저자: Osprey · 외국인
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결론: 비트코인은 단기 과열 구간이며 조정 가능성이 있으나, 상승 추세는 아직 유효하다는 기술적 분석 영상. [비트코인 차트] 1,000달러 돌파 후 상승 추세 유지. 현재 가격은 약 11,400달러로 상단 볼린저밴드를 돌파한 과열 상태(RSI 72, Fast%K 100). 지난 8월·11월과 같이 밴드 상단 돌파 후 되돌림 패턴 반복 가능성 언급. [비트코인 주요 지지·저항] 9일 단순이동평균(EMA) 아래 하락 시 조정 신호. 지지선은 약 10,616달러(EMA 4일), 이탈 시 약 9,959달러, 중간 볼린저밴드 약 8,334달러. 상승 추세선 유지 시 추가 상승 가능, 이중천정 패턴도 주의. [비트코인 선물] 12월 10일(일요일) 비트코인 선물 거래 개시를 앞두고 변동성 확대 가능성 언급. 차익 실현 매물 출현 가능성 제기. [GBTC 및 NYXBT] NYXBT 역시 상단 볼린저밴드 돌파 및 RSI 과열 상태. GBTC는 주말 변동성 이후 월요일 움직임 주목 필요. [OSTK] 50일 이동평균 지지대에서 반등 양봉 패턴(약세 잉태형 반전) 출현. 47~48달러 상단(EMA 4일) 돌파 시 상승 신호, 52달러 부근 저항 돌파 필요. 실패 시 50일선 41달러 부근 하락 위험. [NVDA] 50일 단순이동평균 이탈 후 급락, 183~184달러 지지에서 반등 여부 관건. 180달러선(100일선) 지지 실패 시 152달러(200일선)까지 하락 위험. 15분봉에서 중간 볼린저밴드 및 50일선 상향 돌파 시 반등 확인 필요. [AMD] 약세 장세. 상단 볼린저밴드 및 주요 이동평균 아래 머물며 하락 추세 지속. 10달러 이중바닥(5월 저점) 지지 확인이 핵심, 이탈 시 9.5달러 구간 지지 필요. 10.56달러(EMA 4일) 돌파 및 11.23달러 회복 시 추세 전환 가능. [SSC] 고점(4.90달러) 대비 큰 폭 조정 후 중간 볼린저밴드(약 2.40달러)에서 지지 확인 중. 2.40달러 지지 유지 시 반등, 4.61달러(EMA 4일) 돌파 시 3.00달러(상단 밴드) 목표 가능. [기타 관련 종목] 영상에서 특정 한국 종목·지수에 대한 언급 없음. [리스크] 비트코인 단기 과열에 따른 급조정 가능성, 선물 거래 개시 이후 변동성 확대, 주요 지지선 이탈 시 추가 하락. [출연자 전망] 비트코인 상승 추세 유지 가능성 제시하나 단기 조정 대비 권고. 개별 종목은 지지선 확인 후 대응 강조.
다듬은 글
hi everybody this is Osprey from my chart coach calm and in this video we're gonna take a look at Bitcoin and some of the Bitcoin related stocks so as you can see here this is the man it has here we go you can see this is the chart we've been working on here on trading view and and you know it had formed the the tight channels it here and then it broke out and then it ran up to the next level form the tight channel broke out and then what happened was on the candle here on the first of December I broke above this red a sending resistance line which was the top of the channel and so now it's been riding that's that that has turned into support and so we're using it now as a sort of stop loss level it once the share price closes below this red line that's going to be a signal of the charts cooling down it's currently at 1111 500 and so you know it has to pull back you know we would have to pull back to do that but it would be the closed below that would be a signal that that it's it's starting to pull back into this previous channel and so as long as it's riding above this red line the chart is super strong you know it's it's an extremely parabolic right now it's on a crazy push it's doing what we call an Eiffel Tower pattern you know if you if you stretch it out here to the first of the year and you look how steep this pattern is here you know when it gets really vertical like this and it's a double black diamond you know straight straight up cliff you know the pullback to the other side can be steep and so yeah so you have to be concerned about that going forward but right now it's still pushing harder you know keep an eye on the candle here that's forming a red candle could signal that it's starting to cool down the EMA or the simple the the 9-day simple moving average is way down here and so that is the the big support level below this red ascending support line if it came down and it broke below the the 9-day simple moving average that would be a big sign of weakness similar to back here in November when it when it broke below this the blue line here is the nine-day simple moving average provolone that signaled the big pullback and so yeah so just things to look out for you know they are gonna start the futures trading now on CB o-- ease gonna start on Sunday so so keep that in mind so take a look here at the New York Stock Exchange Bitcoin index okay this is NY xbt and so this is pretty cool it is you can see right now it's pushing super hard you've got our RSI back up in the bull zone it's at 72 you have fast o at 100 you know it's it's busting through the upper Bollinger Band right now and so as you can see here that the candle it or not the candle but the share price is above the upper Bollinger Band that is this the purple wine here currently over here at eleven thousand three hundred okay so it's it's at eleven thousand four hundred and twenty two right now it's breaking through if you look at it historically in the past okay so you go back here in August it broke above the upper Bollinger Band and it pulled back it broke above the upper Bollinger Band and pulled back broke above and pulled back okay so you know got above slightly you know hit back into the Bollinger Band and then it shot up but then once it did it pulled back into the bands and then once again that happened again in November and then you know you had the big this big last push right and then and then you know it did have a couple of days where it pushed higher but then they worked back into the bands so here you are again breaking through the top of the upper Bollinger Band so it's getting frothy you have Fastow at a hundred you know it you have to be on the lookout for it cooling down here it may not be today but but it's gonna be in the next you know it's gonna be coming up soon here more than likely where it'll take a breather and then you the big level the hold is gonna be EMA for at ten thousand six hundred and sixteen you know if it drops below EMA for then you can see a drop all the way down here to nine thousand nine hundred and fifty nine it is as long as the middle Bollinger Band way down here at eight