저자: InvestorFacts · 외국인
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we have a market today which feels superficially like 2000 and I think it's going to play out initially like to them and then unfortunately it's going to face the Jets into the 70s where the deflationary effects on the economy and the stockpile oh will will result in a world rather like the 70s where all assets are simply much lower price than they are today um a word on on inflation too I completely agree with Ray on on short-term Pro which I I would summarize monetary and and general Federal Reserve over stimulus for 30 35 years the war and covid all of those three influences guaranteeing that we have uh relatively intractable problem in the short intermediate set well what what worries me is the longer term Arguments for inflation which is one we are running out of people in China where the 500 million extra farmers precipitated globalization they have now had diminishing cohorts of 20 year olds or 20 years and they are guaranteed since they're alive now we know the baby coverts are dropping like a stone they are simply going to have a shortage of Labor as is the developed world together that is not a trivial block the developed World Plus China all of them will be squeezed for labor after the Bubonic plague they had a hundred year honeymoon period in which wages went up so much it wasn't reached for another several hundred years in the industrial revolution and we are entering a period where labor is simply scarce which feels to me inflationary and at the same time we have a scarcity beginning in reason and we keep an original unusual uh index a GMO it's 36 equal weighted important the most important commodity so it's not dominated by oil and it showed a declining pattern for 102 years from 1900 to 2002 and yes it was interrupted by World War one and World War II and OPEC why wouldn't it be but it wanted to go down it went down 70 it took the index down to 30.
today 120 two years later the index is down 10 percent it has gone to 90. the average important commodity has just spent the last 20 years going from 30 to 90. it has tripled the reason is of course the growth of China but I believe very passionately looking at the data that it also represents uh the intrinsic scarcity the war between deeper wells worse iron ore Etc the best go first the struggle is always between technology which for a hundred years got ahead of scarcity it was two paces down for deeper and three and a half Paces up for technology and now we've reached a phase where we've gone through that stuff and now we have two pieces of technology and three paced it down we the data is screaming at us now for 20 years that we're beginning to run out it doesn't and a war of course and covered with soaked fragile all you have to do is cough now and it ricochets around the world in price spikes and and shortages and bottlenecks and that is the world we better get used to living it we're going to have a world of increasing number of bottlenecks and shortages and the same applies to Foo the U.N food index is higher today anytime in the history of the last 50 years since it stopped okay so you you have price pressure on raw materials Metals food you have price pressure long term on labor this surely deal like a new era in which inflation will be part of the background music just like it was in the 20th century and perhaps Lawson Ray also mentioned the dangers of high debt levels and you've certainly spoken about that in the past and so could you share some of your thoughts there as well the risk of a debt bubble breaking the rest of the equity bubble break have simply not been understood by our Federal Reserve since Volvo they are incredibly 90 they haven't even got a clue they're not even interested in the ID the idea Bernanke is saying all the U.S housing markets always has never been it merely reflects us from the U.S economy Alan Greenspan encouraging etc etc uh right through until the lit they don't realize that they're playing with such pie my second point high levels of that are just far too often seriously dangerous and should be in general discouraged actively that should be one of the responsibilities of Health Management including the bed and so and let me just give you an example why why do you like low rates because it encourages them why do you line more debt because it encourages growth that's the idea so let me give you the ultimate statistical test we start in 1985.
and we have been modestly increasing the debt to GDP ratio all that together just drifting slightly up due to technology and then the technology I'm in the introduction of more and more sophisticated Financial instrument but not Rising dramatic and then in 85 it kills to a 45 degree angle and shoots across any page and goes from about 1.1 times GDP to well over three so in that little window of 35 years we triple the debt to GDP ratio it's a big chunk of time it's the biggest most important economy on the planet a pretty good past so what happens to grow it inflights down and from 85 we grow more slow Grant you there are many other facts that work is a complicated picture but there is little wrong in that equation for the idea that more debt creates more growth it is not proven in the data it is held to be the case it is an assumption like most of modern economic but it is not proven by the day I would suggest that there is no evidence at all that increased levels of macro debt to GDP have anything to do with growth they have everything to do with higher risk do you have any thoughts on diversification today Ray made me think that when we're selling our resource portfolio we we have a wonderful exhibit that looks at the correlation between all the major sectors at utilities and functions and there's only one where as the time period lengthens the correlation drop and that is a result and resources drops such good attack that based on the last 80 years of data every rolling tenure period that the 10-year correlation is negative so if you believe um in inflation you know that resources do very well you also know that in the long run it's strongly negative it's negatively correlated modestly with the rest of the bullet point as we're saying today when they do well it puts burden on the rest of the economy and they do bad so there is a very strong case here for a resource for Pulling on resources just a point that um the last time we had a a Super Bubble in Commodities there were very large new minds waiting to come online what has happened since the 2011 crunch when China slowed down in its heavy industrial life and the growth rate on on all for iron ore and coal drops from double digit to zero dead flat for three years in a row by breaking the back of the of the resource industry they have not done any cap Act it takes 5 to 15 years to bring on a mine they have not been doing there are no great reserves of lithium Cobalt copper nickel even iron ore to come online this time and everybody knows it if you look at the need for these particularly green Metals Greening metal there are there it doesn't compute there are no backup resources and that applies right across the length and breadth of resource they have not been capexing even in Ireland
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