저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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미국 경제는 정부 부채와 통화 팽창에 의존해 취약하며, 물가 상승이 심화되고 연준의 금리 인상도 너무 늦고 작아 스태그플레이션과 달러 위기로 이어질 것이라는 비관적 전망이다. 중국과의 경제전쟁 시나리오: 미국은 중국 수입과 자금조달에 크게 의존하므로, 중국이 교역과 미국채 매입을 끊고 보유 채권을 매각해 금을 사면 미국 경제가 붕괴할 수 있다고 주장한다. 군사적으로도 중국과 전쟁할 역량이 부족하다고 본다. 인플레이션: 소비자물가가 약 7%로 1982년 이후 최고 수준이며, 1982년 방식으로 계산하면 약 15%일 것이라 주장한다. 정부 지출 축소와 규제 완화 없이는 해결이 어렵다고 본다. 연준과 금리: 연준은 제로금리와 양적완화를 더 이상 정당화할 수 없어 금리를 올리려 하지만, 인플레이션을 잡으려면 금리가 물가상승률보다 훨씬 높아야 하며 현재 계획은 너무 작고 늦다. 결국 금리 인상은 자산 가격 붕괴를 낳고, 연준은 다시 완화로 돌아설 것이다. 달러와 위기 전개: 스태그플레이션 후 시장이 현실을 깨닫고 달러가 폭락하는 통화위기, 나아가 재정위기로 번질 것이라 전망한다. 그 과정에서 더 큰 폭락이 오고 구제금융 없이 손실이 전부 노출될 수 있으며, 최악은 하이퍼인플레이션이라고 본다. 투자 전략: 미국 성장주와 투기적 자산(암호화폐 포함)에서 빠져나와 실물자산과 가치주로 옮겨야 한다고 말한다. 최근 유럽·아시아 고배당 가치주로 자금이 이동 중이며, 일부 종목은 PER 10배 미만에 배당수익률 5~10%라고 언급하고 본인도 그런 주식을 매수 중이다. 현금·채권·연금·보험 현금가치는 인플레이션에 의해 실질 가치가 훼손되므로 피해야 한다고 본다. 채권: 미국 국채는 무위험이 아니며 '무수익 위험'이라 부르고, 현재 채권은 연준 때문에 과도하게 비싸 금리 상승 시 가격이 폭락할 것이라 경고한다. 위험 등급을 따져 자산을 골라야 한다고 조언한다.
다듬은 글
type of economic War inflation is very high which would make it worse than any individual year and then we have a real collapsing the entire economy including the cryptocurrencies government produces nothing government lives off the productivity of the private sector well the private sector is thriving then the government can take some of those resources but when the private sector is struggling with pressures like the pandemic government needs to be smaller government needs to cut back and free up those resources back to the private sector so we could use them when it needs them instead we did the opposite we compounded the problems by increasing the toll exacted by government and so we have more debt than ever before more money creation than ever before and we have created an economy that is more dependent on debt and money printing than ever before that is why inflation is about to go through the roof why is it that you think the U.S is gonna would lose an economy war with China I don't think we have the military the artillery to actually fight a war with China because China is our biggest supplier of goods and our biggest lender I mean sometimes at pan I mean China Japan kind of take turns for America's biggest creditor but certainly our trade deficit is larger with China than it is with any other nation and so America is more dependent on Goods slowing in from China than it is from any other nation and we don't have the ability to pay for those goods we don't export goods to China to cover the cost of those Imports we rely on the Chinese willingness to accept our dollar we don't even have to print them anymore so we don't have to spend the money on the paper or the ink it's just a digital you know electronic entry so we create that in the Chinese Supply us with all sorts of goods that we don't have the factories the infrastructure the trained Workforce to produce ourselves and so I think if we ever really went to war if China basically decided okay we're just going to cut America off we're not going to to be shipping merchandise to the United States nor are we going to be lending money to Americans we're not going to buy any treasuries we're not going to buy any mortgage-backed Securities or any other dollar denominated debt and as a matter of fact we're going to start selling the debt that we already hold to the extent that it matures we're not going to roll it over and we're just going to unload our dollars and we're just going to buy gold instead and I think that that would create massive pandemonium here in the United States to be a complete implosion because the only viable solution to that catastrophe would be massive Cuts in government spending dramatic repeal of all sorts of rules and regulations so that we could try to rebuild a legitimate economy because the one we have right now is completely phony it's a bubble that depends on countries like China supplying us with Goods that we don't make and loaning us the money to buy them and so if all of a sudden comes self-sufficient that's not going to have happen with our current tax and Regulatory environment you're gonna have to see major reforms but politically that's not how the pendulum is swinging everybody wants bigger government more government programs more government spending and so if we tried that in the aftermath of that type of economic War we would take a horrible situation and just make it much worse but you can't just go to cash because inflation is very high and it's eroding away the value of your cash there's no safety there you can't buy bonds bonds are even worse than cash because it's cash in the future but then meanwhile you're tying your cash up and inflation is eating it up I think the balls are already in motion because you know we had this big increase in consumer prices and prices were up seven percent maybe a little bit more that would be the highest rate I think since 1982-ish but you know if we still measured prices the way we measured them in 1982 we would have uh you know reported about a 15 percent in increase in consumer prices which would make it worse than any individual year during the 1970s or 1980 so this was a horrible year of inflation and I think this is really the beginning of the end because now the FED can no longer justify zero percent interest rates and quantitative easing it needs to raise interest rates and it's now talking about raising interest rates and it may in fact raise them we'll see it may not just talk it may actually do it but the problem is even the rate hikes they're talking about are too small and too late to make a difference because the FED is talking about raising interest rates well we got seven percent inflation you can't raise rates one or two percent rates need to be higher than the rate of inflation if you want to slow the rate of inflation so interest