thousand three hundred and thirty fours holding this uptrend is intact it's been in this really nice uptrend you know it dropped below here in Timber double bottom got back above and the uptrend continued so as long as the uptrend is happening you know it's it's it's you know can keep heading higher you know keep an eye out for potential double top here but yeah so so what we're thinking is is that heading into the end of the week you know we have to be looking for people to be locking and gains possibly so keep an eye out for that you know cuz P who knows what's gonna happen after the futures trading and so you know they're starting the futures trading the short Bitcoin and so we're gonna see if you know how that plays out on you know Sunday night and then see everybody's not not you know a lot of people if you're in gbtc what might be able to make a move until Monday and so Sunday you know you can see some wild volatility we just have to see what happens who knows this is a big experiment so what's going on here is you've got a really frothy situation you have RSI 88 and Fastow at 99 so fast those nearly maxed here you've got the this candle is forming above the upper Bollinger Band it's been doing that for multiple days you know this has been following bitcoins movement it's pushing really hard it's an 18,000 and and or 824 and if you guys remember you know we had been talking though over and over again about the 1,000 level you know that was right here the the high clothes from back here in September and it seemed like such a big number at the time you know it kept pulling back and everybody thought it was crazy you know the thousand and then finally when it broke above and we did put out the alerts on this on the on the 23rd that was the big signal that wanted to head higher and it's up you know an eight hundred and twenty-four dollars from that from that day you know and a thousand was a break above a thousand was the signal to low because it was breaking out higher we had talked all about that and so that's really cool that that happened and she can see here it looked like there was a cup and you know you got the cup handle break above the neckline in the breakout higher and so what's going on now it is the EMH for at 1648 if that level breaks that's going to be a signal it's going down it's been holding this whole all time you know the last time I broke was over here and that's when it went all the way down to the middle Bollinger Band and that's what could happen here and that would be a major air cut so that's what you have to be on the lookout for it's pushing so hard if you see it drop below that that EMA four and closing below you know there's the next support levels are well below that level and you can see a drop all the way down to that middle Bollinger man okay this okay OST K so overstock.com did bounce today congrats everyone made that the the really nice move as you can see here it formed bullish harami reversal pattern and so we were looking for a bounce off of the 50-day moving average zone a support zone and so that was cool to see it bounce today as you can see here the white candle today formed inside of Friday's red candle and so that Florin bullish harami and so that that was following five red candles in a row and the share price hit the key level the break which is EMA for at 47 48 that's the pink line here it needs to get above that level to head higher a close above EMA for signals more upside and then we'll be looking at trying to break this EMA's 813 in the middle Bollinger Band basically this this 52 51 52 resistance zone and so a close above 47 50 signals it's still in play and it wants to head higher if it fails to break that level that's gonna sing one more downside risk that stocks in a downtrend they write EMA for resistance lower and that would put the 50-day simple moving average at 41 on deck so it's really important that it gets follow through here and it breaks that that that EMA for resistance failed to do so that's gonna be a single with the downturn is strong and it's gonna in it and it could continue heading lower so so really important for it to get back above resistance here and follow-through if you look here at NVDA okay so it this is an example of a stock that broke but it today is simply moving average and kept dropping lower right now it is at very oversold levels on Fastow it sits 6.5 our size at 33 so it's really close to that 30 oversold level it down here what happened today was the big break below the 50-day simple moving average you know we put out the warnings that that needed to hold at 198 that did not hold today and the share price dropped like a rock it came all the way down to the next support level that we said was it could be the potential downside risk and that was the hundred a simple moving average at 180 to notice how it bounced before that you know everybody loaded up their orders at 183 so the share price bounced at you know more 184 185 what was the low today 184 50 so so you have to use game theory you know you know if everybody's shooting for that hundred sometimes you have to put a little bit higher but but right now you don't want to catch the following night you know that that's that that could signal more pain and suffering and so what you need to do is follow the 15-minute chart to try to time the bounce and that needs to turn bullish you need to have