저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
달러 약세와 인플레이션 심화를 전제로 금·원자재·신흥국 투자가 유리하고, 달러 자산(미국채·미국주식)은 회피해야 한다는 주장. 달러 약세의 수혜: 신흥국은 달러 부채 부담이 줄어 경제에 로켓 연료가 되며, 원자재 관련 투자가 크게 성과를 낼 것이라고 주장. 금: 실물 금을 안전자산·가치저장 수단으로 보유할 것을 권하며, 비트코인은 버블이자 안전자산이 아니라고 비판. 금은 보석·반도체·항공우주·치과 등 산업 수요가 있다고 설명. 금광주: 일부 금광주는 10배, 20배, 50배까지 오를 잠재력이 있고 큰 위험이 있지만 상승 여력이 하방 위험보다 크다고 봄. 인플레이션 구조: 2008년 이후 정부가 만든 인플레이션이 주식·채권·부동산·수집품 등 자산가격으로 이동했으며, 저금리가 과잉 대출과 버블을 키운다고 주장. 소비자물가도 상승 중이라고 설명. 팬데믹 영향: 팬데믹은 디플레이션이 아니라 정부 부채와 통화 증발을 늘려 인플레이션을 가속화했다고 주장. 세금으로서의 인플레이션: 바이든 행정부는 증세할 것이며, 가장 큰 세금은 인플레이션이 될 것. 특히 임금소득자·저소득층·중산층·은퇴자의 저축이 잠식된다고 주장. 달러 전망: 달러는 이미 하락 중이며 향후 붕괴 수준의 하락과 달러 위기가 올 수 있다고 봄. 따라서 미국 달러 자산 완전 청산을 권고. 미국채: 채권 보유자가 가장 큰 손실을 입을 것이라며 미국채 매도를 권고. 미국주식: 과대평가돼 있으며 이익의 대부분이 달러 기준이라 달러 약세와 높은 법인세로 주주 몫이 줄어든다고 주장. 역사적 근거: 2000~2010년에는 달러지수가 약 120에서 약 70으로 떨어졌고, 유가·금·은·신흥국 주식이 크게 올랐으며 S&P500은 하락. 1970년대에는 독일 마르크·스위스 프랑·금·원유가 급등. 이번에는 그보다 더 나쁜 스태그네이션과 인플레이션이 올 것이라고 주장. 경제 철학: 인플레이션은 바람직하지 않으며, 소비자가 원하는 것은 물가 하락이고 이것이 자본주의의 생산성 향상 과정이라고 설명. 정부 인플레이션은 하락할 가격을 막아 소비자의 구매력을 빼앗는 세금과 같다고 주장.
다듬은 글
emerging markets in particular that are going to benefit dramatically from the declining dollar because a lot of their debts are in dollars and basically their debts get wiped out as the dollar declines and that is rocket fuel for their economies so these Emerging Markets are going to Boom Investments that are linked to Commodities are going to do extremely well you need to own physical gold as a safe haven as a store of value don't get conned into Bitcoin Bitcoin is a bubble Bitcoin isn't a safe haven it's not a store of value you can't store what you don't have when you own gold what you're doing is storing the future use of gold as a metal people need gold they'll always need Gold Jewelers need gold computer chip manufacturers the Aerospace industry Dentistry gold is the most useful the most valuable metal on the planet and it doesn't Decay but gold is to preserve your wealth you're not going to get rich owning physical gold you'll avoid going broke but if you really want to get rid sure you know get a lot richer gold stocks I believe have enormous potential I think some of these stocks can go up 10 times 20 times 50 times so I think a lot of money is going to be made in Gold stocks of course there's a lot more risk in Gold stocks I mean you know no pain no gain right you can't get big returns unless you're willing to take big risks but I think the upside potential is enormous compared to the downside risk so if you are a risk taker I think these risks make a lot of sense now of course a lot of the inflation that government has been creating since the 2008 financial crisis a lot of that inflation has temporarily moved into asset prices that's the stock market the bond market the real estate market the market for Collectibles other things that are you know in short supply and so when inflation pushes up asset prices people don't complain because the people that own those assets of course feel much richer now if you don't own those assets obviously it's problematic if you want to buy it for example if housing prices keep going up and you don't own a house and you want to buy one the fact that prices keep going up that's not a good thing now the way the government has offset that is by keeping interest rates artificially low so that people can afford to overpay for houses as the prices keep going up but again all of that helps distort the economy and fuel the bubble but beneath the surface consumer prices have been rising the last thing the government wants is for the public to realize how much inflation there is they certainly don't want Bond investors to realize that the key to sustaining the bubble economy the key to sustaining massive and unsustainable government deficits in the short run is artificially low interest rates and the fed's only justification for keeping interest rates artificially low is the Preposterous idea that there's not enough inflation so this is all a ruse because the government trying to justify a reckless monetary policy that is designed to protect the government not the economy are not the people but we're about to suffer the consequences of all this inflation in a way that's far greater than what I even imagined and a lot of that too has to do with what's happened during the pandemic which is obviously not an event that I had built into my forecast but nonetheless is simply accelerating everything that I have been forecasting and will make it worse because a lot of people their initial response to the pandemic was oh this is deflationary right this means people are not going to have demand for things because they're staying at home well that's true a lot of people stayed at home and so they didn't buy as much you know airline tickets or stay in hotels but they had no problem shopping on Amazon and so it wasn't that demand stopped during the pandemic it just uh transferred money that consumers weren't spending uh traveling they simply spent it on on other things government produces nothing government lives off the productivity of the private sector well the private sector is thriving then the government can take some of those resources but when the private sector is struggling with pressures like the pandemic government needs to be smaller government needs to cut back and free up those resources back to the private sector so we could use them when it needs them instead we did the opposite we compounded the problems by increasing the toll exacted by government and so we have more debt than ever before more money creation than ever before and we have created an economy that is more dependent on