저자: PeterLynch · 외국인
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주식 투자는 개인도 충분히 잘할 수 있으며, 핵심은 자신이 보유한 회사를 이해하는 것이다. 개인투자자는 자신이 이해하는 기업에 투자해야 하며, 10살 아이에게 2분 안에 설명할 수 없는 종목은 보유하지 말아야 한다는 원칙이 강조된다. 좋은 예로 던킨도넛츠와 타가멧(Tagamet), 월마트, 마이크로소프트 사례를 들어 일상 속 경험에서 얻는 우위(edge)를 활용하라고 말한다. 산업이 열악에서 평범, 좋음, 최고로 개선될 때 주가가 오르므로, 자신의 업계나 고객·공급자 입장에서 변화를 포착하라고 조언한다. 장기 보유 관점이 중요하며, 월마트 등은 상장 후 10년이 지나 매수해도 큰 수익을 얻을 수 있었다고 설명한다. 역사적으로 시장은 약 2년에 한 번 10% 조정, 약 6년에 한 번 25% 하락이 있었으며, 이는 불가피한 현상이므로 대비가 필요하다고 본다. 변동성은 기회이며, 좋은 기업을 싸게 살 수 있는 때로 활용해야 한다고 강조한다. 예로 타코벨 사례를 든다. 기업 이익은 장기적으로 연 약 8% 성장해왔고 주가는 이를 따라간다는 견해를 밝힌다. 경기침체, 전쟁, 공황 등 걱정거리는 항상 존재하므로 뉴스에 흔들리지 말고 좋은 기업을 보유하라고 조언한다. 주식 투자는 복권이 아니며 뒤에는 실제 기업이 있다는 점을 강조한다. 손실 가능성은 투자금으로 제한되지만 수익은 크게 날 수 있어, 모든 투자를 맞힐 필요는 없고 소수의 성공으로 충분하다고 말한다. 출연자 전망은 특정 자산에 대한 단기 방향 예측 없이 장기 원칙 중심이다.
다듬은 글
I frankly think it's a tragedy in America that the small investor has been convinced by the media that they don't have a chance big institutions with all their computers and all their degrees and all their money have all the edges and it just isn't true at all and when they're convinced when this happens when this occurs people act accordingly they when they believe it they buy stocks for a week and they buy options they buy the Chile fund this week and next week it's the Argentina fund and they get results proportioned to that kind of investing and that's very bothersome I think the public can do extremely well in the stock market on their own I think the fact that institutions dominate the market today is a positive for small investors these institutions push stocks on usual lows they push them unusual highs for someone they can sit back and have their own opinion know something about industry this is a positive it's not Enigma the single most important thing to me in the stock market for anyone is to know what you own I'm amazed how many people own stocks they would not be able to tell you why they own it they couldn't say in a minute or less why they don't actually you're really press them down to say the reason I own this is the suckers going up and that's the only reason that's the only reason they own it and if you can't explain I'm serious you can't explain to a 10 year old in two minutes or less while you're on a stock you should own it and that's true I think about 80 percent of people that own stocks I made money in Dunkin Donuts I can understand it I uh when there's recessions I didn't have to worry about what was happening I could go there and people were still there I didn't have to worry about low price Korean imports I made 10 or 15 times my money in Dunkin Donuts those are the kind of stocks I can understand if you don't understand it doesn't work this is the single biggest principle you need an edge to make money too people have incredible edges and they throw them away I'll give you a quick example of uh Smith Klein you didn't hit about Smith Klein when tag him that first came out a year after came out let's say your spouse your mother your father you're a nurse You're a druggist you're running all these prescriptions Tagamet was doing an amazing job of curing ulcers bought it two years after the product was on the market and made five or six times your money I mean all the drugs all the nurses all the people millions of people saw this product and they're out buying oil companies you know or drilling rooms it happens and then three years later or four years later glaxo even a bigger company is a huge company British company brought Zantac which was a better at that time an improved product and you could have seen that take market share do well you could buy glaxo and triple your money so you only need a few stocks in your lifetime they're in your industry I think of people if you'd worked in the Auto industry let's say you're an auto dealer the last 10 years you would have seen Chrysler come up with a minivan you've seen if you're a Buick deal or a Toyota deal Honda dealer you would have seen Chrysler dealership packed with people you could have made 10 times your money on Chrysler a year after the minivan came out so if you're a car dealer you only need to buy a few stocks every decade when your lifetime's over you don't need a lot of five Baggers to make a lot of money starting with ten thousand dollars or five thousand dollars so when when you see this coming you can say wait a second I can make some money when an industry goes from terrible To Mediocre the stock goes north when it goes from mediocre to good the stock goes north and it goes from good to terrific to stock goes north there's lots of ways to make money in your own industry you could be a supplier in the industry you can be a customer this thing this thing happens in the paper industry it happens in the steel industry it doesn't happen every week but if you're in you're some field you'll see a turn you'll see something in the publishing industry these things come along and it's just mind-boggling people throw it away another key element is that you have plenty of time people are an unbelievable rush to buy a stock I'll give you an example of a well-known company Walmart went public in October of 1970.
