저자: PeterLynch · 외국인
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결론: 주식은 장기적으로 유리하지만 단기 자금은 주식에 넣으면 안 되며, 개별 기업 분석과 유연한 사고가 중요하다. 시장 타이밍에 대한 입장: 단기 조정을 예측하는 것은 실패가 많다. 조정을 기다리다 손해본 사람이 실제 조정보다 많았다. 리스크 관리: 10%, 20% 하락 시 어떻게 할지 미리 생각해야 한다. 1~2년 내 필요한 돈은 주식이 아니라 MMF 등 현금성 자산에 둬야 한다. 과거 실적: 마젤란 펀드 13년간 시장이 10% 이상 하락한 9번 모두 시장보다 더 하락했지만 장기적으로 성과를 냈다고 언급. 신흥국: 신흥국 시장이 많이 하락했고 일부 국가는 개선 중이라 잠재력이 있을 수 있으나 본인 전문분야가 아니라 리서치 대상으로만 제시. 경제 전망: 경제지표나 금리 전망은 보지 않으며 1년 뒤 금리나 경제를 예측하지 않는다고 함. 종목 분석 방법: 주식은 복권이 아니라 기업이며, 기업 실적과 사업을 분석해야 한다. 의료·산업 현장 경험 등 정보 우위(edge)가 중요하다. 정보 환경: 과거에는 실적 정보를 우편으로 받았으나 현재는 실적발표가 전 세계에 중계되어 개인의 정보 우위가 이전보다 개선되었다고 봄. 편향 배제: 고성장주만 보거나 철도·석유·철강 같은 산업, 턴어라운드 기업을 무시하는 편향을 경계. 노조 있는 기업도 매수한 경험 언급. 유연성 강조, 피델리티 펀드매니저들의 유연한 투자 방식 언급.
다듬은 글
stock market the most important organ is the stomach it's not the brain there's always on the way to work the amount of bad news you can hear is almost infinite now so the question is can you take that I mean do you really have faith that 10 years 20 years 30 years from now Common Stocks are a place to be if you believe in that you should have some money in Equity Funds I mean it's a question what's your torns for pain I mean the stock market's a very good place to be but I can toss a coin now it's going to be lowered two years from now higher I don't know more people lost money waiting for Corrections and anticipating Corrections then the actual Corrections well you ought to look in the mirror every day and say what am I going to do if Mario goes down 10 percent why don't you do if it goes down 20.
am I going to sell am I going to get out that's your answer you should be reducing it today well hey this perfect record I think the 13 years of ram Magellan the market went down nine times ten percent or more I had a perfect record I went down more than the market every time I went down I went down more so I I just didn't worry about it the point is would you say to yourself do I need this money in a year do I need this money in two years do I need this money in three years so am I longer term stock market's been the best place to be last 10 years last 30 years last 130 years but if you need the money in one or two years you shouldn't be buying stocks you should be in a money market well I think emerging markets and that's not my expertise but I mean these markets have been really hammered you know in their a lot of countries are doing a lot better you know I mean so I think there's potential there that's not my expertise but I think Emerging Markets could be a place to research I I never looked at the economy I want to find the only thing I look at what's happening right now you know what's going to happen a year for now what's going to have interest rates I'd love to get next year's Wall Street Journal I'd pay an extra dollar for it that'd be very helpful I don't know what's going to be future if I want to find right now well I think anybody that's investing the stock market that's understand you buy a company these are not lottery tickets he's behind every stock there's a Company the company does well over time the stocks do well and vice versa you have to look at the company that's what you're researching that's what you do at Valley that's what I do you could be an Interventional cardiologist and you're putting in ABIA meds impella you say wow this really is an incredible breakthrough preventing shock preventing you know hemodynamic support it's amazing it's it's a breakthrough it's great it works but you're actually using it I mean or you're you're assisting you're in the operating room seeing this breakthrough that's you know you saw way ahead of most people that's an edge you need an edge on something well the dad and I was so good I remember when Nike we own Nike we had to wait for the mail to come to our library now when somebody reports earnings it's telecast all over the world they have an investor presentation they show a balance sheet so information is much better so theoretically the individual's Edge has improved in the last 20 30 years versus the professional the date is there it's free but I think a lot of people that promise they have so many Prejudice there's so many biases they won't look at a railroad they won't look an oil company they won't look at the steel company you know they're only going to look at companies growing 40 a year they won't look at turnarounds so one thing you just don't have so many pressures and biases I bought companies with unions you have to really be agnostic a lot of people they're just not flexible I think flexibility is and that's why Fidelity's had so many great funding managers we're they're very flexible what they look at
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