debt and money printing than ever before that is why inflation is about to go through the roof and think about it as a tax the government is about to take most of what you have not through taxation now they're going to increase taxes there's no question that the Biden Administration is going to raise tax and if you think otherwise you're delusional but the main tax that is going to hit everybody is going to be inflation especially if you're poor or middle class and you're working and all you have is your wages and those wages are going to be dramatically diminished in value because of inflation but probably more important to this audience if you are a saver if you are retired or if you are nearing retirement you are about to be decimated your entire life's savings is about to be taxed away a by inflation the dollar is going to be destroyed that's why the US dollar is already falling despite the fact that all the experts predicted it would rise and now it's poised for a much bigger loss so what do you do how do you invest in the era of inflation well go back to the first decade of this century and that will give you a Playbook you can also go back to the 1970s and see what performed well during that decade but what we're about to experience is going to be so much worse but if you go back to that time period just go back to 2000 and 2010 decade and that's when the Fed was printing all the money to kind of stimulate the economy after the.com Bubble Burst and what they did to try to push up housing prices and then how they reacted immediately to the bursting of the housing bubble what did well the dollar fell dramatically from 2000 to 2010 dollar Index was about 1 20 and it went down to about 70.
oil prices went from about twenty dollars a barrel to 150 gold wind from under 300 to 1900 silver went from four dollars an ounce to fifty dollars an ounce Emerging Markets just killed it they were up four or five hundred percent while the U.S stock market went down first decade of the century the s p went down in value and of course the real value of U.S stocks was down even more if you measured them in foreign currencies or if you measure them in the price of gold well the dollar is going to be a lot weaker now than it was then I think metal prices gold prices other commodity prices are going to be much stronger in this decade than they were then and so I think the relative gains that investors will enjoy by investing in overseas markets will be even greater than the big gains that they enjoyed in the first decade of this century and if you go back to the 1970s what were the good Investments of the 1970s when we had stagflation this time it's going to be worse stagnation and worse inflation what happened the Deutsche Mark triple the N triple the Swiss franc triple gold went from 35 an ounce to 850.
oil went from three dollars a barrel to thirty dollars a barrel I mean it was huge increases in commodity prices as the dollar collapsed the only reason the dollar stopped falling in 1980 was because we had Ronald Reagan coming in and we had Paul volcker allowing short-term interest rates to rise to 20 percent that's how broke we are today compared to 1980 1980 we were still the world's biggest predator Nation now we're the world's biggest debtor back in 1980 we still had Trade Surplus now we have massive trade deficits so this is going to be a massive change I think the dollar is going to not just decline but collapse I think the next Crisis is not just a financial crisis but a dollar crisis and so the most important thing that you could do now is to completely divest of US dollar assets you got to get out of U.S Bonds in particular bondholders are going to be the biggest losers as the dollar collapses because all bonds are promises to be paid dollars in the future and as little as dollars by now they're going to buy a lot less in the future U.S stocks are way overpriced and their earnings are predominantly in dollars sure you have multinationals that are earning foreign currencies but a lot of their earnings come from the U.S and those earnings are a going to decline and are going to be worth of less but of course taxes are going up so whatever American companies end up earning they'll be less of it available for their American shareholders because of high corporate taxes the Federal Reserve has been promising Americans more inflation well that's one promise that they're going to deliver on in fact they're going to deliver on it beyond their wildest expectations and contrary to what everybody is saying inflation is not a good thing inflation is not desirable higher inflation is not making progress what people want is a lower cost of living when prices go down that's progress and that's capitalism that's how capitalism works when you have real capitalism businesses become more productive they become more efficient they develop economies of scale and as they do that the cost of production comes down and as the cost of production goes down demand goes up because as prices go down more people can afford to buy more stuff and it's falling prices that have historically driven a rising standard of living well the government has interrupted that benevolent process through inflation and a lot of the times you know inflation doesn't simply make prices go up inflation also prevents prices from going down and a decline in a price would have been a windfall for the consumer when the consumer is denied that windfall by government it still a tax the government is still taking your purchasing power because the goods and services that you want to consume are more expensive as a result of the government inflation
Comments 0