candles forming above the middle Bollinger Band and then get above the 50 simple moving average on the 15-minute chart for NVDA to officially move back and be back and play now if it can hold this 183 support level the 100 is simply an average then it could bounce the candles could work back into the bands the next big resistance level the break is EMA for at 195 you know it could work its way back up to that level fail to break it and continue with the downtrend so right now it's in a very strong downtrend the bowls are clear or bears are clearly in control you know it has to hold 100 a simple moving average if it doesn't there's really big downside risk because you have the 200 a simple moving average at 152 is the next support level okay let's look at em ara okay so yeah this failed to follow through today you know it looks promising on Friday with the big clothes above resistance it had a nice open today as you can see here I'm not open it opened at 5:34 and the high was at 540 so the high happened at the beginning of the day and the share price pulled back and it actually formed a bearish pattern today that formed bearish engulfing reversal pattern so this is a strong reversal pattern many times that share price does pull back after this pattern forms we'll see if that's the case that you know with this setup here it's been holding you know eat this 300 days simple moving average at 406 for days so that is the big level right now it has to stay you know it balls to stay really bullish you know they have the chirpy still super strong and you stay above EMA for at 456 that's the pink line if it drops below that that'll be as similar to cooling down and then the must hold level is this 387 million average because if that breaks that you know there's this gap that we've been talking about down here and you could see a drop down to 275 to fill the gap so it needs to hold that for our support zone and you know if it fails to do so could have you know had lower to the if it holds that EMA for then we're looking at the the upper Bollinger Band at 612 and the gap between these two candles to fill so run up to 625 so yeah so keep an eye on it let's look at s SC okay so this stock pulled back it is still in the ball zone on our side still about 50 Fastow now is it oversold levels we had the big move you know had the big run hit up at 490 it pulled back and then the candles had worked their way all the way back down to the middle Bollinger Band it bounced off that level last week on Thursday and then you know it came back down it hit that level again today it's currently at 240 that is the key level to hold notice you have the 300 the 100 the 200 the 50-day simple moving averages all below and then the middle Bollinger Band is the 20-day simple moving average so it's got all the support below alright it just hasn't get back above EMA 4 to 61 if they can get above that level then it could run up to the $3.00 level that's the upper Bollinger Band and in the closing price here on what is that the 23rd 24th and so if we could break that level here on the 24th at 3:15 then that could signal it wants to head higher so this is 240 is the load zone if it holds ok so so it's pullback its consolidated this is where it should bounce if it fails to bounce you know it has all these support levels right here you know it's you know this is a level that it should be able to bounce off it would be a red flag if it didn't ok that's ok AMD ok so yeah this is another one of those broken charts all right it's over sold on RSI so it's down here at these oversold levels where it bounced from before you know Fastow is very oversold as well that you know it's back down here at these bounce levels you know when the stock gets extreme oversold levels you will get a technical balance many times and it just it depends on how quickly will that happen you know it can take a little bit for you know keep dropping in the meantime right now this is hitting the double bond the bottom level okay so this is hitting the ten dollar double bottom level this is where it should bounce alright it's hitting the may bottom alright at ten dollars and right below that is the the January support zone down here between 950 and ten and so this is a huge support zone if it if it fails the whole ten then it needs to hold 950 this is the big level because it could have a big drop further if it fails to bounce off this you know we've been watching this just break through all the moving averages the Bears have just been killing it on this one it's just been super bearish they can't get above the middle Bollinger Band it tried to here couldn't get above the 300-day simple moving average kept dropping lower now had another big pullback there was some loading off a blow up day notice the lower wick so that's promising with that with the with the the volume spike you know people were you know there's bottom feeders here well the big level of break is the EMA for at 10:56 then get above that level then it can work its way back above the middle Bollinger Band it has to get all the way back up to 11 23 and turn the level on the support to get a new Uptrend going so it has a lot of work to do keep an eye on a and D for potential bounce off this 950 to ten dollar support zone okay thank you very very much for viewing this video if you'd like to learn 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