저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 연준의 화폐 발행과 재정 적자가 2008년보다 훨씬 심각한 위기를 부를 것이며, 인플레이션이 핵심 변수이다. 정부 지출과 생산성: 실업자에게 정부가 돈을 지급하면 생산 없이 소비만 늘어 물가가 오른다고 주장한다. 국채와 이자 부담: 정부가 차입으로 지출을 메우면 미래 세대가 원금과 이자를 모두 부담하게 되며, 부채가 약 30조 달러에 이르러 정상 금리로는 상환이 불가능하다고 본다. 연준의 화폐 발행: 민간이 국채를 사기 어려워지자 연준이 돈을 찍어 국채를 매입하고 있으며, 지출의 절반가량이 인쇄된 돈으로 이뤄진다고 설명한다. 인플레이션은 세금: 인플레이션은 사실상 세금과 같아 구매력을 빼앗는다고 본다. 현대통화이론(MMT)은 환상이며 결국 재앙으로 끝난다고 경고한다. 투자 함의: 향후 10년은 인플레이션이 투자 전략의 핵심 고려사항이라고 강조하지만, 구체적 종목·자산 매수 권유는 자막 범위에서 확인되지 않는다. 출연자 전망: 2008년보다 큰 위기가 올 것이라는 장기적이고 비관적인 견해를 밝힌다.
다듬은 글
the taxpayers are actually on the hook they have to pay all the interest it is now impossible but when the Federal Reserve monetizes that the crisis that's coming is going to be far worse see when people are productive when they have a job and they go to work and their labor is used to increase the supply of goods or services available to the public right you have a job you do work and your work either AIDS in the production of a good that people want or need or you're helping to provide a service that people need and in exchange for that help you earn money and now you can use that money to help buy the goods and services that you yourself help to produce and the more productive you are well the more you earn and therefore the greater share of what Society produces you are able to enjoy your self but when the government just prints money and gives it to you when you have all these unemployed people who are sitting at home just getting a check from the government they produce nothing they added no goods or services to the economy yet they can consume goods and services in the same proportions as if somebody had actually done work and actually been you know a productive member of society so what does this do all this does is drive up prices because if your work adds to the goods and services and now you're consuming the goods and services you help create that's fine but if now you start consuming goods and services yet you didn't help create any of those goods and services you just have more money chasing a diminished supply of goods and services and prices are going to go up and so when politicians are constantly running for reelection they don't want to have to tell the voters how much all these government and programs cost another way the government can do it which is really the first way just delayed is by borrowing the money and I'm talking about borrowing it legitimately from a private lender who is willing to take money and loan it to the US government by buying a U.S treasury bond from the government now when governments do this they're just delaying the taxation into the future because whatever money the government borrows today must be repaid tomorrow and where is the government going to get the money to repay the bondholders Well from the taxpayers of the future but in the meantime the taxpayers of today have to pay the interest on the money that's been borrowed so in other words when government pays for its spending programs by borrowing the taxpayers are actually on the hook for an even greater cost because not only do they pay back the principal but they have to pay all the interest it's just like if you go out if you want to buy a new television set if you just buy it it's cheaper than using a credit card and then paying your monthly your minimum payments every month because by the time you pay off the television set maybe you've paid two or three times the actual cost because of all the interest that you you've paid over the years well that's the same thing when you pay for government programs with debt by the time you repay the debt the government programs were a lot more expensive than if you just paid for them with current taxation see now the government has to resort to a new method of Finance because it is now impossible for the government to borrow money from private sources because it can't afford to pay a high enough interest rate to private lenders to make this a viable transaction and that is because of the enormity of the debt that we currently have right the US government has borrowed so much money to try to delay the Day of Reckoning for so long and kick the can down the road as we've gone deeper and deeper into debt now that we have a national debt that's approaching 30 trillion dollars there is no way that the U.S government can and finance that I mean repaying the debt is completely impossible I mean not with money that has any real purchasing power but at this point the principle of the debt is just so enormous that even if the government was forced to pay a normal rate of interest it could not actually make those payments so what's happening now is that the government is financing its expenditures through inflation and the way that process works is the government issues debt and then it's the Federal Reserve that buys that debt but when the Federal Reserve buys the debt it has to expand the money supply to do it see when the U.S government borrows from a private lender it's taking money from one person and loaning it to another it doesn't increase the money supply and the person who is loaning the money to the government can't also spend that money because they've loaned it to the government and now the government gives it to somebody else else to spend but when the Federal Reserve monetizes that debt and prints new money then it's all new spending in the economy because the government hasn't taken money away from anybody but it's giving new money to other people and another way to think about it is when the government taxes you to pay for its spending it literally takes your money right your money just comes right out of your paycheck if it's an income tax the government takes your money and then they give that money to somebody else and now somebody else spends the money that you earn you can't spend it because the government took it and gave it to somebody else so your standard of living your purchasing power is diminished because you have less money to spend but when the government doesn't raise your taxes if it just prints money and then gives it to that same individual to spend your purchasing power at least in dollar terms hasn't been diminished but now you have another guy or gal who has given all this cash that can now go out and spend it and so what happens is that person competes with you to buy stuff and prices are Bid higher and so the result of that type of Taxation is that prices go up everything becomes more expensive so instead of the government taking your money the government takes the purchasing power of your money and that's a tax if you look at what's happening now especially since the beginning of the pandemic government debt and money printing is off the charts I mean we've never experienced anything like this in fact I think about half of the money that the government is now spending is being printed by the Federal Reserve so it's not really borrow and spend anymore it's print and spend and right now nobody's seems to think that this is a problem people seem to think that we've stumbled on the equivalent of a monetary Fountain of Youth people like to call it modern monetary Theory which is we can have whatever we want as long as government for insta money to pay for it that there's no limit that government is free as long as they print money now of course why didn't we realize this in the past I mean why have we been paying taxes all these years if all we had to do is print money after all the printing press has been around for hundreds of years and so if we could have whatever we want by the magic of government printing money what's the point of all of us having to pay taxes the reality is is this is a fantasy that is going to end in disaster see there's a big difference between earning money and just having the government print it well I can assure everybody today that the crisis that's coming is going to be far worse than anything that was experienced in 2008 but it's going to be of a different nature and there's going to be a different outcome of course the cause is the same it's the Federal Reserve and monetary policy and to a lesser but also important extent government fiscal policy which is helping to drive the Reckless monetary policy but I think the way it's going to play out in the financial markets is going to be a lot different I think the important consideration this time around is going to be inflation and I think inflation is the primary factor that everybody should take into consideration when trying to formulate an investment strategy a special one that is going to do well in the coming decade and you have to think of inflation not just as a monetary phenomena and not just as the effect that inflation is going to have on prices and not just consumer prices but and asset prices but you also have to think of about inflation its most basic form which is taxation inflation is really a tax I mean that's basically what it boils down to and you have to understand this because governments really have two ways of paying for their expenditures the most honest way is through current taxation now obviously that could be unpopular for the people who are paying the taxes right nobody likes to send money to the US government
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