Warren Buffett: Where You Should Invest Over The Next Decade

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결론: 이 영상에서는 특정 섹터나 종목, 자산 가격의 1~3개월 방향에 대한 예측이 나오지 않으며, 장기적 기업 인수·경영 철학이 주된 내용이다. [투자 방식] 버핏은 섹터별 전망이나 거시환경을 판단 근거로 삼지 않으며, 기회주의적으로 기업을 검토한다고 밝힌다. 사업 검토 시 처음 5분 안에 가능성을 가늠하고, 예측 가능한 해자(moat)가 있는 기업을 선호한다. [인수 시장] 전통적 기업 인수 시장은 사모펀드(레버리지 바이아웃) 경쟁으로 과열되어 있으며, 이들은 저금리 차입으로 높은 가격을 지불할 수 있어 버크셔가 불리하다고 설명한다. [차별화 요인] 버크셔는 매도자가 사업을 계속 운영하고 직원을 보호하길 원하는 경우 선택받는다고 말하며, 과거 사례(61세 사업가)를 예로 든다. [경영진 보상] 후계자 보상에 대해 버핏은 이미 부유하고 능력 있는 인물이 적절한 보상을 받는 것이 이상적이라고 언급하며, 주주 이익과 연계된 장기 옵션 구조 등을 제시한다. [보상 컨설턴트 비판] 버핏과 멍거는 보상 컨설턴트 산업의 '중간값 따라가기' 관행과 스톡옵션 비용 미반영 문제를 비판한다. 이사회가 주식을 직접 사지 않는 문제도 지적한다. [자본주의 관점] 두 사람은 경영진 보상 구조가 자본주의 체제의 신뢰를 훼손할 수 있다고 경고하며, 미국 기업 전반은 잘 작동해 왔다고 평가한다. [리스크] 영상 내 직접적인 투자 리스크 언급은 없고, 보상 제도 및 인수 시장 과열이 장기 리스크 요인으로 간접 제시된다. [출연자 전망] 특정 자산에 대한 단기 전망은 없음.

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01. my question is um where do you want to go fishing for the next three to five years which sectors are you most bullish on and which sectors are you most bearish on thank you yeah Charlie and I do not really discuss sectors much um nor do we let the macro environment or thoughts about it enter into our decision we're really opportunistic and we we obviously are looking at all kinds of businesses all the time I mean it's a hobby with us almost probably more with me than Charlie but we're hoping we get a call and we've got we've got a bunch of filters and I would say this through both of us we probably know in the first five minutes or less whether something is likely to or has a reasonable chance of happening uh and it's just going to go through there and it and it's going to the first question is can we really ever know enough about this to come to a decision you know and and that knocks out a whole bunch of things and and here's a few and and then if it makes it through there there's a there's a pretty good reasonable chance we're gonna we may do something but it's not sector specific it we do love the companies obviously with the moats around the product along where where consumer Behavior can be perhaps predicted further out but I would say it's getting harder to for us anyway to anticipate consumer Behavior than we might have thought 20 or 30 years ago I think that that uh that's just a tougher game now but we'll measure and we'll look at it in terms of Returns on present Capital Returns on prospective capital we may have we can a lot of people give you some signals as to what kind of people they are even in talking in the first five minutes and and whether you're likely to actually have a satisfactory arrangement with them over time so a lot of things go on fast but it we know those kind of sectors we kind of like that or the type of business we'd kind of like to end up in uh but we don't really say we're going to go after companies in this field or that field or another field the uh Charlie you wanna yeah some of our subsidiaries do a little bold on Acquisitions that make sense and that's going on all the time and of course we like it but I would say the general field of buying whole companies it's gotten very competitive there's a huge industry of doing these leveraged buyouts that's what I still call them the people who do them think that's a kind of a bad marker so they say they do private equity you know it's like making a Jailer called himself a chief of engineering or something and but anyway the people do the leverage buyouts they can Finance practically anything in about a week or so through Shadow Banking and they can pay very high prices and get very good terms and so on so it's very very hard to buy businesses and we've done well because there's a certain small group of people that don't want to sell the private equity and they love the business so much they they don't want to just dress up for resale well you had a guy some years ago came to see me and he was 61 at the time and he uh he said look I've got a buying business I got all the money I can possibly need but he said there's only thing one there's only one thing that worries me when I drive to work actually there's more than one guys told me that let's use the same term there's only one thing that bothers me when I go to work you know something happens to me today my wife's left you know I've seen these cases where Executives in the company try to buy them out cheap or they sell to a competitor and all the people he says I don't want to leave her with a business I want to decide where it goes but I want to keep running it and I love it and he said I thought about selling it to a competitor but if I sell it to a competitor you know their CFO is going to become the CFO of the new company and they're you know on down the line and all these people who help me build the business you know a lot of them are going to get dumped and I'll walk away with a ton of money and some of them will lose their job he said I don't want to do that and they said I can sell it to him leverage buyout firm uh who would prefer to call themselves travel in equity but they're going to leverage it to the health and they're