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I think when you're talking about electric vehicles you're not talking just about drivetrain strategies I think that companies that are going to win are not focused only on electric they're focused on autonomous which means they are focused on three of our major Innovation platforms first robotics autonomous vehicles are robots second energy storage they will be electric because the total cost of ownership now for vehicles is lower for electric than gas powered and three artificial intelligence so these are three major platforms artificial intelligence will power these autonomous electric vehicles and we believe that Tesla from a thought leadership point of view is leading the charge so to speak in this movement towards autonomous electric vehicles in terms of your fragmentation point the five thousand dollar Vehicles if you look at the range and performance of those Vehicles there's no comparison to a Tesla Model 3.
the range is very limited the power is very limited so you really do have to adjust when you're talking about price for range and performance which is what we do and I do believe that Tesla has for a given price the best range and performance of any car on the market today we're not just talking about Battery Technology Drive trains when we're talking about autonomous we're talking more about robots energy storage artificial intelligence and we're talking about software as a service so over-the-air software updates I bought my first model 3 in 2018 I have never taken it in for service I have never been to any state Nation I don't have to go to a gas station so think about that how much in the way of cost and convenience I have been saved over these last five years the most important variable we believe in this new AI age is proprietary data and I think if we're looking for killer apps you know a lot of people are trying to compare this to the early days of the internet and we didn't know during the early days of the internet that it was the apps on top of the internet that were going to Garner all of the economics the social networks of course and today what we believe people are missing is that the big winners are going to be those companies that not only have the right AI expertise but also have the right domain expertise if you talk about life sciences and multi-omics DNA RN a proteins methylation you've got to have domain expertise and understand that but even beyond that you have to have your own data so we think that AI is going to cause one of the most profound productivity increases in the history of the world looking at investing you must look at companies and how they're harnessing AI to lower their cost structures that's the first killer app and the other companies that have proprietary data like Tesla will go back to Tesla it has more it has collected over the last five to seven years the highest number of real world driving miles in the world in fact it is probably collected more miles by an order of magnitude than all of the other Auto and tech companies around the world and that's why we think it is in the pole position to develop and win at the autonomous taxi platform strategy the price target for our stock and I think it's just hitting now for 2027 because we do have a five-year investment time Horizon is our expected value is roughly two thousand dollars and that's within a range of 1400 to 25 hundred dollars are bare and bull case the robo taxi opportunity globally will deliver 8 to 10 trillion dollars in Revenue by 2030 and is one of the most important investment opportunities of our lifetimes and I think one of the reasons for that is it is going to save lives 80 to 90 percent of Auto fatalities and auto accidents are caused by human error and auto autonomous driving is going to take away the human error We believe We want Tesla to scale its units because each one of them now represents the potential for a robo taxi in a robotaxi fleet now Elon says it's possible that he could launch that Fleet this year we think it's more like last year but the robo taxi Fleet is really going to be or the robo taxi service is going to be from a margin point of view more like a SAS business and so we think that it's very smart to maximize units because they have so much option value now on the regulatory side I actually think regulations are working in Tesla's favor for I think roughly three decades the number of Auto fatalities in the United States fell to the low 30 000 range per year and they've turned around in the last five years and moved up to 45 000 plus and I think the pressure is on National Highway and Transportation safety Association to change something so it is looking carefully at Tesla's data and during investor day Tesla released some data that we don't think many people paid enough attention to the most important one is that wolf with full self driving a Tesla vehicle gets into an accident every 3.2 million miles and that compares to one every 500 000 miles for the average car on the road in our Flagship strategy which is arkk Tesla is our largest holding but if you look at ARK Q which is autonomous technology and Robotics strategy we also own other names like byd in China and x-pen and a little Neo as well now why do we think EVS are the place to be well we are analyzing Battery Technology but more important drive train technology which includes batteries and if you look at the cost curves associated with drivetrains what you'll see is that for every cumulative doubling in the number of electric vehicles sold produced and sold cost declined by roughly 28 percent and it seems as though already the total cost of ownership of an electric vehicle is lower than that of a gas-powered vehicle which helps us understand why last year electric vehicle sales globally were up I believe it was 62 or 64 percent while gas powered vehicles were down about seven percent globally so the electric vehicle shift is underway consumers want electric vehicles a total cost of ownership cheap cheaper so last year there were 7.7 million electric vehicles sold around the world we think that number is going to 60 million in the next five years now the consensus estimated that it's going to only 20 million so there's still a big gap between where we are and where the consensus view is that 60 million We Believe will account for 75 percent roughly of all vehicles sold in five years so electric vehicle is very important now many people focused on Asia say wait a minute byd is winning here and if you look at last year's sales if you look at hybrids and Battery electric vehicles they were up 211 percent to roughly 1.8 million units whereas Tesla's vehicle sales were only up 40 percent and so the question from Asia is well isn't byd ahead of the game year you might say yes based on those statistics but if you take out hybrid vehicles and we think hybrid is going away hybrid is two systems in one much more complicated much more costly and you look on that basis byd's pure battery electric vehicle sales last year were 900 000 whereas Teslas were 1.4 million around the world but electric is not the whole store story here in fact from our point of view when it comes to Tesla autonomous strategy autonomous taxi platforms is much more important than their electric vehicle strategy and argue our fifteen hundred dollar price target for Tesla it's roughly it's a little over two hundred dollars now but our fifteen hundred dollar price Target in five years is two-thirds because of autonomous and when we listen to byd We do not hear autonomous as a strategy we hear it more with x-pang but again they from a unit volume point of view are far behind byd and Tesla so that's how we're looking at the world right now the first company to get from point A to point B most safely and quickly is probably going to win so we're looking at a lot of winner take most opportunities in this new AI world and the winner take most as I mentioned before is based on bringing in the right AI expertise the right domain expertise for your own businesses and the highest quality and biggest pools of data upon which to train AI
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