저자: CharlieMunger · 외국인
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분산투자는 무지한 투자자를 위한 것이며 전문 투자자는 확신이 큰 기회에 집중해야 한다는 주장. 버크셔는 워렌 버핏 체제에서 소수 종목에 집중하며 웰스파고 등을 보유 중. 장기적으로 미국 자본주의의 회복력은 강하며 경기침체는 있어도 결국 성장한다는 낙관론을 제시.
다듬은 글
The whole secret of investment is to find places where it's safe and wise to non-diversify. It's just that simple. Diversification is for the know-nothing investor. It's not for the professional. And there's nothing wrong with the know-nothing investor practicing it. It's exactly what they should practice.
It's exactly what a good professional investor should not practice. But that's you know, there's no contradiction in that. That uh a know-nothing investor will get decent results as long as they know they're a know-nothing investor. Diversify as to time they purchase their equities and as to the equities they purchase.
That's crazy for somebody that really knows what they're doing. And uh you will find opportunities that if you put 20% of your net worth in it, you have wasted the opportunity of a lifetime, you know, in terms of not really loading up. And uh um we've had the chance to do that way, way in our past when we were working with small sums of money.
We'll never get a chance to do that working with the kinds of money that Berkshire does. We try to load up on things. Uh uh and there will be markets when we get a chance to from time to time, but very seldom do we get to buy as much of any good idea as we would like to. Basically, the Munger family's in two or three things only.
We're Diversification is my idea of not something I have virtually no interest in except as it happens automatically in a big place like Berkshire. Uh I rejoiced the day I got rid of a quote, you know, a stock quoting machine. You know. And uh I like this buy-and-hold investing. It's a lovely way to live a life and you deal with a little better class of people.
And and it's worked pretty well for all of us. So, and I don't think you need worry about where he where Ensign Investments is. Investments are Berkshire so huge and those are so small relatively that if that's your main problem in life, you have a very favored life. Well, if you have 98 and a half percent of your money in Berkshire and you really are trying to do your thinking about what's best for the one and a half percent, you're a little bit crazy.
You should be thinking about Berkshire, which I can assure you I do. But that you know, there could be And and he does like Wells Fargo better than JP Morgan. Yeah, I do. Yeah. And we have 400 and some million shares of Wells Fargo in in in Berkshire. And I think I like JP Morgan fine, obviously, and then but uh I know Wells better.
It's easier to understand. Uh uh So, you know, what we Well, we we we we we bought Wells Fargo in the first quarter. We bought Wells Fargo last year. We We bought her an awful a lot of years and uh uh if I wasn't managing Berkshire, you know, but instead was sitting with my own money, I'd have I'd have a lot of money in Wells Fargo and I'd probably have some money in JP Morgan, too.
When I got out of school in 19 in 1951, the two people I admired the most in the world, my dad and Ben Graham, both said, you know, you've got a good future, but don't start in stocks now because there's never been a year when the Dow Jones average has not ended up uh below 200. And it's above 200 now, it's much too high.
And if you start now selling stocks to people, they're going to have bad experiences. And so, why don't you go wait a while, go work in the Amon National Bank or do something. Park yourself on the sidelines. Uh there's always negatives. Uh the country always faces problems. I mean, this country went through you know, it went through a civil war.
You know, it it it's gone through all kinds of things. But what happens? You know, we have a few lousy years from time to time. I mean, we've had probably 15 recessions since the country started. And we will always have a list of 10 or 15 things at the start of the year that will tell you why you know, this country can't possibly work well.
But all I can tell you is that do it doesn't do it in a straight line. But the the power of capitalism uh is incredible. I mean, it you know, that's that's what is bringing us out of this recession. I mean, monetary and fiscal policy uh has some utility and certainly in the fall of 2008, the government was needed in a huge huge way.
It could do what was it was the only one that could do what was needed. But if you look at the history of the United States, you know, probably half of our recessions have occurred during uh we'll say in the 19th century when people didn't even know what fiscal or monetary policy was. I mean, it what happened was that excesses would come in and then the the resuscitative power of capitalism would would uh set the country back on the right on on on a stronger growth pattern.
And that's happened time after time after time. And the game isn't over. What has happened is the rest of the world has caught up to some extent. So, you're seeing, you know, some state capitalism in places like China and they're they're turning economies loose that have been dormant for centuries. Uh but it's not because the people are smarter.
It's not because they work harder. It's just because they have tapped into a system that works marvelously over time. And I will tell you in the next 100 years, you're going to have probably 15 maybe maybe as many as 20 lousy years, but we will be so far ahead of where we are now that that uh will be unrecognizable.
Charlie? Well, I think you can go back a lot farther than that. You know, Europe survived the Black Death where about a third of the people died. Uh the world is going to go on. That's wildly optimistic for Charlie. Have you got anything more encouraging than that to say, Charlie? Well, I don't know.
I kind of I understand a little bit of Dick Holland's point of view. And by the way, I've known him a long time. He aced me out of any hope of being the chief camel snuffer at the Unitarian Church. He was so damn good at it. Anyway, uh What was the question? Can you can you bring yourself to say anything optimistic?
Well, I have a little bit of of uh a twist on that. And so, I would say that you can be cheerful even if things are slightly deteriorating. And that's a very good quality to have. I have a personal saying that that has always amused me. I say the politicians are never so bad you don't live to want them back.
100 years from now, Warren and Charlie, what would each of you like to be remembered for? Old age. Yeah, I've heard Warren say that he he once said at his funeral It's the oldest looking corpse I ever saw. I have a different saying that came down from one of my great-grandfathers. And I think it He wanted to be remembered for a fortune fairly won and wisely used.
That's a pretty good system. Yeah, I would If If you really ask me, I I probably like teacher. I enjoy teaching a lot and uh and some people think I do a little too much of the didactic stuff, but I I like students coming and and uh
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