going to resell it and they're going to dress it up some but in the end it's it is not going to be in the same place I don't know where it's going to go I said I don't want to do that so he said it isn't because you're so special he says there just isn't anyone else if you're ever proposing to a potential spouse don't use that line but that's what he told me and I took it well and we made a deal so uh logically unless somebody has that attitude we should lose in this market I mean you can borrow so much money so cheap and we're looking at the money as pretty much all Equity capital and we are not competitive with somebody that's going to have a very significant portion of the purchase price carried in debt maybe averaging you know four percent or something and he won't take the losses so it goes down he gets part of the profit if it goes up yeah it's calculus is just so different than ours and and he's got the money to make the deal so if all you care about is getting the highest price for your business you know we are not a good call uh and and we will get some calls in any event and uh we can't offer something that that wouldn't call it unique but it's unusual uh the person that sold us that business and a couple of others that actually it's almost word for word the same thing they say they are all happy with the sale they make very happy and uh you know they are they have lots and lots and lots of money and they're doing what they love doing which is still running the business and they they know that they made a decision that will leave their family and the people who work with them all their lives in the best possible position and that's in their equation they have they have done what's best but that is not the equation of many people and it certainly isn't the equation of somebody who buys and borrows every dime they can with the idea of reselling it after they you know maybe dress up the accounting and do some other things and uh but they're when the disparity gets so wide between what I heavily never did finesse purchase will bring as against an equity type purchase it it gets to be tougher there's just no question about it and it'll it'll stay that way but it's been tough for a long time and we've bought some good businesses yeah yeah okay Andrew Warren uh this comes uh from a shareholder I think is here who has to remain anonymous uh writes three years ago you were asked at the meeting about how you thought we should compensate your successor you said it was a good question and you would address it in the next annual letter we've been patiently waiting can you tell us now at least philosophically how you've been thinking about the way the company should compensate your successor so we don't have to worry when the pay Consultants arrive on the scene yeah well that unfortunately at my age I don't have to worry about things I say Century years ago but this guy obviously much younger remembers I'm not well I'll accept his word that I said that at the uh there's a couple possibilities actually uh I don't want to get into details on them but you may have and I actually would hope that we would have somebody a is already very rich which they should be then been working a long time and are got that kind of ability that's very rich and really is not motivated by whether they have ten times as much money as they and the families can need or a hundred times as much and they might even wish to perhaps add an example of by engaging for something far lower than actually what you could say their true market value is and that could or could not happen but I think it'd be terrific if it did but but I can't I can't blame anybody for wanting their market value and then uh if they didn't elect to go in that direction I would say that you uh would probably pay them a very modest amount and then have an option which increased in value by or increase in Striking price annually Nobody Does this hardly the Washington Graham Holdings has done it the Washington Post company did a little bit but would increase because assuming that there were substantial retained earnings every year because why should somebody regain a bunch of earnings and then claim they'd actually improve the value simply because they withheld the money from shareholders so it's very easy to design that and in private companies people do design it that way they just don't want to do it in public companies if they get more money the other way uh but they might have a very substantial one that could be exercised but whether shares holders shares had to be held for a couple years after retirement so that they really got the result over time that the majority of the stockholders would be able to get and not be able to pick their spots as to uh when they exercised and sold a lot of stock it would it's not hard to design and it really depends who you're dealing with in terms of actually how much they care about money and having money beyond what they can possibly use and most people do have an interest in that and I don't blame them uh but I don't know what do you think Charlie well I one thing I think is I was avoided all my life compensation