저자: WarrenBuffett · 외국인
요약 보기
주식을 분/일 단위 가격 변동으로 판단하는 것은 어리석다고 주장. 주식은 사업의 일부이며 농장 비유(매일 가격을 제시하는 이웃)로 설명. 시장 가격 변동에 흔들리지 말고 레버리지 없이 미국 기업 전체(S&P 500 인덱스)에 장기 투자할 것을 권고. 예측 전문가와 판매자의 조언에 과도하게 의존하지 말라고 경고.
다듬은 글
Going back to stocks. People bring the attitude to them too often. But because they are liquid and quoted minute by minute that it's an important that you develop an opinion on them minute by minute. Now, that's really foolish when you think about it. It uh And that's something Graham taught me in 1949.
I mean that single thought stocks were parts of businesses and not just little things that moved around on charts or charts were very popular in those days and whatever it may be. Imagine for a moment that you decided to invest money now and you bought a farm. And the farmland around here uh let's say you bought 160 acres.
And you bought it at X per share or per acre. And the farmer next to you had 160 identical acres, same contour you know same same quality of soil quality, so it was it was identical. And that farmer next door to you uh was a very peculiar character. Because every day that farmer with the identical farm said, "I'll sell you my farm or I'll buy your farm at a certain price which he would name." Now, that's a very obliging neighbor.
I mean, that's got to be a plus to have a fellow like that with the next farm. Uh you don't get that with farms. You get it with stocks. You want a 100 shares of General Motors now on Monday morning somebody will buy you 100 shares or sell you another 100 shares at the exactly the same [clears throat] price and that goes on you know, 5 days a week.
Uh uh but just imagine if you had a farmer doing that. When you bought the farm, you looked to what the farm would produce. That was what went through your mind. You were saying to yourself, I'm paying X dollars per acre. I think I'll get so many bushels of corn or soybeans on average. Some years good, some years bad, some years the price will be good, some years the price will be bad, etc.
But you think about the potential of the farm. And now you get this idiot that uh buys the farm next to you and and on top of that he's sort of a manic depressive and drinks, maybe smokes a little pot. So his numbers just go all over the place. Uh now the only thing you have to do is to remember that this guy next door is there to serve you and not to instruct you.
You bought the farm because you thought the farm was uh had the potential. You don't really need a quote on it. Uh you know, if you bought in with John D. Rockefeller or Andrew Carnegie and then and then there were never any quotes well, there were quotes later on, but but basically uh you bought into the business.
And that's what you're doing when you buy stocks. But you get this added advantage that you do have this neighbor who you're not obliged to listen to at all who is going to give you a price every day and he's going to have his ups and downs and maybe he'll name a silly price that he'll buy at in which case you sell if you want to uh or maybe he'll name a very low price and you'll you'll buy his farm from him.
Uh but you don't have to. And you don't want to put yourself in a position to where where you have to. So, stocks have this enormous inherent advantage of people yelling out prices all the time to you. And [clears throat] many people turn that into a disadvantage. And of course, many people can profit in one way or another from telling telling you that they can tell you what this farmer's going to yell out tomorrow or next your neighboring farmer's going to yell out tomorrow or next week or next month.
There's huge money in it. So, people tell you that it's important and they know and that uh you should pay a lot of attention to their thoughts about what price changes should be or you tell yourself that there should be this great difference. But the truth is if you own the businesses you liked prior to the virus arriving.
Uh uh it changes prices and it changes uh but nobody's forcing you to sell. And if you really like the business and you like the management you're in with and the business hasn't fundamentally changed and I'll get to that a little when I report on Berkshire, uh which I will soon, I promise. Uh the uh uh stocks have an enormous advantage.
And you still can bet on America, but you can't bet unless you're willing and have an outlook uh to independently decide that you want to own a cross-section of America because I don't think most people are in a position to pick single stocks. Uh uh a few maybe, but but on balance, I think people are much better off buying a cross-section of America and just forgetting about it.
If you'd done that if I'd done that when I got out of college, it's all I had to do to make a hundred for one, and I collect dividends on top of it, uh which increased which increased substantially over time. The American tailwind is marvelous. American business represents, and it's going to have interruptions, and you're not going to foresee the interruptions, and you do not want to get yourself in a position where those interruptions can can affect you either because you're leveraged or because you're psychologically unable to handle uh looking at a bunch of numbers.
If If you really had a farm, uh and you had this neighbor, and one day he offered you $2,000 an acre, and the next day he offers you $1,200 an acre, and maybe the day after that he offers you $800 an acre, are you really going to feel that at $2,000 an acre when you would have evaluated what the farm would produce, are you going to let this guy drive you into thinking I better sell because his number keeps coming in lower all the time.
It's It's a very, very, very important uh matter to bring the right psychological approach to owning common stocks, but I will tell you if you uh bet on America and sustain that position for decades, you're going to do better than than in my view, far better than owning Treasury securities or far better than following people who tell you that what the farmer's going to yell out next.
Uh uh There's huge amounts of money that that people pay for advice they really don't need, and for advice where the person giving it is can can be very well-meaning in it and believe their own uh line, but the truth is that that you can't have you can't deliver superior results to everybody by just having them trade around a business if you bought into uh a business that's going to deliver what the business produces and and the idea that you're going to outsmart the person next to you or that the person advising you can outsmart the next the person sitting next to you is is uh well, it's really the wrong approach.
So, but uh uh find businesses that a cross-section [clears throat] In my view, for most people, the best thing to do is to own the S&P 500 index fund. People will try and sell you other things because there's more money in it for them if they do. And I'm not saying that that's a conscious uh act on their part [clears throat] that they most most good sales people believe their own baloney.
I mean, that's part of being a good salesperson and uh I'm sure I've done that in my life, too, but it's it's very human. If you keep repeating something long enough, that's what lawyers get at the witnesses keep saying things over and over again that at the time they got on the witness stand, they'll they'll uh they'll believe it whether it was true in the first place or not, but they they uh you are dealing with something fundamentally advantageous in my view in owning Goldman Sachs.
I will bet on America the rest of my life and I hope my successors at Berkshire do it. Now, we do it in two different ways. We do it by buying entire businesses and we buy parts of businesses and I would like to uh emphasize that well, I'd like to give you a few figures that uh will tie in from our uh activities in the first quarter and also what we've done in April.
We are not right about We [clears throat] do try to pick the businesses that we think we understand. We don't buy the S&P 500. But uh uh and we like to buy the entire businesses when we buy them. Uh but we don't get a chance to do that very often. Most of the best businesses uh are not available for sale in their entirety.
Uh but we don't mind in the least buying partial interests uh in businesses and uh uh we would rather own 6% [clears throat] or 7% of you know, a wonderful company and regard it as a partnership interest essentially in that company. Uh and that we get an opportunity to do that through marketable securities and sometimes we get more opportunities than others. And with that, I hope I've convinced you to uh to bet on America.
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