저자: CharlieMunger—진행:ToroInvesting · 외국인
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결론: 과도한 통화·재정 부양이 인플레이션을 낳았고, 향후 큰 경제적 대가가 따를 가능성이 높으나 그 규모와 시점은 예측 불가하다. 인플레이션 환경과 1970년대 비교: 1980년 볼커의 고금리 긴축은 과거 정치 간섭이 없던 특수한 조건에서 가능했으며, 당시 극심한 경기침체는 결과적으로 옳은 선택이었다고 평가. 현대 정치인은 볼커식 긴축을 허용하지 않을 것이므로 향후 문제는 과거와 다를 수 있고 더 어려울 수 있다. 포퓰리즘과 민주주의 약화 위험을 라틴아메리카 사례와 플라톤의 견해로 설명. 현재 인플레이션은 과도한 부양의 결과라는 데 동의. 일본은 막대한 통화 증발에도 문명적 안정을 유지했지만 25년간 생활수준 정체를 겪었고, 그 원인은 금융정책보다 중국·한국과의 경쟁 심화라고 설명. 이자 부담을 없애기 위해 채무를 현금성 통화로 전환하는 유혹이 크며, 이는 남용되기 쉽다. 개인 투자자 조언: 완벽한 분산보다 소수의 우량 자산이 현실적이며, 버크셔·코스트코·중국주식·소수 부동산을 예로 들었다. 차트·기술적 분석·AI 모멘텀이 시장을 지배하더라도 벤저민 그레이엄식 가치투자(지불가격보다 높은 가치 획득)는 영원히 유효하다. 남해버블 등 역사적 광기 사례를 들어 투기 과열을 경계. 미래 금리: 대규모 통화 발행이 전례 없는 영역이라 금리 급등 여부는 누구도 확신할 수 없다고 답변. 미국은 다민족 사회라 일본보다 통치가 어렵다고 언급. 과잉 통화 발행은 결국 심각한 문제를 낳으며 현재는 과거보다 그 위험에 더 가깝다는 경고로 마무리.
다듬은 글
you mentioned wearing a big bubble can you elaborate on that and how is this likely to play out well I think eventually they'll be considerable trouble because of The Wretched access that's the way it's usually worked in the past but when it's going to come and how bad it will be I can't tell you Steve caspell writes in on on this same subject he says what are your current thoughts on the inflationary environment and please compare and contrast it to the 1970s when we when volcker after the 70s took the primary to 20 percent and the government was paying 15 on its government bonds that was a horrible recession lasted a long time caught with a lot of agony and I certainly hope we're never we're not going there again I think the conditions that allowed volcker to do that without an interference from the politicians were very unusual and I think it in 2020 hindsight it was a good thing that he did it I would not predict that our modern politicians will be as willing to permit a new Volker to get that tough with the economy and bring on that kind of a recession so I think the new troubles are likely to be different from the old troubles this is related these are all you may wish you had a boat You may wish you had you had a vulgar style recession instead of what you're going to get the troubles that come to us could be worse than what Volker was dealing with and harder to fix like what think of all the Latin American countries that print too much money they get the strong man and so forth that's what Plato said happened in the early Greek city-state democracies one person one vote a lot of legality and you get demagogues and the Democrats gogs lather of the population I'm pretty sure you don't have your democracy anymore I I don't think that was a crazy idea on Plato's part I think that accurately described what happened in Greece way back then and it's happen again and again and again in Latin America we don't want to go there this is something from Simon Jacobs who says conventional economic theory argues that excessive monetary and fiscal stimulus over the last two years has triggered the highest inflation in 40 years do you broadly agree with this thesis and more importantly do you think there will be a high economic price to pay as the FED attempts to bring inflation back under control I guess the reasons for it um yeah I agree with it we've done something we've done something pretty extreme and we don't know how bad the troubles will be and whether we're going to be like Japan or or something a lot worse and what makes life interesting is we don't know how it's going to work out I think we do know we're flirting with serious trouble I think we also know that some of our earlier fears were were overblown Japan is still existing as a Civilized Nation in spite of unbelievable excess by all former standards in terms of money printing think about seductive it is you have a bunch of interest-bearing debts and you pay them off with checking accounts which you're no longer paying interest think of how seductive that is for a bunch of legislators you get rid of the interest payments and the money supply goes up it seems like heaven and of course when things get that seductive they're likely to be overused how will this all play out and what's the best advice you have for individual investors to optimally deal with the negative impact of inflation other than owning quality equities it may be that you have to choose the least bad of your a bunch of options that frequently happens in human decision making and the mongers have Berkshire stock Costco stock Chinese stocks a little bit of Daily Journal stock and a bunch of apartment houses do I think that's perfect no do I think it's okay yes I think the great lesson from the mongers is you don't need all this damn diversification that's plenty of you're lucky if you've got four good assets I think the finance professors and the silly idea that perfect diversification is professional investment if you're trying to do better than average you're lucky if you have four things to buy and to ask for 20 is really asking for egg in your beer it's it's very few people get can have enough brains to get 20 good Investments charts technicals momentum and AI seem to dominate the market these days our old school Ben Graham valuation methods dead they'll never die you can't the idea of getting more value than you pay for that's what investment is if you want to be successful you have to get more value than you pay for and so it's never going to be obsolete now you can get a whole body of people that don't even know what they're buying they're just they're just quote quotations on the ticker I don't think it's helpful to have think of the past crazy booms and how they worked out the South Seas bubble the bubble in the late 20s so on and so on WE we've had this since the dawn of capitalism we've had crazy bubbles Leonard ski writes in he says he's a mechanical engineer from Germany do you think it's likely that we will experience a major increase in interest rates in the upcoming decades like for example in the period between 1950 and 1980.
well that of course is a very intelligent question a very difficult question when you throw money when you print money on the scale what modern nations are printing it Japan the United States Europe Etc we're getting into new territory in terms of size the Japanese brought back not only a lot of their own debt but a lot of the Common Stocks so the Federal Reserve System you can't imagine how much money printing Japan has done they haven't had all that much inflation and they it's still a very admirable civilization in fact you you could argue that Japan is one of the more admirable civilizations in the whole world and in spite of all this very extreme government money printing they've done and they haven't had terrible consequences now they've had 25 years of stasis with living standards not improving very much I don't think that came from their macroeconomic policies I think that came from the rise of tough competition for their export Powerhouse from China and Korea but at any rate it's weird what's happening and nobody knows for sure how it's going to work out I think it's encouraging that Japan can spread as much money as it has and remain as civilized and calmest and and admirable as it has and so I hope to God the United States is similar happy outcome but I think the Japanese are better adapted for stasis than we are I think it's a duty-filled civilized bunch of people a lot of them older not many young people and and they just suck it in and cope in our country we have terrible tensions it's way a harder to run a country which is not monoethnic like Japan there's some professor at Harvard that has written extensively on this subject it's way harder to run a nation like the United States with different ethnicities and groups and so forth that is to run Japan there are Japan is basically sort of a monoethnic civilization which is proud of its ethnicity and of course they can cope with it troubles more than better than some other people can uh Charlie Steve Costco there's never anything quite like what we're doing now and we do know from what's happened in other nations if you if you transplant too much money it eventually causes terrible trouble and we are closer to terrible trouble when than we've been in the past but it may still be a long way off I certainly hope so me too
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