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Charlie Munger and Ken Griffin are right about 2023 prediction from recession to depression a long way to go down for stocks oil just dropped to 75 dollars a barrel on Monday morning as TLT was up in the green dollar is going higher as stocks are heading lower at least for the high betas dogs this is a deflationary recession signal at the start of this year oil was at 74 dollars a barrel even in the Ukraine war and European energy crisis we are low on refining capacity the demand is getting weaker based on the price of the oil this is showing the FED is doing the right thing as Dr Lacey hunt said all they need to do is keep going they need to crush inflation like a bug and do whatever it takes but will they do that what will happen if the FED decides to Pivot Charlie Munger and Ken Griffin are both one of the most successful billionaires of our time what are these billionaire investors predictions on where the FED will take us in 2023 will it be a recession or a depression or a stayflation ro economy stocks bonds and commodity markets if you like any of these topic good boy go to patreon.com magical goddess Cheryl to add more meaning into your life if you play your cards right and completely submit like my good boys do then I will take you under my wing you are such a good boy you like hearing that don't you you want it to be real you want it to be true you need to be my client don't you oil price is extremely hard to predict in the short term for a lot of oil experts didn't see this five percent drop coming there are a lot of speculation in a lot of commodity trades check this chart out within three hours oil is bounced back to 79 dollars a barrel from the low at seventy five dollars a barrel anyways oil drop lower means demand is getting weaker now let's Dive Right into Charlie's thoughts Charlie Munger supports the federal reserve's efforts to crush inflation even if they drag the U.S economy into a mild recession I think the FED is willing to have a little recession in order not to have out of control inflation Warren Buffett's business partner and the 98 year old Vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway said about the fed's policy that's what they're supposed to do they're supposed to be the one guy at the party that doesn't hang around the punch bowl getting drunk yearly inflation soared to a 40-year high of 9.1 percent in June and dipped to 7.7 percent in October the FED has responded to cool the economy and relieve upward pressure on prices it has lifted its Benchmark rate from nearly zero at the start of the year to four percent today and signaled it could Peak above five percent Monger also noted the bank of Japan has maintained a policy of ultra low rates for years if you look at Japan today you would find that their Central Bank has made our Central Bank look like a little mouse that hardly tries to do anything the 98 year old investor said he largely approves of the fed and argued it saved the economy by cutting rates and boosting Bond purchases when the lockdown crisis struck in 2020 we were in enough trouble when this thing started that if the FED hadn't done what it did which was very aggressive we would have had one hell of a mess which would have been way worse than what we have now he said Monger also bemoaned the wild hype and Reckless speculation that drove up the price of stocks cryptocurrencies housing and other assets contributing to Red Hot inflation this year of course in every crazy boom there is crazy excess he said I don't like wrenched excess and manias and so forth and we have a lot of that On a related note the 98 year old investor called out rampant fraud and delusion in the crypto industry days after Sam bankman Freed's FTX exchange collapsed into bankruptcy he said we don't need a new wonderful non-traceable medium that makes it easier to commit frauds of various kinds what is bitcoin doing for anybody Monger gave the example of ransomware attackers demanding Bitcoin as payment it pains me that in my own country I see people who once were regarded as very reputable people helping these coins exist promoting their use and so forth this is a very very bad thing the country did not need a currency that's good for kidnappers and so on the danger flags are waging so clearly a guy says I'm going to sell you plenty of nothing and nothing's plenty for you when you hear that you ought to think this is a big joke but people think this is a real asset it's not a real asset it's a bunch of fraudsters and crazy people nobody can invent a new thing that makes every 12 year old kid a billionaire it's crazy it's demented When I See Magic I believe somebody's trying to fool me I think that's why all these crypto Brokers reported such huge growth like 200 percent to 1 000 percent growth in Revenue in 2021 they all from growing to the moon now to going bankrupt within one year I think that's what Charlie's talking about they are trying to fool those YouTube investors it's partly fraud and partly delusion that's a bad combination I don't like either fraud or delusion and the delusion may be more extreme even than the fraud Munger was discussing whether crypto Executives have good intentions reputation is very helpful in financial life and to destroy your reputation by associating with scumballs and their scumball promotions is a huge mistake a lot of Finance YouTuber promoted these crypto Brokers for at least a year they are getting paid millions and they now have earned a stamp from Taylor Swift's bad reputation now let's get into Ken Griffin's head the billionaire investor and Citadel CEO said FTX is one of these absolute travesties in the history of financial markets people are going to lose billions of dollars that undermines trust in all financial markets when talking about inflation he said we think we have seen Peak inflation we think by the end of 2023 our Central view of inflation will be back to roughly a low to mid two percent range Griffin suggested Metropolitan rents and energy prices have already peaked I can't imagine how many flat screen TVs were sold to Americans that are frankly not used nearly as much today as they were a year ago this shift from a good spaced economy to a service-based economy is going to create depreciation in the pricing of goods which will help bring inflation down for the FED to truly conquer inflation here we're going to put unemployment somewhere in the mid four percent range I find it hard to believe we're not going to have a recession at that point in time sometime in the middle to back half of 2023 it's not yet time for us to change course on our monetary policy we want to see that we put the inflation Genie back in the bottle we've endured a ton of pain in getting to this point the housing market is definitely under duress durable good sales are under duress we haven't gotten the job done to take the foot off the brake right now and not finish the job is the absolute worst mistake the FED could possibly make Griffin explained why the FED can't back down in its inflation fight it's sort of like saying you go to your doctor you've got a bacterial infection and he gives you 10 pills to take and you stop taking them after pill number seven and then you relapse a few days later if we don't finish the course of antibiotics and inflation starts to flare back up the FED will have lost credibility If the Fed loses credibility and inflation expectations on anchor than the amount by which we'll need to raise rates and deter economic growth will be a much bigger bill to pay we shouldn't put ourselves in a position to pay that bill we should get the job done now the United States has no ability to produce anywhere near the number of semiconductors it needs to run its economy we are utterly and totally dependent on the Taiwanese for modern semiconductors in America you can argue that by depriving the Chinese of access to semiconductors we up the risk that they seize Taiwan were playing with fire here if we lose access to Taiwanese semiconductors the hit to U.S GDP is probably in the order of magnitude of 5 to 10 percent it's an immediate Great Depression okay now I'm going to show you my clients David Vine and jama's book um ignite the passion co-create your dreams such an awesome book and my client Teddy Easy's book Wicked perfume it is an erotic novel such an amazing book Teddy easy is such a good boy for being my client and my book time it is a bestseller this one you are such a good boy for watching my video right till the end bye
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