저자: CharlieMunger및WarrenBuffett · 외국인
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버핏·멍거는 1929년 대공황 등 시기적 행운과 미국에서 태어난 이점을 언급하며, 오늘날 태어난 세대도 확률적으로 유리하다고 본다. 멍거는 과거처럼 경쟁이 약하지 않으니 시기 운만으로는 부족하다고 말한다. 2008~09년 고IQ 전문가가 많았음에도 Daily Journal 투자 기회를 오래 기다려 잡았다는 일화가 나온다. 좋아하는 일을 찾아 열정으로 일하라는 조언이 핵심이다. 특정 종목이나 자산에 대한 가격 예측 발언은 없다.
다듬은 글
I cannot remember an important decision that Warren has made when he was tired. He's never tired. He sleeps soundly and he he he he he doesn't waste time thinking about what he's going to eat as you say he just eats what's what he's always eaten. Oh yeah, his his style turns out to be absolutely ideal for human cognition.
It looks peculiar but he stumbled into something very good. You can write the forward to my next book. Okay. Bill Gross made recent comments that his generation of investors, yourselves included, owed a deal of their success to timing. Do you agree with Bill's comment? And do you think a similar opportunity will provide itself to today's investors?
Thank you. Yeah, there's no question that being born in the United States uh was a huge huge huge advantage to me and as I've pointed out in a recent article being born male was a big advantage. I would not have had the same opportunities in the investment or in all in business world remotely uh that I've had if I'd been a female born in 1930 uh and the timing could have been a little better uh actually my dad was a security salesman and and and uh uh you know, I was conceived in in uh uh November 1929 and if you remember the stocks had gone down dramatically at that time and there really wasn't anybody to call on uh for my dad and then there wasn't any television at home or anything so here I am, you know, at uh So, I feel myself very lucky uh that the crash of 1929 came along uh and that also provided a decade more than a decade of people who were very turned off.
Well, it it was a a decade of terrible business for quite a while and then a decade of or more of people that were turned off on stocks just as we sort of had a decade like that in the past decade going up to 2010 or so of people that a lot of people that had gotten turned off by stocks. So, that was that was a favorable environment.
Um but the United States itself was an incredibly favorable environment. If I'd been born 5 years earlier, I probably would have made more money but if I'd been born 10 or 15 years later, I would have made probably less money but it I I I I envy the baby that's being born today in the United States.
I mean, I think on a probability basis that's the luckiest individual that's ever been born and I think that they will do very well in life in all kinds of ways on a probability basis uh better than existed when when I was born uh and I think they'll have opportunities to do very well in the investment field.
It may may not be as good uh a field as as it was for me starting in 19 say 50 51 or thereabouts uh but it will be a very good field to operate in. The the the person that has a passion for investing born today coming of age 20 years from now uh is likely in my view to do very well and the to live far better than we live today just as we live far better than John D.
Rockefeller lived uh uh many years ago. Charlie? Well, the competition was very weak in your early days and I don't think that the competition is as weak now. So, I I think sure we got advantages from timing. And uh and but I don't think that means there's nothing to be done ahead. But Charlie, in 2000 8 and 9 there were all all kinds of high IQ Yeah.
highly experienced investment professionals. I mean, thousands and thousands and thousands of them. And you invested at the Daily Journal Company in some equities that X that are worth what? Three X or four X now or something like that. That's right. Yeah, well, I call that opportunity but maybe routine to him but Yeah, but
but I sat for a lot of years before I did it. But it still became available. Oh yes, I I but you were drowning in opportunities when I first knew you. You were not waiting for I wasn't drowning in money unfortunately. Oh well, you you what you liked was money. Yeah. Well, now we got money and no ideas.
Okay, station Station 10. Station 10? Do we have a station 10? Let's take a look. Should be right over there. Hi. Hi. My name is Dexter Ang. I'm from Stafford, Virginia. Uh I'm 30 years old and I'm wondering what my life will be like in a few years let alone 50 years from now. My question for both Mr.
Buffett and Mr. Munger is how do you think you've changed over the last 50 years and if you could communicate to yourself 50 years ago, what would you tell them? One piece of advice, business or personal, and how would you do it in a way where your former self would actually heed it? Charlie, I'll let you answer that.
Incidentally, I'll trade you places so don't worry about your future. Yeah, we're we're basically so old-fashioned that it it we're boringly trite. We think you ought to keep plugging along and stay rational and stay energetic and it just all the old virtues still work. And uh but find what you turn on.
No. Yeah, you got to you got to work where you're turned on. I don't know about Warren but I have never succeeded to any great extent in something I didn't like doing. Charlie and I both started in the same grocery store and neither one of us are in the grocery business. We were not going to be promoted either and even though you had the family name.
Yeah. My grandfather was right, too. Go ahead. It's really I mean, if you're lucky and Charlie and I were lucky in this respect, we we've well, we were lucky to be in this country to start with but we we we've we found things we like to do very early in life and then we you know, we we pushed very hard in doing those things but we were enjoying it while we while we did it.
We have had so much fun running Berkshire. I mean, it's it's almost sinful and and uh but we were lucky to you know, my my dad happened to be in a business that he didn't find very interesting but I found very interesting and so when I would go down on Saturday, there were a lot of books to read and you know, it uh it just flowed from a very early age and and Charlie found he found a
You found a way to atone by your for your sins and having so much fun. You're giving all the money back. Well, yeah, but you give it all back whether you want to or not in the end. Yeah, that's true, too.
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