저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
연준이 금리를 0.25%p 인상했다는 결론으로 시작하며, 연준은 시장 기대대로 움직이고 물가 안정 의지는 실제로 없다는 비판적 관점을 제시한다. 연준 금리와 시장 기대: 연준 기준금리 목표 범위는 5.00~5.25%로 상향되었다. 시장은 이미 0.25%p 인상을 예상하고 있었고, 연준은 시장 기대에 맞춰 움직이는 경향이 있다. 연준의 정책 입장: 연준은 고용과 물가 안정의 이중 책무에 초점을 두고 있으며, 물가를 2%로 되돌리겠다고 말했지만 발언자는 이를 신뢰하지 않는다. 인플레이션 전망: 발언자는 2%도 누적되면 안정이 아니며 실제 인플레이션은 4~5% 수준이라고 주장한다. 정부의 재정 적자가 해소되지 않으면 금리 인상 효과는 미미하다고 본다. 경기와 고용: 주택시장 둔화와 GDP 약세를 언급하며, 1분기 물가가 전분기보다 강해져 스태그플레이션 우려를 제기한다. 고용은 양호하다고 하나 새 일자리는 저임금 서비스직 위주라고 평가한다. 향후 전망: 연준은 결국 금리를 인하하겠지만 물가가 가속하는 시점에 인하하게 될 것이라고 전망한다. 현재를 2008년보다 심각한 금융위기의 초입으로 본다. 리스크: 정부 지출 축소 없이는 통화정책의 효과가 제한적이며, 스태그플레이션이 악화될 수 있다는 점이 주요 리스크다. 대상 자산 관련: 발언에서 특정 종목이나 지수에 대한 명시적 방향성 언급은 없다.
다듬은 글
well the FED did it again they raised interest rates another quarter of a point so the FED funds target range now is five two five and a quarter now remember initially I thought that they might not have hiked this was a while ago based on the beginning of the financial crisis I thought that might have been a catalyst for the FED to pause but then the FED made it pretty clear that it wasn't going to be distracted from its Mission it never really acknowledged that this was a financial crisis kind of like a mirror bumping the road nothing to really worry about and so the FED made it clear and the markets anticipated that the FED would in fact hike by 25 basis points and that is exactly what they did that's what I've been expecting now for the last couple of months because I know from past experience that the FED always always does whatever the markets expect it to do it's kind of afraid to do anything different than what the markets expect so it weighs to figure out what the markets want and then that is exactly what it delivers He also mentioned that the Fed was going to remain focused on the Dual mandate to promote employment and price stability he talked about how important price stability is and then said that he wants to make sure that we get inflation back down to two percent again I've pointed this out if prices go up two percent a year they ain't stable stable prices stay the same that's the definition of stability not going up every year that's not stable so the FED says one thing but does another because it doesn't really want stable prices it wants prices to go up because it wants to create inflation it just thinks that if they only have two percent per year inflation that it's not that bad well it adds up and of course their two percent is really four or five percent and that's a lot of inflation he admitted in the prepared remarks that the economy had slowed considerably last year so he admitted that he talked about a Slowdown in the housing market is in fixed income he attributed that to the high higher interest rates but he did keep focusing on the fact that the labor market is still super strong the unemployment rate near 50-year lows of course we're not measuring it now the way we did 50 years ago but of course you know he doesn't bring that up he's talking about how we have this really strong labor market and so right rights can continue because the FED is not worried about the employment part of its mandate it's only worried about the price stability and he admitted that inflation is still much too high because that's exactly what the market expected them to do and that's what the set does what the markets expect but it's not going to do anything regarding bringing isolation down you know the elephant in the room with respect to inflation is that the fifthal policy it the debt not the ceiling but the fact that we're running these massive deficits and until the federal government reduces spending these quarter point incry increases are going to be completely ineffective and the problem is Al refuses to call Congress out and mention that the driving force behind all the inflation that they've been creating is reckless government spending and as long as the government keeps spending inflation is going to get worse and so is the current financial crisis and nobody wants to admit we're in a financial crisis it is worse than the one we had in 2008 it's just getting started ultimately the FED is going to cut but it's going to cut as inflation is accelerating he hasn't accomplished anything other than running up the debt weakening the economy and strengthening inflation you know the worst part about the weak GDP numbers that came out today was that the inflation numbers that are part of the GDP in q1 of this year inflation actually strengthened over the fourth quarter of last year so not only is the economy weakening but inflation is strengthening you have the worst of Both Worlds this is stagflation and it's going to get worse the real problem is that Paul Krugman still has a job but you know if you look at the jobs that have been created they're low-paying service sector jobs so what's happened during the Biden presidency is people have lost good jobs high paying jobs with benefits and they've been forced to replace them with two or three low-paying part-time jobs that's where all the jobs are coming from that's what the numbers show the only reason we're creating jobs is because we're destroying so many good jobs and you need to hobble together two or three part-time jobs to try to replace your lost income and that means that we have more jobs but they're not good jobs they're bad jobs people would rather have the jobs they lost than the crappy jobs that they're forced to work
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