 대해 일부 연준 인사들이 재고 중일 수 있다는 의견. 연준이 통화량을 언급하지 않는 점에 의문 제기. 출연자 전망: 비트코인 2023년 전망을 댓글로 묻는 형태로 마무리, 구체적 목표가는 없음.
다듬은 글
we had we have a debt deal now that President Biden is going to sign we're not going to have to worry about this until early 2025. they're taking this off the table uh for uh election Year campaign season and it makes sense um it's astonishing how fearful the market was of default though credit default swaps on U.S sovereign debt Rose at its peak to 325 325.
um now this is an insurance the price of an insurance policy against default so it it went up to 325 and uh within the last few days is down to 10. so the the fear out there was extreme and the market is enjoying the stock market uh some uh some of a relief rally associated with that fear going away Bitcoin consolidation could end by July new research predicts as optimism over a BTC price breakout returns in its latest market update on June 2nd trading firm qcp Capital revealed a bullish bias on both Bitcoin and the largest altcoin hello and welcome to moneytalks in today's video Kathy Woods CEO and CIO of Arc invest shares her beliefs on money growth the risks of deflation versus inflation and why we believe Innovation will be perceived as a flight to safety uh gold has been in a trading range for the last two and a half years now and as long as it stays in that trading range we're we're fine I think part of the reason it's moved up from the 1617 uh thousand or a hundred dollar range up to the 1900 to 2 000 range was the flight to safety some would say it's fear of inflation a hedge against inflation we would say it's more of a flight to safety much like Bitcoin enjoying enjoy avoid going from nineteen thousand to thirty thousand uh we have found it very interesting that Bitcoin and crypto generally rallied in the face of a crisis the Regional Bank crisis uh and that that was proof positive to us uh at least that uh that crypto and especially Bitcoin and and to some extent ether um have become flight to safety Vehicles much like gold um and in fact it got us thinking about Innovation generally especially now uh that AI has is becoming so important top of mind all corporations now uh which means it's going to happen faster than otherwise would have been the case uh we think Innovation is going to be perceived broadly before all is said and done in this cycle as a flight to safety it's the opposite of the way uh investors and others have been perceiving it in the last couple of years they were looking at innovation in in a period when interest rates were going up as as uh a problem a problem in their portfolios because Innovation or any long duration asset is very dependent on interest rates but if interest rates are going down then they turn from a headwind into a Tailwind so that's good but this other notion of flight to safety uh if if and especially in the world of artificial intelligence if my competitor is doing something in the Innovation space specifically AI that I am not doing and I am going to lose then I need to get there quickly I need to this is a safety valve for me to get to innovate uh at least as fast if not faster than my competitors and uh AI certainly is bringing uh that that risk and that opportunity to life in a way that we couldn't have imagined in 2014 what we were doing our work on Nvidia and who else might be the beneficiaries of this very powerful movement bitcoin price has been ranging between twenty six thousand dollars and thirty one thousand dollars since mid-march but analysts are increasingly calling time on the sideways action qcp capital is among them predicting a change of course as soon as the end of the month this it argues is thanks to the United States debt ceiling Sideshow Vanishing leaving Bitcoin closely mimicking its consolidation and breakout phase from 2020.
with a passage of the debt ceiling Bill through the House and Senate that extends the ceiling until January 2025 we can now all move on and not have to worry about any political Sideshow again until next year's U.S presidential elections it wrote this means we now return to our regular programming of proper macro and crypto narratives for qcp the price levels may be different but the underlying behavior is the same in 2023 as at the start of the covid-19 pandemic back then the Federal Reserve Unleashed a giant 4 trillion dollars worth of liquidity bullying risk assets and ultimately sending Bitcoin to new all-time highs in March 2020 we were on the verge of a massive price breakdown below 5K when the FED unleashed the liquidity tap resulting in an exponential price increase as we approached the having cycle the following year quoting a previous edition of its just crypto newsletter series similarly in March 2023 we were about to break below 20K on BTC as a result of the banking crisis risk-off when the FED again unleashed the liquidity tap to drive us back above 30k as we head into the next halving cycle next year um I'll I'll say it again it is shocking to me that the Fed never talks about money supply um I I start I was early in my career when fed chairman volcker was focused on inflation and all we talked about was money supply so quite a big difference so the question now is is the Fed going to pause and we keep getting different stories from different fed Governors and presidents and so forth if you look at the two variables that the FED has focused us on employment and you look at the headline numbers including today's we'll get into that in a moment um you'd say no way are they going to pause they're going to keep keep lifting rates employment is too strong if you look at the details inside today's report and maybe I will go through that now you'll see that they may be having second thoughts while the headline number non-farm payroll was up 339 000 I believe um much stronger than the 250 to 280 000 expected the another number which is actually a leading indicator of employment but it's very deep deeply into the report is called household employment so payroll employment is a survey of Corporations household employment is a survey of households and uh that number was down down three hundred and ten thousand uh which is pretty shocking to see that kind of a Divergence but it does happen at turning points in the cycle and it has happened a number of times uh in the last really year and a half we've seen um the three-month moving average of the household employment numbers go negative uh while the non-farm payroll numbers uh um churn ahead and what What might explain this in our view it could be because the payroll employment just counts the number of jobs household employment that those workers some of them are working two and three jobs at a time and so but they're just one person employed so it could be that they are losing some of those jobs um we'll we will see it tends to capture uh the small and medium businesses more than the non-farm payroll does and they're the first to lay off people so that may be what's going on so is it a good time to invest in Bitcoin and what's your prediction for Bitcoin in 2023 tell us in the comments also don't forget to like And subscribe see you soon with the next video thank you so much for watching
Comments 0