Consultants to me it's a hardly can find the words to express my content I would say this if the board hires the compensation consultant after I go I will come back mad mad so I think there's a lot of mumbo jumbo in this field and I don't I don't see it going away oh it isn't going to go away yeah no it's going to get worse I mean the if you look at I mean the way compensation gets handled it you know everybody looks at everybody else's proxy statement says we can't possibly hire a guy that hasn't been it's ridiculous so on and and the human relations department you know work for the CEO come in and suggested consultant what consultant is ever going to get another assignment he says you should pay your your CEO below the down in the fourth quartile because you're getting a fourth quartile result I mean it just it it isn't that the people are evil or anything it's just the nature of the situation just it produces a result that is not consistent with how representatives of the ownership should be it's even worse than that capitalism is the is the Golden Goose that that we all live on and if people generally get so they have content for it because they don't like to pay arrangements and the system your capitalism may not last as well and and that's like killing the Golden Goose so I I think the existing system has a lot wrong with it there is something coming in pretty soon I may be wrong about this Square companies are going to have to put in their privacy statement the CEOs pay to the average pay or something like that that isn't going to change anything I mean it won't change that thing it won't change the thing and you know it'll cost us by the way it won't get any headlines either um it'll be tucked away it'll cost us a lot of money with 367 000 people employed around the world and I mean we'll hope to get something that makes it somewhat simpler so we can use estimates or something of the sort but to get the median income or meet income or whatever however the rules May read you know and that's what Consultants are forewarned yeah it it's you know it is human nature that produces this and you know the most I write in this letter to the managers every two years I said the only excuse I won't take on something is that everybody else is doing it but of course everybody else is doing it is exactly the rationale for why people did not want to count the cost of stock options as a car I mean it was ridiculous all these CEOs went to Washington they got the Senate I think to vote 88 to 9 to say the stock options aren't a cost and then a few years later you know that it became so obvious that that they finally put it in so it was a cost you know it reminded me of Galileo or something I mean all these guys worse yeah way worse they both behave better than Galileo than you well anyway it's it I would hope you know like I say somebody whoever and it doesn't even have to be I'm not talking about the current success or anybody else I mean these successors down the line are probably going to gotten very very well say by the time the running Berkshire and and they the incremental value of of wealth gets very close to zero uh at some point and and uh there is a chance to use it as a as a different sort of model but I don't have any problem if it's a system is devised that recognizes retained earnings nobody I've never heard anybody talk about it uh you know at the 20 boards I've been honored you know if you if you and I were Partners in a business you know and we kept retaining earnings in the business and I kept having the value to buy a portion of you out at a constant price you say this is idiocy but of course that's the way all the option systems are designed and it's better to be to the CEO and for the consultants and and of course usually if this there's some correlation between what CEOs are paid and what boards are paid if CEOs were getting paid at the rate that they got paid 50 years ago adapted to prison dollars director paid would be lower so it's you know it's got all these built-in things that to some extent uh uh sort of Kindle the no Berkshire director has done it for the money well they are they own a lot of stock and they bought it in the market just like this yeah yeah it's a very old-fashioned system I looked at one company the other day and seven of the directors had never bought a share of stock with their own money now they've been given stock but not one of those not one of the I mean I should say not one seven other directors I never actually bought a share of stock and there they are you know making decisions on who should be CEO and how they should be paid and all that sort of thing but then they've never felt like shelling on a dollar themselves now they've been given a lot of stock it's you know we're dealing with human nature here folks and that what you want is to have a system that works well in spite of how human nature is going to drive it and and we've done awfully well in this country in that respect I mean American businesses overall has done very very well for for the Americans generally uh but not every aspect of it is exactly what you want to teach your kids