rates need to go I don't know 10 but of course we can't even get near ten percent we can't even get to five percent we have so much debt because of all the past money planting and all the stimulus of the FED they have created a situation where it's impossible to fight inflation and so they won't do it and that's going to be the seeds of the next Crisis because as the FED is tightening up on its monetary policy to make it less loose right we're not going to have tied money we're just going to have money that's less loose than it was before the problem is less loose is not enough to sustain the acid levels in a lot of these Financial assets so we get a crash but it's not tight enough to actually bend the inflation curve and so inflation is going to keep getting worse even as the FED is hiking rates supposedly to fight it that's going to lead to stagflation that's ultimately going to cause the FED to reverse course and start easing again even though inflation will be worse than when it started its tightening campaign and somewhere along the way the markets are going to wake up to this reality and the dollar of the bottom rather is going to drop out of the dollar and then we're going to have a currency crisis that will morph into a sovereign death crisis you know then we have a real Clap the FED has to let interest rates go way up and everything comes crashing down in a much more spectacular way than 08 except nobody gets bailed out everybody has to suffer the losses in their entirety and they'll be much bigger or they don't have the guts to do that and they just keep printing money anyway and they they print the dollar into Oblivion and we have hyperinflation which of course would be even worse so people have to go out of these risky momentum stocks into value and what we're seeing is a massive shift out of U.S growth stocks to International value stocks stocks in Europe stocks in Asia basic businesses that have real earnings right now that pay good dividends right now that's where investors are hiding out that's why you're seeing some of these stocks of 10 20 percent on the year with no news even as U.S tech stocks are cratering and all the bubble stocks including the cryptocurrencies all that stuff is going down you got to get into real assets you got to get into value you got to get out of paper and you got to get out of U.S paper in particular because we've got the biggest inflation problem that we can't do anything about because we're so loaded up with debt there's no way to fight inflation without collapsing the entire economy because the whole economy is built on the foundation of these artificially low interest rates but in order to fight inflation you have to remove that foundation and then if you do that everything built on top of it comes crashing down most of when you think about a stock market you're thinking about the entire Market an index I want to own businesses I have to get out of cash but I can own you know the momentum stocks I can't own these you know high-flying companies that don't have any earnings and I can't buy cryptocurrencies which have no value or no earnings you know they went up along with everything else I want to own something real so I own businesses tangible companies that have property plant equipment what you want to do with inflation is recognize that the biggest losers are creditors people who are owed money and are going to be paid that money in depreciated currency so you don't want to be a creditor in U.S dollars so you don't want to own cash you don't want to own bonds you don't want to be in annuities or you don't want cash value in a in an insurance policy you've got to own real things and that's why I'm buying all these foreign stocks companies that pay very high dividends I mean I'm buying stocks for some of them are trading for under 10 times earnings many of them pay dividend yields of five to ten percent I get that cash I can spend it if you're retired you can use that cash to finance your living and as the dollar goes down the value of those dividends will go up and of course the companies that I own they're all raising their prices now so they're going to raise their prices so they're going to have higher earnings and they can pay me higher dividends so those increasing dividends will keep Pace within increasing cost of living but a lot of Americans who are in the U.S stock market they're collecting no dividends they just have overpriced stocks that are falling and if they have money in bonds the low interest rates that they're earning are completely inadequate they're being more than offset by inflation if you're getting two or three percent interest and inflation is seven or ten percent you're going backwards every year and eventually you won't be able to afford to maintain your lifestyle especially if your retired bonds are riskier than stocks right now I mean it's unfortunate because bonds are where you're supposed to go when you want to play it safe because you're not taking the risk of the stock market you're guaranteed to get your money back the person who you loan the money to is committed to paying you back and you know what your return is going to be because you have a fixed interest but the problem is anyone who buys bonds now in this environment is overpaying the prices are inflated because of the Fed so you're paying this ridiculously high price for an asset that barely throws off a yield interest rates eventually rise the price of the bond collapses but meanwhile inflation is destroying the value of the bonds of the cash rather that the bonds are going to pay you bonds are extremely risky I mean people talk about treasuries as risk-free return I've been calling it return free risk for years nothing's safe anymore thanks to the central Bankers so you have to look at degrees of risk
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