1970 went public already had a great record it had 15 years performance great balance sheet you could have waited 10 years saying you're a very conservative investor you're not sure this Walmart can make it you want to check you see them operate in small towns you're afraid they can only make in seven or eight states you want to wait till they go to more States you keep waiting you can bought Walmart 10 years after they went public I made 35 times your money if you bought it when they went in public you would have made 500 times your money but you can wait 10 years after Walmart went public it made uh 30 over 30 times your money you can wait three years after Microsoft went public made 10 times your money now if you knew something about software I know nothing about software if you decide about software you would said these guys have it I don't care who's going to win compact IBM I don't know who's going to win Japanese computers I know Microsoft MS-DOS is the right thing you could have bought Microsoft you can just watch it you have plenty of time people are in an amazing rush to purchase the security they're out of breath when they call up you don't need to know this study history and history is the important thing you learn from what you learn from history is the market goes down it goes down a lot the math is simple there's been 93 years a century this is easy to do the market said 50 declines of 10 or more so 50 declines in 93 years about once every two years the market Falls 10 percent we call that a correction of those 50 declines 15 have been 25 or more that's known as a bear Market we've had 15 declines in 93 years so every six years the Market's going to have a 25 decline that's all you need to know you need to know the Market's going to go down sometimes if you're not ready for that you shouldn't own stocks and it's good when it happens if you like a stock at 14 it goes to six that's great you understand the company you look at the balance sheet and they're doing fine you're hoping to get to 22 with it 14 to 22 is terrific six to 22 is exceptional so you take advantage of these declines they're going to happen no one knows when they're going to happen people tell you about it after the fact that they predicted it but they predicted it 53 times and uh so you can take advantage of the volatility Market if you understand what you're on I love volatility I I remember when uh in 1972 the market went from uh down dramatically and Taco Bell went from 14 to 1.
did no debt they never had a restaurant closed and uh I started buying at seven but I kept onto it and it went to one and uh it was the largest position in Magellan in 1978 one was bought out from by forty two dollars by Pepsi Cola I think it would have gone to 400 if they'd buy it out I think volatility is terrific I think it is very I think these calls are very important I don't think the market going up 80 points one day and down 80 the next uh is a good thing for the public I think that's not a very good thing but I think all these callers and all these other things to keep the volatility down each day is important but the Market's going to go up and down of the human nature hasn't changed a lot in 25 000 years and some event will come out of left field and uh the market will go down and Mark will go up so I volatility will occur and markets will continue to have these ups and downs I think that's a great opportunity if people can understand what they own basically corporate profits have grown about eight percent a year historically so corporate profits double about every nine years the stock market ought to double about every nine years so go up eight percent a year and and stocks will follow that's all there is to it there's always something to worry about uh if you own stocks is always something to worry about you can't get away from it another reason we got out of the Depression was World War II we got another recession in the early 50s and said we're gonna go right back into a depression people worry about a depression in the 50s and they're worried about nuclear war but I want oil went from 4 to 40 and it was going to go to 100 and we're gonna have a depression remember that one well about three years later the same experts now higher paid oil is now a 10 they said it was going to four and we're going to have a depression and then the Japanese remember the Japanese we're gonna own the world remember that one and that we're gonna have a depression and then about two years later we're all worried about Japan collapse it's unbelievable I mean the LDC debt remember the LDC debt remember that one all these countries all Chase had lent their net worth to Brazil Chile Peru I'd always like to do this and all these said they're not going to pay it back and we're going to have a different it always ends and we're gonna have a depression or the Great Depression we have the Great Depression or the big one the big one's coming so they're always something to worry about and the key organ in your body in the stock market is your stomach it's not the brain it's always going to be scary it's going to be always something to worry about you just have to forget all of them cut it all out and own good companies our own turnarounds study them and you'll do well stocks will beat the hell out of money markets they can beat the hell out of bonds no group of you think of every incorporations McDonald's and these great companies Marriott you name it they've never got together and said geez you know we're really doing well why don't we raise the coupon in our bonds you know those Bond hole has been really loyal no no you know we've been given eight percent why don't we raise it to nine you know uh what companies like automatic data processing they do payroll it's amazing prosaic company 32 years of higher earnings 32 years of double vision earnings growth we've had recessions we've had Wars no changes in Congress changes in the Supreme Court 32 years about burning so I mean that's what you're relying on Johnson Johnson 30 is our furnace and these are General Parts 42 years of up earnings Emerson Electric 38 years our Burns you don't see companies like this in other parts of the world I'm trying to convince people there is a method there are reasons for stocks that go up uh Coca-Cola is earning 30 times per share what they did 32 years ago the stock has gone up 30 fold Bethlehem Steel is earning less than they did 30 years ago the stock is half its price of 30 years ago stocks are not lottery tickets there's a company behind every stock the company does well the stocked as well it's not that complicated people get too carried away I was very consistent the market went down when I ran Magellan on 13 years the market went down nine times and every time the Mark went down Magellan went down it was nine for nine and uh you know because it's very important it's another one of these numbers you got to write down if you put a thousand dollars in a stock all you can lose is a thousand I've done that several times and uh but if you're right you can make five thousand ten thousand twenty thousand so this business you don't have to be right one or two times you could be right one out of four the times you're right you know the company's doing well you know they're doing a great job and you add to it or at least you don't sell it which is terrible tragedy thank you
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